I'm ready to predict the outcome of the 2020 election.

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Keep clinging to your polls, RT.

And so I will. Being within the margin of error on 49 out of 50 is pretty good...

If simply being within the margin of error on 49/50 is pretty good, then how would you classify being CORRECT on 48/50? That was my record in 2016. Can you point to any other source or prediction-maker that correctly called 48 out of 50 states or better?

Considering what you are predicting now (without a shred of evidence) I’d say it’s better to be lucky than good.

At this point Trump is down by more than 5 in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and down between 1 and 5 in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. Arizona looks like a tie. He’s up 1-5 points in Arkansas, Alaska, Iowa and Utah. To say his electoral map is weak is the understatement of the year. To say the polls are wrong in 8 states and that none of them will flip seems like wishful thinking. Even in 2016 Wisconsin was the only one outside the margin of error to go the other way or in other words the polls missed it. 4 states were within the margins and went the other way from the average. So you are telling me the polls will do worse this time? That seems dubious. I think your support for the man is clouding your judgement.

Further you are telling me a man with terrible approval numbers that barely beat a terribly unpopular candidate and lost the popular vote in the process is going to do exactly the same thing he did 4 years ago against a more likable and popular candidate than his previous opponent? You’re slipping dude.

[ftballfan]

There are three 269-269 outcomes that I feel are possible.
Scenario #1 has Biden flipping AZ, MI, and WI with Trump holding on to FL, GA, NC, NE-2, OH, PA, and TX.
Scenario #2 has Biden flipping AZ, FL, and NE-2 and Trump flipping NH while holding on to GA, MI, NC, OH, PA, TX, and WI
Scenario #3 has Biden flipping MI, NE-2, and PA with Trump holding on to AZ, FL, GA, NC, OH, PA, TX, and WI

[audiophile]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

Excellent point about the VP selection. McCain was running pretty good until Palin came onboard. It can cut both ways. We're some health issue from either principal candidate that makes the VP slot a legit factor.

Pence is a good VP and would make a great president.

[Honeyman]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

Excellent point about the VP selection. McCain was running pretty good until Palin came onboard. It can cut both ways. We're some health issue from either principal candidate that makes the VP slot a legit factor.

Pence is a good VP and would make a great president.

Pence is a stooge and would send us back into the dark ages if he got into the oval office.

[audiophile]

If this is the light ages, send me back.

[Honeyman]

If this is the light ages, send me back.

On that we can agree.

[Rate This]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

Excellent point about the VP selection. McCain was running pretty good until Palin came onboard. It can cut both ways. We're some health issue from either principal candidate that makes the VP slot a legit factor.

Pence is a good VP and would make a great president.

He’s a pretty weak politician with limited appeal on a broad scale. He will not be president in this or any other lifetime.

[Matt]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

Excellent point about the VP selection. McCain was running pretty good until Palin came onboard. It can cut both ways. We're some health issue from either principal candidate that makes the VP slot a legit factor.

Pence is a good VP and would make a great president.

He’s a pretty weak politician with limited appeal on a broad scale. He will not be president in this or any other lifetime.

Says the guy that guaranteed Crooked Hillary would be president...

[Rate This]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

Excellent point about the VP selection. McCain was running pretty good until Palin came onboard. It can cut both ways. We're some health issue from either principal candidate that makes the VP slot a legit factor.

Pence is a good VP and would make a great president.

He’s a pretty weak politician with limited appeal on a broad scale. He will not be president in this or any other lifetime.

Says the guy that guaranteed Crooked Hillary would be president...

Sometimes a squirrel finds a nut. That was a fluke.

[bmw]

There are three 269-269 outcomes that I feel are possible.
Scenario #1 has Biden flipping AZ, MI, and WI with Trump holding on to FL, GA, NC, NE-2, OH, PA, and TX.
Scenario #2 has Biden flipping AZ, FL, and NE-2 and Trump flipping NH while holding on to GA, MI, NC, OH, PA, TX, and WI
Scenario #3 has Biden flipping MI, NE-2, and PA with Trump holding on to AZ, FL, GA, NC, OH, PA, TX, and WI

Given the number of faithless electors in 2016, anything +/- 5 electoral votes form 269 could cause the same result as a tie.

[bmw]

Considering what you are predicting now (without a shred of evidence) I’d say it’s better to be lucky than good.

