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Hurricane Dorian

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bmw
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Hurricane Dorian

Post by bmw » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:19 pm

This track looks like fun.

Image



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by MWmetalhead » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:37 pm

In the past decade, it seems the NHC and forecast models are almost always wrong when they project a significant hurricane to strike the eastern Florida coastline.

The forecast track by the time the storm reaches the Bahamas almost always (a) changes to a more northerly track toward the Carolinas or (b) a more southerly track toward the Florida Keys.

So, I'm highly skeptical that Fort Pierce and Melbourne will ultimately be in the line of direct fire.

Wouldn't it be something if it moved over Palm Beach County? :blink

My prediction: The storm will stall a good 150+ miles offshore of the Florida coast, will wobble over the open waters, and gradually weaken. It might eventually strike the Carolina coast as a CAT 1 or a tropical storm.


Caroline Beasley is ruining WRIF. What a bitch!!!

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Turkeytop
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by Turkeytop » Thu Aug 29, 2019 6:42 pm

We were planning to leave next Tuesday for Florida. Now we're thinking we might want to hold off for a day or two. Our place is in the Tampa Bay area. The storm isn't really a threat there. But in 2016, we drove down while a hurricane was battering the Atlantic coast of Florida and after we got past Atlanta, there wasn't a hotel room available anywhere. They were all taken by hurricane refugees from Florida. I had to drive straight through and arrived there about 3:00 AM.



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audiophile
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by audiophile » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:13 pm

I always drive straight through and get there by 8 or 9 pm.


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Turkeytop
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by Turkeytop » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:17 pm

We usually stop the first night in southern KY, the second night in southern GA and arrive there around noon on day 3.



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audiophile
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by audiophile » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:29 pm

Why so early? Still good weather up here.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

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Turkeytop
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by Turkeytop » Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:40 pm

We always go down for a few weeks every fall to get the place tidied up. We're going extra early this year because we have to be back here early. Our federal election is Oct. 21. We have to toss out the Liberals.



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Ben Zonia
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by Ben Zonia » Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:54 am

Image


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fuzzpower
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by fuzzpower » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:00 am

All of the panic alert news stories pretty much ignored the USVI, focusing on Puerto Rico and if it will hit Florida. It was the same when Irma and Maria hit. Those islands were devastated, so much so that there was still cleanup and traffic lights out when I visited St. Thomas and St. Croix this past January. However, let’s focus on Puerto Rico.



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Turkeytop
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by Turkeytop » Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:14 am

We arrived at our place in Florida about a week after Irma. There were still empty store shelves and a few isolated power outages. It took them about six months to clean up all the downed trees.



TC Shuts Up
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by TC Shuts Up » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:00 am

I don''t know why people in Canada feel so strongly about politics in the USA, and keep sticking their noses in. At least the remaining two Beatles, Elton John, Ray Davies, and other near Billionaires from the UK make their residence here, if only for the tax advantages that they think THEY should have, but not the peons Bernie Sanders wants to steal from.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 161886001/
Last edited by TC Shuts Up on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Turkeytop
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by Turkeytop » Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:11 am

TC Shuts Up wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:00 am
I don''t know why people in Canada feel so strongly about politics in the USA, and keep sticking their noses in. At least the remaining two Beatles, Elton John, Ray Davies, and other near Billionaires from the UK make their residence here, if only for the tax advantages that they think THEY should have, but not the peons Bernie Sanders wants to steal from.

I go to Florida to enjoy the climate, not to stick my nose into your politics.

One year when we were there, they were holding a special election for the 13th Congressional District. I dropped in to the the campaign office of the Democratic candidate just to wish her well. She was out, of course, but I introduced myself to the woman at the front desk as a socialist from Canada. She recoiled in horror like I had just waved my privates at her. I cleared out of there.

Her candidate ultimately lost to Republican David Jolly, who turned out to be a very fine representative for the people of his district.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:45 pm

Latest forecast has shifted the track significantly eastward, introducing a decent chance of the center of circulation remaining completely offshore of Florida.

Shocking!


Caroline Beasley is ruining WRIF. What a bitch!!!

bmw
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by bmw » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:01 pm

The European models show it missing land completely. The GFS has it barely making landfall and then hitting the Carolinas.

I don't understand how computer models can consistently make the same mistakes over and over and over again without human beings fixing the algorithms.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:29 pm

These dopey forecasters almost never take into account the forecast models' inherent bias!!! Rather incredible, ain't it?

And you're absolutely right - the models need to be reprogrammed.


Caroline Beasley is ruining WRIF. What a bitch!!!

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