Jason Kragt wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:11 am
sinklair wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 12:16 am
I’ve been forecasting for longer than Blake has been alive. I’m pretty sure I’m more than qualified to comment on the pseudo science he claims to use to forecast school closings. It’s not a technique that’s scientifically authenticated by any real meteorological accreditation source, Luke the AMS, NWA, etc. it’s not taught in school. It’s just made up. WOOD TV should drop the school closing predictions since it’s wrong more than it’s right.
Or at least they should revamp it. I think it would be OK to do things like assign a percent chance of closure to schools in general or highlight which regions of the viewing area have an elevated risk of closure. The thing that concerned me was seeing a map of specific school districts with specific predictions. They are predicting the judgement calls of specific individuals--namely each district's superintendent--without input from said individuals. Just let them do their jobs without this Blake kid looking over their shoulders. I have no problem with them trying to predict what mother nature decides. I just don't think it is appropriate for them to second guess every superintendent's decision.
Oh, absolutely concurred. Blake Hams just shared this on his Facebook:
"I make school closing predictions by evaluating the conditions and seeing how they'll progress into the morning and beyond. Based on current road conditions, I'd probably predict what I did again. Just misjudged how things would go. I am so appreciative of your support and trust in me, and it's not something I take lightly. I learn from every prediction and this one is no different."
I mentioned this a few posts back. The young man ought to embrace a bit of humility and recognize that forecasting isn't an infallible art. His tendency to dwell on justifying his correctness rather than swiftly moving on to the next forecast comes across as rather presumptuous, if not cocky, to viewers. I harbor doubts about the sustainability of such an approach in the industry. Moreover, I question the propriety of him dabbling in predicting school closures, potentially exerting undue pressure on administrators who may find themselves at odds with a local media outlet's predicted closure. The kid exudes an air of arrogance that may not bode well for his future endeavors.
Adhere to the role of reporting school closings rather than delving into forecasting them, unless, of course, the young man is prepared to personally navigate every school district route and directly evaluate the closures. Let the administrators handle their duties, and broadcast information to assist them. The current approach taken by the young man seems quite absurd.