2026 Midterms Predictions thread

[bmw]

I think we're far enough along to start making some early predictions. Here are mine as of now:

Senate comes down to 6 seats:
Texas
Ohio
Maine
Iowa
Alaska
Michigan

I think New Hampshire and Georgia go Dem and the 6 seats above split 50-50, putting the Senate at a 50-50 tie (so tiebreaker to Vance)

I will predict that Texas does NOT go to Talarico, Dems take 3 of the other 5.

House goes Dem by a 5 to 15 seat margin

As to Michigan-specific predictions, governor PROBABLY goes Dem, but I don't think that's set in stone.

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I think we're far enough along to start making some early predictions. Here are mine as of now:

Senate comes down to 6 seats:
Texas
Ohio
Maine
Iowa
Alaska
Michigan

I think New Hampshire and Georgia go Dem and the 6 seats above split 50-50, putting the Senate at a 50-50 tie (so tiebreaker to Vance)

I will predict that Texas does NOT go to Talarico, Dems take 3 of the other 5.

House goes Dem by a 5 to 15 seat margin

As to Michigan-specific predictions, governor PROBABLY goes Dem, but I don't think that's set in stone.

If the Iran war continues unabated and is going strong then… you will want to revise this. The GOP is in a rather tenuous position.

[Chrocket87]

I think we're far enough along to start making some early predictions. Here are mine as of now:

Senate comes down to 6 seats:
Texas
Ohio
Maine
Iowa
Alaska
Michigan

I think New Hampshire and Georgia go Dem and the 6 seats above split 50-50, putting the Senate at a 50-50 tie (so tiebreaker to Vance)

I will predict that Texas does NOT go to Talarico, Dems take 3 of the other 5.

House goes Dem by a 5 to 15 seat margin

As to Michigan-specific predictions, governor PROBABLY goes Dem, but I don't think that's set in stone.

I agree that Talarico doesn’t win Texas. At this point, I think Collins holds Maine.

Georgia and Michigan will hold their Dem Senate seats.

I actually wouldnt be surprised if Ohio splits between governor and senate. Dr. Acton is such a meh choice that I can’t see too many non-political folks getting excited about her (Ohio resident here).

I’m not familiar enough with AK or IA to venture a guess there.

[MegaHertz]

I heard a great interview with the IA candidate today. Sounds like what they need, so they won't vote for him.

House definitely goes blue, I'll raise on the margin. 10 to 15 seats.

Republicans hold the Senate, at least 51-49, Fetterman probably makes it 52-48

I'm more curious as to how Trump and MAGA handle results.

ETA: I have a bad feeling Rogers eeks it out. So maybe 53. But we shall see.

[Honeyman]

I agree Talarico won't win. It's Texas. They'll elect a dirty crook bastard before a Dem.

I think the Dems will win Maine if this Jackson guy isnt too much of a loose cannon. Iowa will also go Democrat.

Mega's point about Fetterman is a good one. He will switch to the dark side to add to the GOP total.

[Bull Shannon]

ETA: I have a bad feeling Rogers eeks it out. So maybe 53. But we shall see.

I think the Dems will win Maine if this Jackson guy isnt too much of a loose cannon.

Mega's point about Fetterman is a good one. He will switch to the dark side to add to the GOP total.

As much as I dislike Haley Stevens, I think her statewide odds are better than Abdul's at beating Rogers, BUT, if Abdul wins the primary (and I hope he does), I think it will still be a VERY close race, either way.

And as far as Maine goes: at least Collins is one of the few non-MAGA Republicans in the Senate and has voted against Trump's agenda multiple times. At the absolute very least, if she gets re-elected, her votes will probably cancel out Fetterman's more often than not.

[Chrocket87]

Post-primary, I’m gonna change my prediction. I think Rogers flips MI. I think Al-Sayed is gonna have a hard time winning the general. Though not Senate related, I think WI governor goes red as well.

I could be proven wrong, but I think DSA/DSA-adjacent candidates are gonna have a hard time in purple states.

Ultimately, I predict the Dems will fall short of taking the Senate.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I like Iowa to flip with Turek due to enraged farmers, Jackson flips Maine barely, Nebraska and Ohio stay red, Cooper flips NC blue, Talarico flips Texas based on the Rio Grande Valley turning back to blue, Abdul holds Michigan blue by .02%. Republicans demand recount and refuse to seat Abdul initially. Fetterman defects officially in January.

The true shockers: Alaska flips blue as Peltala brings new voters to vote. South Carolina nearly flips as Darline Graham is not as popular as Lindsey. Hong wins by 4 as Wisconsin democratic socialists mobilize as Madison and Milwaukee break turnout records.While Ossoff winning is not a surprise, Keisha Lance Bottoms flips the Georgia governorship by winning by 1%.

Not sure where that puts the math.

Congress flips 14 seats.

[MegaHertz]

I think Talarico loses by less than a point.

Rogers takes Michigan. Our statewide IQ isn't really the highest.

I think Iowa stays red, but I think a couple of blue surprises happen.

Oh...and James becomes governor. Remember where you heard that.

[Matt]

El-Sayed is quick on his feet - maybe he shouldn't be underestimated: