I would only add that this isn't occurring in a vacuum and that it shouldn't come as a surprise. I attended a dinner meeting with my financial advisers in Palm Springs last January and they called this point by point right down to which financial reporting quarters it was likely to unfold (For the record, it's happening a little sooner than they predicted). Suffice to say it doesn't have a damn thing to do with the media. It's the inverted yield curve and the tariffs largely responsible. Period. MW is also correct about cash flow leverage multiples and the labor pool.MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Thu Aug 15, 2019 9:10 pmSorry, but a recession *is* coming. Might take another 12 to 18 months to officially arrive, but one is around the corner. We are due. We typically see a recession within a decade's time from the prior one. In fact, it is rare to go a complete decade without a recession.
A lot of small cap & mid cap companies are seeing their cash flow leverage multiples rise to levels that are making lenders uncomfortable. Tightness in the labor pool isn't helping. The trade war definitely isn't helping.
Capital markets are going to tighten as debt comes up for maturity, and we're going to see an increase in corporate bankruptcy filings.
Next thing to watch for is falling corporate earnings. The Trump tax cut has already been played out. In essence it was a one-off shot that is no longer particularly relevant looking forward. It's worth saying again, when earnings start taking a hit that's when it will start getting butt ugly.