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Democrat Primary predictions

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bmw
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Democrat Primary predictions

Post by bmw » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:06 pm

The talking point among conservatives the past few days has been that Biden is done and that the only question is when will he drop out.

I completely disagree. He still leads in South Carolina, and their primary comes several days BEFORE Super Tuesday. I think Biden will find new life after winning South Carolina, and after Super Tuesday, there will be no clear front-runner.

Of the 6 candidates who are arguably still viable (Bernie, Biden, Warren, Bloomberg, Klobuchar, and Buttigieg), the only one I see possibly dropping out after March 3rd is Warren, and even that is less than 50/50. Klobuchar and Buttigieg really have no chance of winning in the end, but their better-than-expected showing in Iowa and New Hampshire might give them enough of a boost to do reasonably well on Super Tuesday. I would put the drop-out odds immediately following Super Tuesday as follows:

Bernie - 1% (and that is only for possible health issues)
Biden - 5%
Bloomberg - 5%
Buttigieg - 10%
Klobuchar - 20%
Warren - 30%

My preliminary prediction is that this ends up going to a brokered convention. If that happens, the Super Delegates get to vote in the second round, and I think they will break heavily for Biden. Despite the vast majority of people thinking Biden is done and has been done for some time (including some regulars in this forum), I still predict that he is the nominee when the dust settles.



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audiophile
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by audiophile » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:15 pm

The sage has spoken!


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

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Honeyman
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by Honeyman » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:22 pm

I disagree....not that it will be a brokered convention, but on you nominee. Michael Bloomberg will be the next President of the United States.


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Turkeytop
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by Turkeytop » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:35 pm

Honeyman wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:22 pm
I disagree....not that it will be a brokered convention, but on you nominee. Michael Bloomberg will be the next President of the United States.
Another Billionaire.

Trump 2.1


.Florida man breaks into jail to hang with friends

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Honeyman
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by Honeyman » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:39 pm

Turkeytop wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:35 pm
Honeyman wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:22 pm
I disagree....not that it will be a brokered convention, but on you nominee. Michael Bloomberg will be the next President of the United States.
Another Billionaire.

Trump 2.1
:rollin Yep, but this billionaire actually HAS billions!


LMAO...............so says ............... YOU!

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bmw
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by bmw » Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:46 pm

Honeyman wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:22 pm
I disagree....not that it will be a brokered convention, but on you nominee. Michael Bloomberg will be the next President of the United States.
So you think the Super Delegates will break for Bloomberg? I'm not yet convinced that he will even do particularly well in the primaries.



screen glare
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by screen glare » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:44 am

Biden can’t win because Biden can’t think and speak quickly, normally - anymore. Inability to recall words. Early dementia. Like with Reagan toward the end of Reagan’s second term. Same with Bob Mueller. Too often garbled outcomes when trying to express in words.

Likely undiagnosed Alzheimer’s progression, or after effects of stroke/mini strokes. Started to happen between VP stint and now. Very obvious. Biden must retire.

Probably death of Biden’s honorable superstar son, Beau - was the last personal tragedy he could withstand in his series of such life tragedies.

Too bad. I feel sorry for him.

Bloomberg will be the nominee.

America can’t withstand another four years of mentally ill and disordered Trump. Country ripping apart 60/40. 40% have watched/heard entire Trump presidency through white house propaganda spin of Fox news/Rush Limbaugh. They have no idea what is going on - other than fearful, evil, unAmerican fantasies and tendencies spun steadily round the clock by their favorite far-right media communicators/influencers. All under banner of phony patriotism, and wolf-in-sheep’s-clothing type of un-Christian Christianity.

Putin proud and thrilled. And targeting our presidential election again. The 40% think it’s A-OK. Mission accomplished through Fox/Rush/Russia dark arts, dark hearts media conduits.



