Make no mistake about it - the media is rooting for a recession

[bmw]

So where exactly is this recession? The stock market quickly recovered (as I predicted) and now continues its climb upwards repeatedly to new all-time highs (which I haven't seen a single mention from in the mainstream media given their obsession over impeachment).

And this story certainly flew under the radar:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jobs-rep ... 25748.html

Headline: "Jobs report: U.S. economy adds 128,000 jobs in October, smashing expectations"

[bmw]

Well, the media got what they wanted. And they're at least partially responsible for it.

I have no doubt they're ecstatic about it.

[TC Talks]

No fault of Opec or a global pandemic. Poor Trump, a victim of another conspiracy. All those people dying just to make him look bad.

[Rate This]

Well, the media got what they wanted. And they're at least partially responsible for it.

I have no doubt they're ecstatic about it.

Just the massive amount of things closing down and loss of productivity does it. The only reason the Dow is down is because markets have the news that this is happening. The coverage itself isn’t scaring them, companies drastically cutting forecasts is.

[bmw]

Except that the reason things are closing down is because of the media coverage. Any rational analytical analysis would find that the common cold and flu, every single year, cause FAR MORE loss of productivity than would the coronavirus if places weren't shutting down out of fear.

[TC Talks]

Thank you for letting us know that a former convenient store owner has greater knowledge than the director of the CDC and WHO about the communication strategy during a global pandemic.

Trump will declare a National Disaster tonight, that's a mistake?

[bmw]

1 in 7 people in Michigan caught the common flu this year. That's over a million people in Michigan. And I'm supposed to believe that the 2 sick people in the state who have Coronavirus are responsible for more productivity loss than these million people?

Give me a break.

PS - I never owned a convenience store. I worked at one. That's how I paid my way through college. I DO have a background in statistical analysis.

[TC Talks]

500 people have died in Italy this week. That is over performing the flu.

You more than most understand how the mortality rate at the beginning of a virus trend are going to be misleading. Look at mature statistics from a country more widely impacted.

When you benchmark this virus, it is 10 times more fatal than the flu and spreads four times faster. That is the concern you seem to be missing.

You better stock up on some puzzles, the next 6 weeks will be very slow.

[Rate This]

1 in 7 people in Michigan caught the common flu this year. That's over a million people in Michigan. And I'm supposed to believe that the 2 sick people in the state who have Coronavirus are responsible for more productivity loss than these million people?

Give me a break.

PS - I never owned a convenience store. I worked at one. That's how I paid my way through college. I DO have a background in statistical analysis.

It’s also brand new... you are trying to compare something old and common with something new and not fully impacted yet... if you did statistical analysis then you should know how unreasonable and inaccurate that position could potentially be. Plus with this being a global economy all of the shut downs and things in China, Italy and elsewhere are weighing on it. It’s not just here that’s the problem. It’s global.

[bmw]

I'm going to make 2 predictions. And you know my track record on predictions.

1 - By this time next year, the accepted mortality rate worldwide will be at 2.5% or less.

2 - The death toll in the United States as of 12/31/2020 as attributed to the Coronavirus will be less than 2,000 people. And I'll even give 3 to 1 odds (meaning 75% chance) that it is under 1,000 people. As such, the Coronavirus will be responsible for less than 5% of all deaths this year attributed to viruses.

[TC Talks]

That mortality rate is pretty likely but compare that to the flu at .1% and it's 25 times greater that the flu.

I bet we break 1000 by May 1.

[bmw]

Mortality rate is only half the story though. Infection rate officially remains at 1 in 300,000. Realistically it may be triple that, or 1 in 100,000. To me those are almost statistically insignificant numbers. At least SO FAR.

[Rate This]

Mortality rate is only half the story though. Infection rate officially remains at 1 in 300,000. Realistically it may be triple that, or 1 in 100,000. To me those are almost statistically insignificant numbers. At least SO FAR.

Right but you are acting like it’s a done deal now with all effects 100% known so the outcome is known and there’s nothing to see here... you cannot possibly know that...

[Lester The Nightfly]

Shut downs in China have f*cked up supply chains, and companies who chose to absorb impacts from tariffs were already seeing profits squeezed.

People working from home and choosing to limit activity in public places will really hurt retail, travel and hospitality industries. It will also cause a decline in productivity, I suspect.

On top of all the above, we now have OPEC choosing to disrupt the world's oil markets.

Add all of the above together - and we have (a) multiple sectors of the economy hurting and (b) availability of financial capital becoming tighter. Sure sounds like a recipe for negative GDP growth. What appeared to be a forthcoming mild recession pre-coronavirus now appears to be a more immediate & more impactful recession.

But...but... CNN
/s