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Weather hysterics
Re: Weather hysterics
Well, I liked what Kevra said the other day when referencing the precipitation estimates for Fri-Sat. He said "the models are all over the place and are saying it could be zero or it could be 3... I'll say it could be more or it could be less... too early to tell!!" At least he was being honest.
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- Posts: 272
- Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:07 pm
- Location: go ahead, I'm listening
Re: Weather hysterics
I just want to know if anyone is 'on the overpass' yet to report.
Re: Weather hysterics
Wake up folks!
Icemaggodon is on your front porch!!
Climate change!!!!
I’m buying up ice at Meijer!!
Oh, wait,it’s a rainstorm, I should have stocked up on beer.
Sorry to bother you. I’ve got enough for tonight.
Can you order it to go yet?
Can Amazon drone in a twelve?
beer emergency in sector 7a!!
Enable drone launch!
Where’s my flying car dammit!
Oh the humanity of it all!
Icemaggodon is on your front porch!!
Climate change!!!!
I’m buying up ice at Meijer!!
Oh, wait,it’s a rainstorm, I should have stocked up on beer.
Sorry to bother you. I’ve got enough for tonight.
Can you order it to go yet?
Can Amazon drone in a twelve?
beer emergency in sector 7a!!
Enable drone launch!
Where’s my flying car dammit!
Oh the humanity of it all!
You're never too old to learn something stupid.
- MWmetalhead
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13051
- Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am
Re: Weather hysterics
So far, the forecast has proven to be a COMPLETE DUD! (at least in terms of precip intensity)
Nothing more than drizzle and very ilght rain in my neck of the woods. I think SE Michigan is going to miss out on most of the heavy rain overnight; it's mainly going to be positioned over Indiana and SW lower Michigan.
I think there will be some heavy rain tomorrow - and some treacherous icing - but I think the computer projections of widespread 2 or 3 inch liquid precip totals is overdone, at least as far as SE Michigan is concerned. (I do think parts of SW Michigan could see totals in that range.)
The hydrologic forecasts put out by NOAA are overzealous. I think minor/moderate river flooding in SE Michigan is likely; I am highly skeptical about the major/record flooding being officially forecast by NOAA.
Nothing more than drizzle and very ilght rain in my neck of the woods. I think SE Michigan is going to miss out on most of the heavy rain overnight; it's mainly going to be positioned over Indiana and SW lower Michigan.
I think there will be some heavy rain tomorrow - and some treacherous icing - but I think the computer projections of widespread 2 or 3 inch liquid precip totals is overdone, at least as far as SE Michigan is concerned. (I do think parts of SW Michigan could see totals in that range.)
The hydrologic forecasts put out by NOAA are overzealous. I think minor/moderate river flooding in SE Michigan is likely; I am highly skeptical about the major/record flooding being officially forecast by NOAA.
DTE Energy paid $752 million in dividends to its shareholders last fiscal year. Remember that the next time they ask the MPSC to approve rate hikes.
- MWmetalhead
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13051
- Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am
Re: Weather hysterics
The rain totals wound up mostly being toward the lower end of the range of the NWS was forecasting. Their maps were showing widespread 2.5 inch to 3.5 inch totals. Most areas wound up seeing 2 to 2.5 inches of liquid equivalent precip from start to finish.
I was correct about river flooding being nowhere nearly as severe as the NOAA projections from Friday. Is there flooding? Yes. But nowhere close to the major / catastrophic flooding that NOAA was forecasting along the Clinton & Rogue River basins.
The computer models did a pretty lousy job handling projected wind speeds; they advertised a pretty significant high wind event. Instead, most saw infrequent gusts to 35 mph here & there. No big deal at all.
The computer models as recently as Friday were also horrendously overzealous on ice accretion. The NWS, to its credit, knew so. Instead of accepting the 1.00"+ totals many models were spitting out, the NWS went with "up to one half inch." Most areas saw 0.3" or less. With surface temperatures so mild Friday evening, I think ice accretion on Saturday was impeded to an extent.
Where the computer models especially failed was snowfall projections. Many on Friday morning were showing 12 - 18"+ over an enormous swath of central & northern Michigan. Again, the NWS knew the models were f*cked up and went with a general 6 to 12 inches in northern lower and 4 to 6 inches across central lower initially. Most places saw much less than even those totals. Northern lower received a general 3 to 6 inches; central lower was generally in the 1 to 3 range.
