I'd say the Republican candidate is in trouble.
I am unsure if the below figures are still valid, since the below CNN article was written at 12:35a ET this morning:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/12/politics ... index.htmlIn Clark County, Nevada’s largest, which includes Las Vegas, CNN estimates there are roughly 24,000 more mail-in ballots to be counted, along with about 15,000 provisional ballots and ballots that need to be cured.
In Washoe County, Nevada’s second-most populous, there were about 10,000 ballots counted on Friday, and CNN estimates there are roughly 12,000 remaining.
Clark County registrar Joe Gloria said Friday that the county expected to be largely finished with the remaining mail-in votes by Saturday. Those ballots are being inspected at the county’s counting board, Gloria said.
State law allows for mail-in ballots to be received in Nevada through Saturday, though the ballots need to have been postmarked by Election Day to be valid.
Political organizations, especially Democratic-leaning unions, that spent months urging people to vote in Nevada’s key Senate race are now turning their focus toward “curing” flawed mail-in ballots in the still-uncalled contest.
“Curing” is a process in which voters correct problems with their mail ballot, ensuring that it gets counted. This can mean validating that a ballot is truly from them by adding a missing signature, or by addressing signature-match issues. The deadline for voters to “cure” their ballots in Nevada is Monday, November 14, according to state law.
Here is a good county-by-county view, with statewide data that appears to be more recent than that offered by CNN:
https://www.politico.com/2022-election/ ... da/senate/
C-M is ahead 52/45 in Clark County and 50/47 in Washoe County. Five percent of the vote still needs to be counted in the former (about 32,000 votes) and eight percent in the latter (about 14,000 votes). I realize the first figure is lower than the total 39,000 ballots mentioned in CNN's story, while my latter figure is about 2,000 ballots greater.
If the existing percentages hold, then C-M would pick up about 23,600 more votes and Laxalt would pick up about 22,400 more votes, based on my numbers. Laxalt currently leads by 862 votes according to Politico. Including the above illustrative numbers would place C-M in the lead by about 300 votes.
Now here's where it gets interesting! Rural Lincoln County in SE Nevada still has about 500 votes left to count. So far, Laxalt leads C-M there by a margin of 80/15. If you give her 75 of the remaining votes and him 425 of the remaining votes, he would jump into the lead for the whole state by a margin of - get this - 50 (!!!!) votes.