What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong?

[Deleted User 12047]

Fascinating article about voter turnout and the "fact" that there are no undecided voters, only those that don't show up.

What if EVERYTHING you think you know about politics is wrong?

And today her model tells her the Democrats are a near lock for the presidency in 2020, and are likely to gain House seats and have a decent shot at retaking the Senate... Bitecofer’s theory, when you boil it down, is that modern American elections are rarely shaped by voters changing their minds, but rather by shifts in who decides to vote in the first place... When 2018 rolled around, she saw what was coming: “College educated white men, and especially college educated white women,” she said, “were going to be on fucking fire.” It didn’t matter who was running; it mattered who was voting. From there, the model followed. She put out her forecast for the general election when there were still candidates battling it out in primaries.

[Matt]

Yawn. I'd trust this pig's analysis on the best flavor of cheese, but not much else.

[Deleted User 12047]

Yawn. I'd trust this pig's analysis on the best flavor of cheese, but not much else.

Wow... just wow. Thanks for the insightful and thought provoking analysis. Glad I don't have to see it anymore.

[Matt]

Yawn. I'd trust this pig's analysis on the best flavor of cheese, but not much else.

Wow... just wow. Thanks for the insightful and thought provoking analysis. Glad I don't have to see it anymore.

What a passive aggressive, bitchy way to say you've blocked me...

[Rate This]

Yawn. I'd trust this pig's analysis on the best flavor of cheese, but not much else.

Wow... just wow. Thanks for the insightful and thought provoking analysis. Glad I don't have to see it anymore.

What a passive aggressive, bitchy way to say you've blocked me...

Why don’t you try to actually thoughtfully analyze something? If you gave half the effort into it here that you do defending Jim Harbaugh up the forum that would never happen...

[Matt]

I gave the column as much of a thought as it warranted, which was 0.

[Rate This]

I gave the column as much of a thought as it warranted, which was 0.

But why does it warrant no thought? It makes complete sense... the fact is that college educated folks are heavily breaking for the Democrats while poor and rural voters break for the Republicans. She also called what was gonna happen based on her modeling. So what’s the no thought from you all about?

[zzand]

I found it an interesting read but after how badly everything was miscalculated in 2016 the only numbers I will ever come close to believing will be final vote totals on election day or whenever they are released. Then and only then do we know how things went.

[bmw]

She sits out the 2016 election cycle and now has a following of 70,000 people on Twitter because she called the House elections in 2018 within 1 seat? Big deal. She also got the Senate wrong in 2018 and was "surprised" at Trump's 2016 win. That makes her 1 for 3.

I called both the Republican nomination winner (quite early on in the process, I might add) and the Trump win in the general, with much analysis provided throughout that entire election cycle (all archived here for anybody to go back and read), and I correctly called 48 out of 50 states (I challenge anybody here to go out and find ANYBODY - professional or otherwise - who called 48 out of 50 states correctly). I also called the Senate in 2018, I believe to the EXACT number of seats (or I may have been off by 1, I can't recall). I was admittedly wrong about the House, though I did see that moving left in the final days leading up to the election. Overall I went 2 for 3. Where's my 70,000 followers?

My analysis and predictions are very different than the way she makes them. I don't base mine on any kind of forecast models. I base mine on taking in information from a lot of different sources and applying some common sense.

btw - that article was WAY too long for me to read the entire thing. The gist of it seems to be that the winner is based on turnout as opposed to swing voters. That is generally correct.

[Matt]

She sits out the 2016 election cycle and now has a following of 70,000 people on Twitter because she called the House elections in 2018 within 1 seat? Big deal. She also got the Senate wrong in 2018 and was "surprised" at Trump's 2016 win. That makes her 1 for 3.

I called both the Republican nomination winner (quite early on in the process, I might add) and the Trump win in the general, with much analysis provided throughout that entire election cycle (all archived here for anybody to go back and read), and I correctly called 48 out of 50 states (I challenge anybody here to go out and find ANYBODY - professional or otherwise - who called 48 out of 50 states correctly). I also called the Senate in 2018, I believe to the EXACT number of seats (or I may have been off by 1, I can't recall). I was admittedly wrong about the House, though I did see that moving left in the final days leading up to the election. Overall I went 2 for 3. Where's my 70,000 followers?

My analysis and predictions are very different than the way she makes them. I don't base mine on any kind of forecast models. I base mine on taking in information from a lot of different sources and applying some common sense.

btw - that article was WAY too long for me to read the entire thing. The gist of it seems to be that the winner is based on turnout as opposed to swing voters. That is generally correct.

This.

Turnout is key, and enthusiasm is very important. By all accounts, Trump's base is very enthusiastic, and the economy is good. Are people in the middle REALLY going to vote against their pocketbooks because Trump is a douchebag?

My initial response was much more efficient, and while rude, it was accurate. She was shocked that Trump won last time, and while I'll admit, I was late to the game on that one, I was pretty confident when Obama came to Ann Arbor THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION, that Trump was likely to win.

[Bryce]

I gave the column as much of a thought as it warranted, which was 0.

But why does it warrant no thought? It makes complete sense... the fact is that college educated folks are heavily breaking for the Democrats while poor and rural voters break for the Republicans. She also called what was gonna happen based on her modeling. So what’s the no thought from you all about?

I always thought the Democratic Party was the party of the poor and working class.

I guess they're now the party of the college indoctrinated.

There are undecided voters. I was one in 2016. I'm pleased I made the right choice.

[Rate This]

I gave the column as much of a thought as it warranted, which was 0.

But why does it warrant no thought? It makes complete sense... the fact is that college educated folks are heavily breaking for the Democrats while poor and rural voters break for the Republicans. She also called what was gonna happen based on her modeling. So what’s the no thought from you all about?

I always thought the Democratic Party was the party of the poor and working class.

I guess they're now the party of the college indoctrinated.

There are undecided voters. I was one in 2016. I'm pleased I made the right choice.

We are in the midst of a realignment.

[Deleted User 12047]

There are undecided voters. I was one in 2016. I'm pleased I made the right choice.

You were undecided! Fascinating, can you please recap when and how you made your decision? What factors did you consider? Did you vote a straight party ticket? (Notice, I'm not asking who you voted for, as you have the right to keep that private.)

[Matt]

There are undecided voters. I was one in 2016. I'm pleased I made the right choice.

You were undecided! Fascinating, can you please recap when and how you made your decision? What factors did you consider? Did you vote a straight party ticket? (Notice, I'm not asking who you voted for, as you have the right to keep that private.)

I too was undecided between Gary Johnson and President Trump until just before I arrived at my polling place. Of course you made a big production about blocking me, so you can't see this so I guess it doesn't make sense for me to expand on my thinking.

[audiophile]

I didn't vote for Trump either time (presidential primary, presidential)

Trump is doing better than I expected, but my expectations were 0.0