2020 Presidential Polls

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September 5

Harvard-Harris
General Election:
Biden 53 Trump 47 LV

If that poll is close to accurate, Trump wins.

How do you figure? It’s nearly impossible for him to win with a 6 point popular vote deficit. He barely did last time with a third of that deficit.

[Bryce]

September 5

Harvard-Harris
General Election:
Biden 53 Trump 47 LV

If that poll is close to accurate, Trump wins.

How do you figure? It’s nearly impossible for him to win with a 6 point popular vote deficit. He barely did last time with a third of that deficit.

From the same time frame in 2016...

(CNN)Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump and has reached 50% support nationally among likely voters, a new ABC News tracking poll shows.

The poll shows Clinton with 50% support to Trump's 38%, with 5% backing Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% supporting the Green Party's Jill Stein.

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September 5

Harvard-Harris
General Election:
Biden 53 Trump 47 LV

If that poll is close to accurate, Trump wins.

How do you figure? It’s nearly impossible for him to win with a 6 point popular vote deficit. He barely did last time with a third of that deficit.

From the same time frame in 2016...

(CNN)Hillary Clinton has a 12-point lead over Donald Trump and has reached 50% support nationally among likely voters, a new ABC News tracking poll shows.

The poll shows Clinton with 50% support to Trump's 38%, with 5% backing Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% supporting the Green Party's Jill Stein.

Except that the lines have hardened and the third party vote is non existent... this isn’t 2016. This election is proceeding very differently than that one and Biden is no Hillary.

[Bryce]

Except that the lines have hardened and the third party vote is non existent... this isn’t 2016. This election is proceeding very differently than that one and Biden is no Hillary.

You're right, Biden is no Hillary. He's crooked AND senile.

[Bryce]

Here's one for ya...

Rasmussen Reports Trump and Biden Tied in PA, Trump Polling at 27% Among Black Voters

he latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in the Keystone State finds Trump and Biden with 46% support each. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among the 82% of voters who say they are certain now how they will vote in the presidential election, Trump holds a slight 51% to 49% advantage.

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Except that the lines have hardened and the third party vote is non existent... this isn’t 2016. This election is proceeding very differently than that one and Biden is no Hillary.

You're right, Biden is no Hillary. He's crooked AND senile.

That would be Trump. Nice try though.

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Here's one for ya...

Rasmussen Reports Trump and Biden Tied in PA, Trump Polling at 27% Among Black Voters

That 27% number is highly doubtful. Somebody’s making up numbers at this point. Rasmussen also has a known bias towards Republicans. Take those with a grain of salt until they get corroborated several times.

[Bryce]

Here's one for ya...

Rasmussen Reports Trump and Biden Tied in PA, Trump Polling at 27% Among Black Voters

That 27% number is highly doubtful. Somebody’s making up numbers at this point. Rasmussen also has a known bias towards Republicans. Take those with a grain of salt until they get corroborated several times.

And the other polls over survey Democrats...

Just like they did in 2016

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Here's one for ya...

Rasmussen Reports Trump and Biden Tied in PA, Trump Polling at 27% Among Black Voters

That 27% number is highly doubtful. Somebody’s making up numbers at this point. Rasmussen also has a known bias towards Republicans. Take those with a grain of salt until they get corroborated several times.

And the other polls over survey Democrats...

Just like they did in 2016

The models have been corrected. Pollsters learn from their mistakes.

The other thing is that Democrats are much more unified and energized than in 2016. The dynamics are just different. Running the same campaign as 2016 with a 4 year record is stupid on Trumps part.

[audiophile]

Here's one for ya...

Rasmussen Reports Trump and Biden Tied in PA, Trump Polling at 27% Among Black Voters

That 27% number is highly doubtful. Somebody’s making up numbers at this point. Rasmussen also has a known bias towards Republicans. Take those with a grain of salt until they get corroborated several times.

And the other polls over survey Democrats...

Just like they did in 2016

I don't know one conservative that would take a phone poll.

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September 6

CBS News / YouGov
General Election:
Biden 52 Trump 42 LV

Wisconsin:
Biden 50 Trump 44 LV

University of Texas At Tyler
Texas:
Biden 44 Trump 43 RV
Trump 48 Biden 46 LV

Morning Consult
Wisconsin:
Biden 52 Trump 42 LV Ended 9/3
Biden 50 Trump 44 LV Ended 9/5

USC Dornslife Tracking Poll
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 42 LV

Research And Polling / Albuquerque Journal
New Mexico:
Biden 54 Trump 39 LV

[Matt]

Here's one for ya...

Rasmussen Reports Trump and Biden Tied in PA, Trump Polling at 27% Among Black Voters

That 27% number is highly doubtful. Somebody’s making up numbers at this point. Rasmussen also has a known bias towards Republicans. Take those with a grain of salt until they get corroborated several times.

And the other polls over survey Democrats...

Just like they did in 2016

The models have been corrected. Pollsters learn from their mistakes.

The other thing is that Democrats are much more unified and energized than in 2016. The dynamics are just different. Running the same campaign as 2016 with a 4 year record is stupid on Trumps part.

Keep listening to the nerds at e-v...

[Deleted User 14896]

I don't know one conservative that would take a phone poll.

I'm thinking they won't be polling me. If the number isn't in my contact list, I ain't answering.

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I don't know one conservative that would take a phone poll.

I'm thinking they won't be polling me. If the number isn't in my contact list, I ain't answering.

The thing is that they just keep asking people until they get the sample and then they weight it using their model of the electorate. So it doesn’t matter if some people don’t answer. They just find someone who will.

[audiophile]

I don't know one conservative that would take a phone poll.

I'm thinking they won't be polling me. If the number isn't in my contact list, I ain't answering.

The thing is that they just keep asking people until they get the sample and then they weight it using their model of the electorate. So it doesn’t matter if some people don’t answer. They just find someone who will.

That gives a bias to the polls.