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Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619
Election predictions thread
Re: Election predictions thread
I'm not making predictions this year, but I find it fascinating that we have an OG election denier on the ballot in GA and there have been no predictions on whether she will accept her second defeat.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: Election predictions thread
Here are the polling average baselines as they stand today for the purpose of our bet:
+1.4 Walker - Georgia (you are so lucky they dropped the Warnock +6 poll from the average today
+6.2 Budd - North Carolina (ouch for me, I didn't know it had gotten this high)
+3.4 Lexalt - Nevada (same here - I'm worried about this margin)
+0.4 Oz - Pennsylvania
+0.3 Masters - Arizona
And while we never clarified this - the Georgia race margin, if it goes to a runoff, will be determined how? Original vote tonight or runoff? You make the call on this one before 8 PM tonight RT, I'm fine with using either. If you don't chime in, I'm going to say tonight's original vote tally is what counts.
+1.4 Walker - Georgia (you are so lucky they dropped the Warnock +6 poll from the average today
+6.2 Budd - North Carolina (ouch for me, I didn't know it had gotten this high)
+3.4 Lexalt - Nevada (same here - I'm worried about this margin)
+0.4 Oz - Pennsylvania
+0.3 Masters - Arizona
And while we never clarified this - the Georgia race margin, if it goes to a runoff, will be determined how? Original vote tonight or runoff? You make the call on this one before 8 PM tonight RT, I'm fine with using either. If you don't chime in, I'm going to say tonight's original vote tally is what counts.
Re: Election predictions thread
Let’s use tonight’s, the suspense would be unbearable if we wait until December…bmw wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:36 amHere are the polling average baselines as they stand today for the purpose of our bet:
+1.4 Walker - Georgia (you are so lucky they dropped the Warnock +6 poll from the average today
+6.2 Budd - North Carolina (ouch for me, I didn't know it had gotten this high)
+3.4 Lexalt - Nevada (same here - I'm worried about this margin)
+0.4 Oz - Pennsylvania
+0.3 Masters - Arizona
And while we never clarified this - the Georgia race margin, if it goes to a runoff, will be determined how? Original vote tonight or runoff? You make the call on this one before 8 PM tonight RT, I'm fine with using either. If you don't chime in, I'm going to say tonight's original vote tally is what counts.
Are we using RCP numbers here?
Re: Election predictions thread
Those are the RCP polling averages. So per our bet, the candidate must win by a full tenth of a point more than those numbers over the opponent. In 3 of the 5 races anyways. If any of the results are really close to those - like, within a tenth or a few tenths, then we may need to wait for the official results to be fully tallied which may take some time.
Re: Election predictions thread
What is the orange hippo's response going to be if there is a GA run off?bmw wrote: ↑Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:36 amHere are the polling average baselines as they stand today for the purpose of our bet:
+1.4 Walker - Georgia (you are so lucky they dropped the Warnock +6 poll from the average today
+6.2 Budd - North Carolina (ouch for me, I didn't know it had gotten this high)
+3.4 Lexalt - Nevada (same here - I'm worried about this margin)
+0.4 Oz - Pennsylvania
+0.3 Masters - Arizona
And while we never clarified this - the Georgia race margin, if it goes to a runoff, will be determined how? Original vote tonight or runoff? You make the call on this one before 8 PM tonight RT, I'm fine with using either. If you don't chime in, I'm going to say tonight's original vote tally is what counts.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
- teetoppz28
- Posts: 818
- Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:01 pm
Re: Election predictions thread
Thanks. Now I have to clean my monitor of the coffee I just spit...
Dropping knowledge on forum MAGAts.
Unapologetically intellectually superior.
Unapologetically intellectually superior.
Re: Election predictions thread
I would be shocked if there isn't a run off. Isn't it 50 percent plus 1 vote? As for polls, after 2016 I don't trust any of them. The only numbers that mean anything are vote totals.
Re: Election predictions thread
Yes 50% plus 1 vote gets you home free. 49.999% or less and we’ll spend $1 Billion + between now and December.
Re: Election predictions thread
My portfolio is looking pretty good so far.
Re: Election predictions thread
Can you elaborate on your exact picks for each of those?
Also since RCP keeps putting it in my face with a well written why bother clicking when it tells you all you need to know headline... Newt Gingrich went on Hannity's FOX show Friday and gave the following prediction:
Republicans go +3 to +5 in the senate and win NH, NV, AZ and GA with no runoff and pick up 45 seats in the house. My... he's confident.
- Colonel Flagg
- Posts: 1374
- Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2008 3:54 pm
Re: Election predictions thread
Colonel Flagg still has a landline, but you didn't hear it from me.
I thought I read somewhere that Turkey top carries a "burner phone"... but that's off the record, of course.
"Don't you knock when you enter a room?"
Re: Election predictions thread
$100 to win $356 - Republicans hold exactly 53 Seats
$850 to win $970 - NO on Dems winning both House & Senate
$212 to win $304 - Republicans to contorl Senate
$414 to win $772 - Oz to win PA
$850 to win $985 - Republicans to control House
$346 to win $440 - Vance to win OH Senate seat
$18 to win $92 - Dixon to win MI Governor
$42 to win $94 - Republican to win NH Senate seat
$148 to win $158 - Republican to win GA Governor race
$224 to win $256 - Republican to win Utah Senate seat
$14 to win $24 - Republican to win Kansas Governor race
Potential profit - $1233
I'm expecting to profit $750 to $850 as I know a few of those are long-shots. Republicans getting exactly 53 would be the icing on the cake.
Re: Election predictions thread
Will this be the last year for that and similar sites, beemer? I thought either you mentioned that, or I read it somewhere.
The censorship king from out of state.
Re: Election predictions thread
The feds have ordered them to be shut down by February. They have sued and currently have a request for preliminary injunction to block the shutdown on a judge's desk. I've read through the lawsuit and the applicable laws - and I'm no lawyer, but I think PredictIt has a pretty good case. But then again, they're fighting the federal government.
Re: Election predictions thread
Ok RT - I concede. Either post your pic here or PM it to me. I will keep it as my profile pic from Nov. 13 to 26.
You certainly had a better handle on these midterms than I did. I thought the Republicans had enough of the traditional metrics strongly on their side, but there were obviously other over-riding factors including abortion and Trump-fatigue.
You certainly had a better handle on these midterms than I did. I thought the Republicans had enough of the traditional metrics strongly on their side, but there were obviously other over-riding factors including abortion and Trump-fatigue.