(Reference: https://www.facebook.com/NWSGaylord)
I was correct about river flooding being nowhere nearly as severe as the NOAA projections from Friday. Is there flooding? Yes. But nowhere close to the major / catastrophic flooding that NOAA was forecasting along the Clinton & Rogue River basins.
The computer models did a pretty lousy job handling projected wind speeds; they advertised a pretty significant high wind event. Instead, most saw infrequent gusts to 35 mph here & there. No big deal at all.
The computer models as recently as Friday were also horrendously overzealous on ice accretion. The NWS, to its credit, knew so. Instead of accepting the 1.00"+ totals many models were spitting out, the NWS went with "up to one half inch." Most areas saw 0.3" or less. With surface temperatures so mild Friday evening, I think ice accretion on Saturday was impeded to an extent.
Where the computer models especially failed was snowfall projections. Many on Friday morning were showing 12 - 18"+ over an enormous swath of central & northern Michigan. Again, the NWS knew the models were f*cked up and went with a general 6 to 12 inches in northern lower and 4 to 6 inches across central lower initially. Most places saw much less than even those totals. Northern lower received a general 3 to 6 inches; central lower was generally in the 1 to 3 range.
(Reference: https://www.facebook.com/NWSGaylord)
DTE Energy paid $752 million in dividends to its shareholders last fiscal year. Remember that the next time they ask the MPSC to approve rate hikes.
Re: Weather hysterics
I think the storm was way over hyped up north. Didn't get tons of snow as foretasted. People were apocalyptic shopping on Friday.
- MWmetalhead
- Site Admin
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- Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am
Re: Weather hysterics
The Weather Channel was doing live reports from Lansing all day Saturday. Reportedly, staple items were in short supply at area grocery stores! A lot of shelves were bare. I guess people were expecting to be without power for several days.
Lansing BWL is reporting zero outages. Consumers only has a few zones of concentrated outages, and they are confined to rural areas. (Montcalm County, for example.)
Lansing BWL is reporting zero outages. Consumers only has a few zones of concentrated outages, and they are confined to rural areas. (Montcalm County, for example.)
DTE Energy paid $752 million in dividends to its shareholders last fiscal year. Remember that the next time they ask the MPSC to approve rate hikes.
Re: Weather hysterics
We got off light in NWL MI. I'm happy about it.
It's weather. Still hard to believe they don't get it right every time. Sometimes works in your favour, sometimes not.
(Now, back to your regularly-scheduled front porch rockin' chair polpot bit chin session)
It's weather. Still hard to believe they don't get it right every time. Sometimes works in your favour, sometimes not.
(Now, back to your regularly-scheduled front porch rockin' chair polpot bit chin session)
"Enjoy every sandwich."
Re: Weather hysterics
The Weather Channel's forecast for my zip code (for Tawas City) were CONSISTENTLY way higher than the National Weather Service forecast numbers that came as part of the Winter Storm Warning.
Per the NWS, we were looking at anywhere from 4-6 to 6-11 inches depending on what time you read the warning information. Per TWC, we were looking at 1-3 inches overnight the night before, then 5-8 inches yesterday, then another 5-8 or 8-12 inches overnight last night depending on what time you looked. In fact, late yesterday evening, TWC was STILL calling for 8-12 inches overnight. Then the dry slot showed up and a mere hours later, they called for "an inch or less." WHAT A JOKE! I don't know how you go from 8-12 inches to an inch or less in mere hours. There's no way the computer model forecasting is THAT bad. And that is part of the problem. So much of the forecasting is purely computer-based these days without a professional weather person intervening and tweaking numbers per common sense.
Our actual total? 3.5 inches. LOL.
Per the NWS, we were looking at anywhere from 4-6 to 6-11 inches depending on what time you read the warning information. Per TWC, we were looking at 1-3 inches overnight the night before, then 5-8 inches yesterday, then another 5-8 or 8-12 inches overnight last night depending on what time you looked. In fact, late yesterday evening, TWC was STILL calling for 8-12 inches overnight. Then the dry slot showed up and a mere hours later, they called for "an inch or less." WHAT A JOKE! I don't know how you go from 8-12 inches to an inch or less in mere hours. There's no way the computer model forecasting is THAT bad. And that is part of the problem. So much of the forecasting is purely computer-based these days without a professional weather person intervening and tweaking numbers per common sense.
