Election predictions thread

[bmw]

Here are mine:

-The winner of Pennsylvania is our next President.
-Biden and Peters both win MI by +3.
-Trump takes Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina
-House remains in the hands of Democrats
-Senate favors Democrats 50-49, pending a Georgia runoff election.

So the big one - I'm sticking with Trump with a super narrow win in Pennsylvania. Final electoral result - 279-259.

[Rate This]

Here are mine:

-The winner of Pennsylvania is our next President.
-Biden and Peters both win MI by +3.
-Trump takes Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, Iowa, and North Carolina
-House remains in the hands of Democrats
-Senate favors Democrats 50-49, pending a Georgia runoff election.

So the big one - I'm sticking with Trump with a super narrow win in Pennsylvania. Final electoral result - 279-259.

Was hoping we would get this going today. Post your map please for reference. Anybody who wants to play along with us can go to 270towin.com and make your own map prediction and share an image of it here in this thread.

I’ll be posting my final tomorrow. I think you’re a little bullish on Trumps chances. I do agree that all roads lead through Pennsylvania. If Trump loses one of Florida or North Carolina he’s got almost no hope. Both of these are fast counting states (they don’t have to wait to count their absentee votes) so we should have some idea of where things are headed by the end of Tuesday. It’ll take a couple days to know for certain probably.

[bmw]

[bmw]

My confidence level is very high that Trump holds TX and GA and wins the near-coin-flips of OH, NC, and FL. Not so much on AZ and PA, but I think there's enough "shy" Trump vote out there to narrowly put those states into the red.

I know I heard somewhere that there's 7 counties in PA that don't even start counting until Wednesday, so there's a good chance, in my view, that we don't have a declared winner within 24 hours after the polls close (unless Biden takes 2 of 3 of OH, NC, and FL).

[Rate This]

My confidence level is very high that Trump holds TX and GA and wins the near-coin-flips of OH, NC, and FL. Not so much on AZ and PA, but I think there's enough "shy" Trump vote out there to narrowly put those states into the red.

I know I heard somewhere that there's 7 counties in PA that don't even start counting until Wednesday, so there's a good chance, in my view, that we don't have a declared winner within 24 hours after the polls close (unless Biden takes 2 of 3 of OH, NC, and FL).

If the thing about those 7 counties is true it could make the idea to declare a winner on election night as the basis for legal challenges rather unwise. It’s better to let it play out. The Trump campaign is playing with fire there I think.

My thought is that the shy Trump vote is overblown this time if the effect was ever real to begin with. Obviously we will see. I’ve had the sneaking suspicion for a couple weeks now as turnout has gone through the roof that the polls may actually be undercounting Biden especially in places like Florida and Texas. Pollsters adjusted their models based on what happened in 2016. But turnout among key groups like adults 18-34 is way up compared to 4 years ago. That mostly benefits Biden. I think this electorate and the 2016 electorate will bare little resemblance to each other in terms of demographic distribution.

[Lester The Nightfly]

Biden - 51%
Trump - 46%

Senate turns

[Honeyman]

Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States, winning the electoral college 306-231.

Florida, as always, will disappoint and vote Republican.

Biden will win Georgia.

Despite tRump declaring victory before it's over, Biden wins Pennsylvania.

[Bryce]

I agree with the concept that whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the White House. Even Nate Silver has commented that if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Biden becomes the underdog. I think Trump will pull out a victory in Pennsylvania.

Another thing. If Trump garners just 18% of the black vote, which is entirely possible, he will win also.

[TC Talks]

I'm taking a conservative guess. I still think Georgia and Florida are possibilities. Trump is hammering Pennsylvania hard but I think that he will just make the race a bit closer but won't win it. The East side of the state just isn't down with his kind of politics.
D312 R226

The Senate will go to the Democrats, however I think Gary Peters is in trouble. D 52 R49



I will further predict that Trump will go kicking and screaming even if it's very clear he lost.

[bmw]

TCT - your map is plausible with one exception - Indiana. It is the reddest of red states - in fact, it is even a heavier red favorite (95) than California is blue (94).

EDIT - oh, and Arkansas. It is one of only 2 red states rated at 98.

[zzand]

Indiana will stay Red.

[Honeyman]

Joe Biden will be the next President of the United States, winning the electoral college 306-231

You gonna offer your prediction, dolt?

[Honeyman]

Yo DOLT:

Don't have to.

Yet you are in the election prediction thread.

There is nobody on this site who can even come remotely close to your abject stupidity.

[Matt]

I'm not quite ready to make a prediction on the presidential race, but I do think that IF Trump wins Michigan, John James also is elected. If John James is elected, Republicans likely hold the Senate.

I have some general thoughts on what could happen, which I'll post later tonight or early tomorrow. A preview: I don't think anyone knows what will happen when the counting starts.

[Bryce]

It would seem major retailers are betting on a Trump win. National retailers are having stores located in cities with Democratic voting majorities, as well as Democratic political control, board up their storefronts prior to the election.

I doubt they're worried about a bunch of Republicans storming their retail areas and busting windows and looting in the wake of a Biden win. There is a fair amount of cost involved with this. Looks like their money is on Trump being re-elected.