Major snowstorm brewing

[MWmetalhead]

Thundersnow is showing up on radar by Clare right now.

Temps have slipped to 32 at my house over the past hour. Freezing rain here.

[TC Talks]

At noon we started something not quite freezing ice but sleet trying to be snow.

[MWmetalhead]

Most areas in Metro Detroit will likely fall a few degrees short of NWS predicted daytime highs. Still 32 or 33 in many places. The warm front has made almost zero progress advancing northeastward today.

[TC Talks]

I think the NWS forecast for our area was quite accurate.

[Mega Hertz]

Keep an eye on Friday.......

[blizzard]

Keep an eye on Friday.......

https://youtu.be/wHlUNwjpMt0

[MWmetalhead]

My initial thinking for Friday is medium confidence of at least 3 to 6 inches of snow for a good swath of SE Michigan. Areas near the Ohio border are likely to see lower snow totals as a result of a wintry mix.

[km1125]

My initial thinking for Friday is medium confidence of at least 3 to 6 inches of snow for a good swath of SE Michigan. Areas near the Ohio border are likely to see lower snow totals as a result of a wintry mix.

Good! I still have a little two-stroke gas I need to use up before the season is over!

[MWmetalhead]

The model placement of the low pressure system's track has diverged in the latest runs. The Euro model is showing a much more westerly track and shifts the heaviest snow a good 100 miles to the northwest of the others.

I think a 3 to 6 inch snow is still a medium possibility for a swath of SE Michigan, with higher chances the closer one gets to Lansing.

The system has potential to dump 6 to 9 inches of snow for a small portion of the state. Confidence in that is low at this point.

I would expect a winter storm watch or winter weather advisory to be issued for a good section of southern and central Michigan by this time tomorrow. Onset of precip would happen Friday morning. Would not surprise me if Wayne, Monroe and Lenawee counties are excluded. The wind threat will be bigger than the snow threat in some areas. If the models congeal around a solution where multi inch snows are confined to the I-69 corridor and northwestward, the entire tri-county Detroit area may escape any sort of winter weather watches or advisories.

In terms of icing potential, the potential is there, but any inversion layer should be pretty geographically narrow in scope. In other words, any areas with surface temps at or below 32 will also have mid layer atmospheric temps below freezing, for the most part, supporting snow over ice. Thus, I would not expect freezing rain to set up over any one area for too long at this point.

[MWmetalhead]

Thursday morning update:
Models are wrapping more cold air into the near northern flank of the low pressure system due to hit our area Friday, which increases confidence of 3 to 6 inch snow totals for northern Metro Detroit and for the I-69 corridor. I would say high confidence now exists for totals of no less than that range in much of those areas, especially along and north of the glacial ridge.

Confidence is also increasing for some scattered pockets of 6 to 8 inch totals in this region, but placement of those pockets is difficult to predict.

Ann Arbor to Detroit is likely to see a sloppy 2 to 4 inches. If the storm track is a bit farther south or east, totals could rise here. Some rain or sleet is likely to mix in, especially south of I-94 and east of 275.

For southern Lenawee and Monroe, a rain / snow mix is likely, and I'd say snow totals are most likely to be 2 inches or less, but again, this could easily change if more cold air wraps into the area.

For the middle of the mitt and for the Saginaw Valley, I think 4 to 8 inch totals will be common, with the lower numbers likely to occur north of M-20.

In SE Michigan and perhaps even farther NW, I think a few spots will likely see "thundersnow" tomorrow or tomorrow night.

[MWmetalhead]

FWIW, the Weather Channel is forecasting 8 to 12 inches for my locale near 14 Mile and Woodward. Suffice it to say, a great deal of variation still exists in terms of how high snow totals could go.

AccuWeather.com is calling for 3 to 6 inches, a prediction with which I presently agree.

[MWmetalhead]

I'm boosting my totals for Metro Detroit and lowering my totals for central Michigan.

I think widespread 5 to 8 inch totals now appear likely for most of Metro Detroit as well as the I-69 corridor. Back toward Alma, Midland and Bay City, totals will probably be mostly in the 3 to 6 inch range. In Lenawee, Monroe and southeastern Wayne, totals might be in the 2 to 5 range.

High temps across much of Metro Detroit fell a few degrees short of forecast today. I suspect the rain-snow line will probably not make it north of an Adrian to Grosse Ile line at any point during the precip event. The fact at least half the precip during this event in Metro Detroit is now likely fall near or after sunset also works in favor of snow accumulation.

Thundersnow on a widely scattered basis looks very possible.

[TC Talks]

We have a nice few days ahead...

[MWmetalhead]

You're very lucky!

I'm keeping my forecast unchanged from last evening.

[km1125]

Anybody see any rain yet??