Some registered account users are experiencing password recognition issues. The issue appears to have been triggered by a PHP update last night. If this is occurring, please try logging in and using the "forgot password?" utility. Bear in mind auto-generated password reset emails may appear in your spam folder. If this does not work, please click the "Contact Us" option near the lower right hand corner of the index page to contact me via email.
Thank you for your patience!
- M.W.
Thank you for your patience!
- M.W.
Final electoral map predictions
Final electoral map predictions
Post 'em here. I'm listing all states declared as swing states by Real Clear Politics. Here are my predictions (including margins of victory in each state) :
Trump:
5.1% Georgia (16)
3.6% Arizona (11)
3.2% Iowa (6)
1.8% Ohio (18)
0.6% Florida (29)
0.5% New Hampshire (4)
0.2% Maine CD2 (1)
0.2% North Carolina (15)
0.1% Nevada (6)
Clinton:
6.1% New Mexico (5)
5.3% Maine (2)
4.7% Michigan (16)
4.6% Colorado (9)
2.2% Pennsylvania (20)
Trump wins, 270-268
EDIT - I'm changing my predictions (election day morning) as follows:
Nevada to Hillary (0.5%)
New Hampshire to Hillary (0.5%)
Michigan to Trump (1.1%)
Trump wins, 276-262
Trump:
5.1% Georgia (16)
3.6% Arizona (11)
3.2% Iowa (6)
1.8% Ohio (18)
0.6% Florida (29)
0.5% New Hampshire (4)
0.2% Maine CD2 (1)
0.2% North Carolina (15)
0.1% Nevada (6)
Clinton:
6.1% New Mexico (5)
5.3% Maine (2)
4.7% Michigan (16)
4.6% Colorado (9)
2.2% Pennsylvania (20)
Trump wins, 270-268
EDIT - I'm changing my predictions (election day morning) as follows:
Nevada to Hillary (0.5%)
New Hampshire to Hillary (0.5%)
Michigan to Trump (1.1%)
Trump wins, 276-262
Last edited by bmw on Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'll make my final on Tuesday... over 300 for Clinton... trump in the low 200's...
-
- Posts: 661
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:31 pm
- Location: Where the sun no longer shines
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I think there will be few changes from the 2012 electoral map. I don't think any blue states will switch. How anyone thinks that NH or Maine will go red is beyond me. I am definitely not a biased Hillary fan. However, I dont think shes beatable. Trump is too weak a candidate to take her down in loyally blue states.
Georgia- Trump: 52%
Arizona-Trump: 51%
Iowa- Clinton:52%
Florida- Clinton: 51%
New Hampshire- Clinton: 54-56%
Maine- Clinton: 55%
North Carolina- Clinton: 51%
Nevada- Clinton: 52%
Colorado- Clinton:54%
Michigan-Clinton: 55%
Ohio-Trump:51%
Georgia- Trump: 52%
Arizona-Trump: 51%
Iowa- Clinton:52%
Florida- Clinton: 51%
New Hampshire- Clinton: 54-56%
Maine- Clinton: 55%
North Carolina- Clinton: 51%
Nevada- Clinton: 52%
Colorado- Clinton:54%
Michigan-Clinton: 55%
Ohio-Trump:51%
Re: Final electoral map predictions
To be clear, that is only a single Congressional District (CD2) for a single electoral vote as Maine is not winner-take-all.Y M Ionhere wrote:How anyone thinks that NH or Maine will go red is beyond me.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
Florida, New Hampshire and Maine CD-2 you are probably wrong on. Nevada as well. He's toast.bmw wrote:Post 'em here. I'm listing all states declared as swing states by Real Clear Politics. Here are my predictions (including margins of victory in each state) :
Trump:
5.1% Georgia (16)
3.6% Arizona (11)
3.2% Iowa (6)
1.8% Ohio (18)
0.6% Florida (29)
0.5% New Hampshire (4)
0.2% Maine CD2 (1)
0.2% North Carolina (15)
0.1% Nevada (6)
Clinton:
6.1% New Mexico (5)
5.3% Maine (2)
4.7% Michigan (16)
4.6% Colorado (9)
2.2% Pennsylvania (20)
Trump wins, 270-268
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I think Trump can and may possibly win, but if I had to bet, I'm going with the numbers, even with my serious concerns about the accuracy of polling. If Trump wins all the states that I have predicted him to win and somehow peels away Nevada and New Hampshire, we're at 269-269.
As a bonus prediction, the Republicans hold the Senate and only have a net loss of two seats. They will win Nevada and lose Illinois and Pennsylvania. The final loss will be 1 of Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Missouri.
Edit: Don't count out Colorado as a pickup chance for Republicans in the Senate...
This is a pro-Harris/Walz account
"I have to admit - Matt is right." ~bmw
"I have to admit - Matt is right." ~bmw
Re: Final electoral map predictions
323-215 Clinton... Ohio and Iowa to Trump offset by North Carolina, Florida and Nevada for Clinton... the blue wall holds.
- audiophile
- Posts: 9236
- Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:21 pm
- Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
These are union households too.
Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.NS8401 wrote:I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
This is a pro-Harris/Walz account
"I have to admit - Matt is right." ~bmw
"I have to admit - Matt is right." ~bmw
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'm going with CNN.Matt wrote:Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.NS8401 wrote:I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.NS8401 wrote:I'm going with CNN.Matt wrote:Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.NS8401 wrote:I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
This is a pro-Harris/Walz account
"I have to admit - Matt is right." ~bmw
"I have to admit - Matt is right." ~bmw
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.NS8401 wrote:I'm going with CNN.Matt wrote:Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.NS8401 wrote:I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
This is a pro-Harris/Walz account
"I have to admit - Matt is right." ~bmw
"I have to admit - Matt is right." ~bmw
Re: Final electoral map predictions
Am I the only person that thinks Bret Baier looks like an action figure come to life?Matt wrote:
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
IF she wins, it'll be a squeaker. If he wins, it'll be quite large.