Our actual total? 3.5 inches. LOL.
Re: Weather hysterics
I kept hearing different storm totals from different news outlets, NWS, even hearing people talk. It's frustrating everybody says something different so at the end of the day you will believe what you actually see after it happens.
Re: Weather hysterics
It's Sunny in Traverse City with 4 inches on the ground. I can't say I am upset about the storm diminishing. I'm going skiing.
For Kristian Trumpers are not serving our Lord Christ, but their own appetites. By smooth talk and flattery they deceive the minds of naive people.
-Romans 16:18
Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.
-Romans 16:18
Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.
Re: Weather hysterics
I know in my area they got it pretty damn close to right. Lots of wind and rain, in the neighborhood of 4 inches of rain. Thankful it wasn't snow.
- audiophile
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- Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.
Re: Weather hysterics
NWS at least has human look at the forecast before they publish them. The other national weather websites are just software driven.MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:02 amThe rain totals wound up mostly being toward the lower end of the range of the NWS was forecasting. Their maps were showing widespread 2.5 inch to 3.5 inch totals. Most areas wound up seeing 2 to 2.5 inches of liquid equivalent precip from start to finish.
I was correct about river flooding being nowhere nearly as severe as the NOAA projections from Friday. Is there flooding? Yes. But nowhere close to the major / catastrophic flooding that NOAA was forecasting along the Clinton & Rogue River basins.
The computer models did a pretty lousy job handling projected wind speeds; they advertised a pretty significant high wind event. Instead, most saw infrequent gusts to 35 mph here & there. No big deal at all.
The computer models as recently as Friday were also horrendously overzealous on ice accretion. The NWS, to its credit, knew so. Instead of accepting the 1.00"+ totals many models were spitting out, the NWS went with "up to one half inch." Most areas saw 0.3" or less. With surface temperatures so mild Friday evening, I think ice accretion on Saturday was impeded to an extent.
Where the computer models especially failed was snowfall projections. Many on Friday morning were showing 12 - 18"+ over an enormous swath of central & northern Michigan. Again, the NWS knew the models were f*cked up and went with a general 6 to 12 inches in northern lower and 4 to 6 inches across central lower initially. Most places saw much less than even those totals. Northern lower received a general 3 to 6 inches; central lower was generally in the 1 to 3 range.
(Reference: https://www.facebook.com/NWSGaylord)
Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!
- MWmetalhead
- Site Admin
- Posts: 13051
- Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am
Re: Weather hysterics
Yup; moisture plume was more supple in Indiana and western Ohio than Michigan. Ohio had CRAZY weather on Saturday! Cleveland reached the upper 60's! Frontal passage Saturday evening produced numerous wind gust reports of 55 to 65 mph in the Dayton area. Wright Air Force Base's automated weather station reported a "non t-storm gust" of 83 miles per hour! An EF-0 tornado even touched down in Troy, OH on Saturday evening.I know in my area they got it pretty damn close to right. Lots of wind and rain, in the neighborhood of 4 inches of rain. Thankful it wasn't snow.
https://www.wdtn.com/news/local-news/nw ... n-in-troy/
DTE Energy paid $752 million in dividends to its shareholders last fiscal year. Remember that the next time they ask the MPSC to approve rate hikes.
Re: Weather hysterics
Here we go, another week, Snowmaggeddon!
Things we learned last time.
Stock up on beer.
Amazon does not deliver beer by drone.
Sector 7a is on its own.
My flying car was reported stolen in Sterling Heights.
They have given me a Kia to drive temporarily.
It does not fly, nor even make the speed limit uphill.
It is also snowing like crazy at this point in time, so they did get this one right, it seems.
Things we learned last time.
Stock up on beer.
Amazon does not deliver beer by drone.
Sector 7a is on its own.
My flying car was reported stolen in Sterling Heights.
They have given me a Kia to drive temporarily.
It does not fly, nor even make the speed limit uphill.
It is also snowing like crazy at this point in time, so they did get this one right, it seems.
You're never too old to learn something stupid.