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bmw wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:15 pm
I'm going to make 2 predictions. And you know my track record on predictions.
1 - By this time next year, the accepted mortality rate worldwide will be at 2.5% or less.
2 - The death toll in the United States as of 12/31/2020 as attributed to the Coronavirus will be less than 2,000 people. And I'll even give 3 to 1 odds (meaning 75% chance) that it is under 1,000 people. As such, the Coronavirus will be responsible for less than 5% of all deaths this year attributed to viruses.
Still feeling good about your predictions? We aren't even to April.
How are your odds on Trump winning after this week's display of pure leadership in diverse times. Do you still want to get all our businesses reopened?
This is going to be awful. I can barely think about the next 90 days.
For Kristian Trumpers are not serving our Lord Christ, but their own appetites. By smooth talk and flattery they deceive the minds of naive people.
-Romans 16:18
I stand by prediction #1, and based on some recent articles I've been reading, it looks like the real number will be somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5% once we have a lot more data.
I was wrong on the latter prediction. It turns out that as of March 11 when I wrote this, apparently far more people ALREADY had it than we knew. And by the time state governments started taking action, it was already too late. Hopefully we some form of leveling off of numbers this coming week when we actually start to see results of the shutdowns in the 10-14-day trailing data.
And yes.....businesses should be allowed to re-open, albeit in a very restricted fashion, sooner than later. Nobody seems to want to talk about the numerous health consequences of sharp economic decline.
As to Trump winning in November, I continue to give him a slight edge over whoever the Democrat is (presumably Biden). His approval numbers are higher than ever right now.
Whitmer's actions will dramatically help your odds. The biggest challenge I see is that most will never know we have it. I hope we have the chance to check to see if we have the antibodies.
Cuomo is suggesting NYC is three weeks from and the apex. Detroit is three weeks behind NYC, our area has just scratched the surface and the UP and NE Michigan hasn't begun. I am advising clients that are looking at June before we return to social distancing.
For Kristian Trumpers are not serving our Lord Christ, but their own appetites. By smooth talk and flattery they deceive the minds of naive people.
-Romans 16:18
