Post 'em here. I'm listing all states declared as swing states by Real Clear Politics. Here are my predictions (including margins of victory in each state) :
Trump:
5.1% Georgia (16)
3.6% Arizona (11)
3.2% Iowa (6)
1.8% Ohio (18)
0.6% Florida (29)
0.5% New Hampshire (4)
0.2% Maine CD2 (1)
0.2% North Carolina (15)
0.1% Nevada (6)
Clinton:
6.1% New Mexico (5)
5.3% Maine (2)
4.7% Michigan (16)
4.6% Colorado (9)
2.2% Pennsylvania (20)
Trump wins, 270-268
EDIT - I'm changing my predictions (election day morning) as follows:
Nevada to Hillary (0.5%)
New Hampshire to Hillary (0.5%)
Michigan to Trump (1.1%)
Trump wins, 276-262
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Final electoral map predictions
Final electoral map predictions
Last edited by bmw on Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'll make my final on Tuesday... over 300 for Clinton... trump in the low 200's...
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Y M Ionhere
- Posts: 661
- Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:31 pm
- Location: Where the sun no longer shines
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I think there will be few changes from the 2012 electoral map. I don't think any blue states will switch. How anyone thinks that NH or Maine will go red is beyond me. I am definitely not a biased Hillary fan. However, I dont think shes beatable. Trump is too weak a candidate to take her down in loyally blue states.
Georgia- Trump: 52%
Arizona-Trump: 51%
Iowa- Clinton:52%
Florida- Clinton: 51%
New Hampshire- Clinton: 54-56%
Maine- Clinton: 55%
North Carolina- Clinton: 51%
Nevada- Clinton: 52%
Colorado- Clinton:54%
Michigan-Clinton: 55%
Ohio-Trump:51%
Georgia- Trump: 52%
Arizona-Trump: 51%
Iowa- Clinton:52%
Florida- Clinton: 51%
New Hampshire- Clinton: 54-56%
Maine- Clinton: 55%
North Carolina- Clinton: 51%
Nevada- Clinton: 52%
Colorado- Clinton:54%
Michigan-Clinton: 55%
Ohio-Trump:51%
Re: Final electoral map predictions
To be clear, that is only a single Congressional District (CD2) for a single electoral vote as Maine is not winner-take-all.Y M Ionhere wrote:How anyone thinks that NH or Maine will go red is beyond me.
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Final electoral map predictions
Florida, New Hampshire and Maine CD-2 you are probably wrong on. Nevada as well. He's toast.bmw wrote:Post 'em here. I'm listing all states declared as swing states by Real Clear Politics. Here are my predictions (including margins of victory in each state) :
Trump:
5.1% Georgia (16)
3.6% Arizona (11)
3.2% Iowa (6)
1.8% Ohio (18)
0.6% Florida (29)
0.5% New Hampshire (4)
0.2% Maine CD2 (1)
0.2% North Carolina (15)
0.1% Nevada (6)
Clinton:
6.1% New Mexico (5)
5.3% Maine (2)
4.7% Michigan (16)
4.6% Colorado (9)
2.2% Pennsylvania (20)
Trump wins, 270-268
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I think Trump can and may possibly win, but if I had to bet, I'm going with the numbers, even with my serious concerns about the accuracy of polling. If Trump wins all the states that I have predicted him to win and somehow peels away Nevada and New Hampshire, we're at 269-269.
As a bonus prediction, the Republicans hold the Senate and only have a net loss of two seats. They will win Nevada and lose Illinois and Pennsylvania. The final loss will be 1 of Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Missouri.
Edit: Don't count out Colorado as a pickup chance for Republicans in the Senate...
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Final electoral map predictions
323-215 Clinton... Ohio and Iowa to Trump offset by North Carolina, Florida and Nevada for Clinton... the blue wall holds.
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audiophile
- Posts: 8569
- Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:21 pm
- Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
These are union households too.
Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.NS8401 wrote:I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'm going with CNN.Matt wrote:Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.NS8401 wrote:I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.NS8401 wrote:I'm going with CNN.Matt wrote:Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.NS8401 wrote:I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.NS8401 wrote:I'm going with CNN.Matt wrote:Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.NS8401 wrote:I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.
These are union households too.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
Am I the only person that thinks Bret Baier looks like an action figure come to life?Matt wrote:
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.
Re: Final electoral map predictions
IF she wins, it'll be a squeaker. If he wins, it'll be quite large.