So you think that in 2016 that I got "lucky" as opposed to simply being "right"? I gave a ton of analysis in here in 2016 leading up to the election and most of it ended up being spot-on.

My analysis here is pretty simple. The far left in this country still constitutes a minority, yet, this is the group that will operate a puppet regime if Biden were to win. Trump has already been pushing this message, and I think it is an effective one.

The police? There's a million of them nation-wide, and I can guarantee you that they and their families will heavily favor Trump.

The economy? Doing better now than I could have ever predicted.

A vaccine? May well be here before the election, or at least, well on the road to one.

I think the Democrats are on the verge of having pushed too far on a lot of what they're doing....and that push "too far" may well end up perfectly aligning with the election - especially considering what I know we have coming ahead when school starts back up this fall.

You’re slipping dude.

Saving this one for posterity. Unfortunately since you deleted your 2016 user ID, your very similar comments then are lost.

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Considering what you are predicting now (without a shred of evidence) I’d say it’s better to be lucky than good.

So you think that in 2016 that I got "lucky" as opposed to simply being "right"? I gave a ton of analysis in here in 2016 leading up to the election and most of it ended up being spot-on.

My analysis here is pretty simple. The far left in this country still constitutes a minority, yet, this is the group that will operate a puppet regime if Biden were to win. Trump has already been pushing this message, and I think it is an effective one.

The police? There's a million of them nation-wide, and I can guarantee you that they and their families will heavily favor Trump.

The economy? Doing better now than I could have ever predicted.

A vaccine? May well be here before the election, or at least, well on the road to one.

I think the Democrats are on the verge of having pushed too far on a lot of what they're doing....and that push "too far" may well end up perfectly aligning with the election - especially considering what I know we have coming ahead when school starts back up this fall.

You’re slipping dude.

Saving this one for posterity. Unfortunately since you deleted your 2016 user ID, your very similar comments then are lost.

You sound like conservatives before the 2018 elections.... they made the same arguments and got crushed where they did.

There are too many people who voted for Trump the first time and won’t again out there to have everything line up for him like it did in 16. Your judgement is clearly clouded here. He’s a major underdog. Every objective rating site has been moving states to Biden’s side in the last few weeks. His base isn’t enough to win and even that is now showing signs of stress.

[Deleted User 12047]

I think that the stock market and economy will be in full-blown recovery mode right around election time for one reason - a VACCINE. And that I think favors Trump big-time.

Now I have to doubt your reasoning. Of the over 100 vaccines under development, only 1 has gone to phase 3 trials (AstraZeneca, with Moderna scheduled to start at the end of the month). AstraZeneca says they may have doses available on an “emergency basis” by October. For the vaccine to drive the economy into full blown recovery mode, it would have to be available sooner than that, I would think.

Rebuttal?

[Rate This]

I think that the stock market and economy will be in full-blown recovery mode right around election time for one reason - a VACCINE. And that I think favors Trump big-time.

Now I have to doubt your reasoning. Of the over 100 vaccines under development, only 1 has gone to phase 3 trials (AstraZeneca, with Moderna scheduled to start at the end of the month). AstraZeneca says they may have doses available on an “emergency basis” by October. For the vaccine to drive the economy into full blown recovery mode, it would have to be available sooner than that, I would think.

Rebuttal?

For a full blown recovery it would need to be fully and widely available and not on an emergency basis. That simply will not happen no matter how hard Trump uses his imagination and just believes.

[Lester The Nightfly]

I think that the stock market and economy will be in full-blown recovery mode right around election time for one reason - a VACCINE. And that I think favors Trump big-time.

Now I have to doubt your reasoning. Of the over 100 vaccines under development, only 1 has gone to phase 3 trials (AstraZeneca, with Moderna scheduled to start at the end of the month). AstraZeneca says they may have doses available on an “emergency basis” by October. For the vaccine to drive the economy into full blown recovery mode, it would have to be available sooner than that, I would think.

Rebuttal?

For a full blown recovery it would need to be fully and widely available and not on an emergency basis. That simply will not happen no matter how hard Trump uses his imagination and just believes.

"fully and widely available" is only half the equation. Significant inoculation will still need to be accomplished. As much pissing and moaning we're seeing about wearing a piece of cloth over one's face, the crying about taking a needle stick should be deafening.