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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by zzand » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:42 am

I agree that it will end up being a brokered convention but I am not sure about Bloomberg. He is a wait and see candidate because he has yet to appear on a ballot. After 2016 I trust no polls and don't eve bother looking at them. Once he is on ballots then we will get a real look at his potential to be viable. At this point I don't see any true front runner. The establishment wants nothing to do with Bernie and in my opinion will find a way to sink his run, Mayor Pete will eventually be sunk by his lack of good track record as mayor, he makes more sense as number two on ticket, Warren is done and as for Klobucahr , she may in deed be the wild card. The establishment wants Biden, so time will tell.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Feb 15, 2020 7:22 am

My preliminary prediction is that this ends up going to a brokered convention. If that happens, the Super Delegates get to vote in the second round, and I think they will break heavily for Biden. Despite the vast majority of people thinking Biden is done and has been done for some time (including some regulars in this forum), I still predict that he is the nominee when the dust settles.
I would say the odds of a brokered convention are close to 50 percent at this point.

I think it's too soon to say whom the Super Delegates will rally behind. Could be Biden, but I think it'll more likely be Bloomberg. I still think the power brokers in the Democratic Party like Elizabeth Warren, too. She needs to reconcile her differences with the Bernie Sanders fanboy contingent, though, and her stump speech needs to be sharpened to have any chance of recovering from her anemic New Hampshire showing.

Klobouchar may make a fine running mate for someone like Bloomberg. Tough to imagine a ticket that would be stronger than that one for the Dems.

I give Buttigieg a chance...I really do. But the instant he makes a big mistake on the campaign trail or debate stage, or the moment something truly controversial about his past is revealed, his sails will deflate almost immediately. In other words, he needs to run a nearly flawless campaign to keep his momentum in place.


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Honeyman
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by Honeyman » Sat Feb 15, 2020 10:47 am

It will be very interesting, for sure. I'm old, but not old enough to have lived thru a brokered convention.

I just think Biden is done. No real buzz from supporters, and I honestly get the feeling his heart isn't in it. I really think he lost his internal fire when his son died.

I believe most Democrats, and us left-leaning independents are only concerned with finding the best candidate to beat Trump. To me, Bloomberg now looks like he could be that candidate. But how that would all play out in a brokered convention, I really have no idea.


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bmw
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by bmw » Sat Feb 15, 2020 12:49 pm

Buttigieg polls very poorly among 2 key constituencies within the Democrat party - blacks and Millennials. For whatever reason, younger voters don't like him. I think he's performed as well as he's going to perform and that it is all downhill from here.

I think Elizabeth Warren is and has been toast for a while now. She's the 2nd furthest left candidate in the field and Bernie seems to have most of that wing of the party behind him.

Bloomberg's problem is that he's not just rich. He's filthy rich. To the tune of $60 BILLION That's billion, with a B. In fact, he's the 7th or 8th richest person in the US depending on the source. And the left hates the rich. I'm not sure there's room in the Democrat party for someone who falls into a group that they generally hate.



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Bryce
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by Bryce » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:14 pm

What exactly does Bloomberg bring to the table that would be good for our county; besides not being Trump?


Democrats were all for riots, until they were against them.

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bmw
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by bmw » Sat Feb 15, 2020 1:17 pm

Well he does at least have a decent amount of executive experience. 12 years as mayor of New York city is nothing to sneeze at.

And on a side-note, LOL @ your new avatar.



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Honeyman
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by Honeyman » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:48 pm

Never mind Bloomberg if this is true: https://nypost.com/2020/02/15/bloomberg ... ning-mate/

Probably fake news...hes a lot of things, stupid is not one of them.


LMAO...............so says ............... YOU!

zzand
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Re: Democrat Primary predictions

Post by zzand » Sat Feb 15, 2020 5:07 pm

It is being reported everywhere that he is considering her. If you think about it, it does make sense. Both are from New York. She was in congress for them and she did win the popular vote in 2016. But her star has tarnished and fallen since then and I will say it before someone else does, people who have dealings with the Clinton's have a high death rate.



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