2020 Presidential Polls

[bmw]

Trump appears to be gaining ground in Michigan, based on the CNBC poll. I predict Trump will win Michigan in a squeaker.

On TV in Detroit, a ton of ads from Trump have been airing for about the past 10 days.

That's a rather bold prediction. Of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, I actually find Michigan to be the toughest for Trump to win this time around. If Michigan goes Trump's way, then so does at least Pennsylvania.

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Trump appears to be gaining ground in Michigan, based on the CNBC poll. I predict Trump will win Michigan in a squeaker.

On TV in Detroit, a ton of ads from Trump have been airing for about the past 10 days.

That's a rather bold prediction. Of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, I actually find Michigan to be the toughest for Trump to win this time around. If Michigan goes Trump's way, then so does at least Pennsylvania.

And his chances become tenuous indeed. The CNBC survey is so out there compared to everything else that we need more data.

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For now bmw you can forget Minnesota:

June 20

Gravis
Minnesota:
Biden 58 Trump 42

[TC Talks]

Trump is burning through his cash early. The ads attacking Biden on China will blow up in his face given his effort to buddy up to Xi.

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June 22

Trafalger Group (R)
Michigan:
Biden 46 Trump 45

Trafalger appears to be an iffy pollster.. 538 gives them a C- In it’s pollster ratings and they have a Republican bias of about 2 points. This result is incredibly different than everything else we have seen so I would take it with a pail of salt until proven otherwise...

[bmw]

This result is incredibly different than everything else we have seen so I would take it with a pail of salt until proven otherwise...

So you're just ignoring the CNBC poll immediately preceding this one? That one had Biden +2.

[Mr.Transistor]

Trump is going to get destroyed and deep down he knows it.

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This result is incredibly different than everything else we have seen so I would take it with a pail of salt until proven otherwise...

So you're just ignoring the CNBC poll immediately preceding this one? That one had Biden +2.

That poll has consistently been producing outliers. The other two polls recently had him up double digits... also the pollster gets a C- in 538’s rankings and it’s an online poll.. all of these things count against it.

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Figured out that the Florida and Michigan polls I posted we already had. Oops.

Harvard-Harris
General Election:
Biden 56 Trump 44

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June 24

PPP
Texas:
Trump 48 Biden 46

New York Times / Siena
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 36

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June 24

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 41

Quinnipiac
Ohio:
Biden 46 Trump 45

Marquette
Wisconsin:
Biden 49 Trump 41

PPP
North Carolina:
Biden 48 Trump 46

[Turkeytop]

I saw one of Trump's campaign ads on TV last night. He was boasting about the strongest economy ever and the millions of jobs he's created. How's that going over with the people who have lost their jobs, their businesses or their loved ones?

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I saw one of Trump's campaign ads on TV last night. He was boasting about the strongest economy ever and the millions of jobs he's created. How's that going over with the people who have lost their jobs, their businesses or their loved ones?

See deficits; double digits...

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Speaking of those double digit leads...

June 25

CNBC
General Election:
Biden 47 Trump 38

New York Times / Siena
Florida:
Biden 47 Trump 41

Wisconsin:
Biden 49 Trump 38

Michigan:
Biden 47 Trump 36

Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 40

North Carolina:
Biden 49 Trump 40

Arizona:
Biden 48 Trump 41

[ftballfan]

I could see a lot of scenarios for the electoral college. There's a plausible 269-269 scenario (which involves Biden flipping AZ, MI, and WI only; Trump keeps PA, NC, FL, GA, OH, and TX) while I could also see a scenario in which Biden gets over 400 electoral votes (Biden would have to win all of the following to get over 400: AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, OH, PA, TX, WI)