I'm ready to predict the outcome of the 2020 election.

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bmw, how about a bet? I'll say Biden wins. $100 to be donated by the loser to the (non-political) charity of the winners choice. We're on our own honor as far as payment. Cool?

I don't do friendly Trump money bets any more. That last one I did remains unpaid - I wagered a distant family member $100 that Trump would still be President to start out the year 2020 (he insisted Trump would be impeached or would resign by then). Needless to say this person not only no longer is friends with me on facebook but also has me completely blocked.

He WAS impeached. You may owe him money.

Sorry...I meant REMOVED FROM OFFICE as a result of impeachment. The exact bet was "I will bet you $100 Trump will no longer be in office by 2020"

Even I wouldn’t have made that bet...

[Matt]

277 Trump
261 Biden

If it was anyone else I might question it and tell them were nuts (This is a compliment!)

For instance an AA poster's predictions were notoriously bad.

Weird that you wouldn't spefically name me. I've had better years than others, mostly when Republicans win. I used to make "predictions" based on what I wanted to happen, rather than what I honestly thought, you know, likr RT is doing this year...

[audiophile]

I did first but I later edited it out.

It did seem it was more like your election preference though it was written like a prediction.

[Rate This]

277 Trump
261 Biden

If it was anyone else I might question it and tell them were nuts (This is a compliment!)

For instance an AA poster's predictions were notoriously bad.

Weird that you wouldn't spefically name me. I've had better years than others, mostly when Republicans win. I used to make "predictions" based on what I wanted to happen, rather than what I honestly thought, you know, likr RT is doing this year...

I’m just sticking with the tea leaves.

[Matt]

Like you did in 2016? How'd that work out?

[Deleted User 12047]

277 Trump
261 Biden

Interesting prediction. Can you lay out your state by state analysis?

How will that affect the Senate? (I'm assuming, and it's a big assumption, that R's are too far behind to take the House - and this result is CERTAINLY not going to have big coattails )

[Honeyman]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

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Like you did in 2016? How'd that work out?

Wisconsin was the only state the polls actually “missed”. All others were within the margin of error. It was a fluke. 2020 is not so fluky looking and Biden is running ahead of Clinton at this time in 2016.

[Lester The Nightfly]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

Excellent point about the VP selection. McCain was running pretty good until Palin came onboard. It can cut both ways. We're some health issue from either principal candidate that makes the VP slot a legit factor.

[Matt]

The campaign hasn't really started. The recent baseline for an incumbent is the map from his first win.

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The campaign hasn't really started. The recent baseline for an incumbent is the map from his first win.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania look like lost causes. He’s toast no matter what if that’s true. His map is nearly impossible.

[Matt]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

Excellent point about the VP selection. McCain was running pretty good until Palin came onboard. It can cut both ways. We're some health issue from either principal candidate that makes the VP slot a legit factor.

Serious question: who would be an objectively bad VP pick from your POV?

[Honeyman]

I think is absurd to try and predict a national election 3 1/2 months before it takes place. Biden hasn't even named his running mate. And I would venture to say things are a little more volatile this election year than in the past.

Excellent point about the VP selection. McCain was running pretty good until Palin came onboard. It can cut both ways. We're some health issue from either principal candidate that makes the VP slot a legit factor.

Serious question: who would be an objectively bad VP pick from your POV?

You didn't ask me, but I'll chime in anyway.

I think Kamala Harris would be awful. I have hated her for years as a Californian watching her move up the ladder. Shes a phony.

Elizabeth Warren would be another terrible choice. Waaaay to left.

Biden needs to pick someone who can be tolerated by right leaning independents. Tammy Duckworth or Susan Rice would be my choices.

[Matt]

To your credit, I almost said "other than Kamala". I think you picked the wrong Rice for VP. If Biden did something ballsy and picked Condi, he'd win in Reagan fashion.

[Matt]

I'll throw an out of the box suggestion that will NEVER happen: Justin Amash.