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See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

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See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:34 pm

Here is my proposed map for the U.S. Congressional Districts:

https://districtr.org/plan/49331

Some notes:
- Presidential vote data by proposed district is based on 2016, not 2020. I cannot help that; the free Districtr software only has 2016 Presidential data loaded. Trump held the advantage in 8 of my 13 proposed districts, but note that 4 of the 13 districts are within a percentage point of 50 percent. Why is this even relevant? Michigan (idiotically) still has straight ticket voting. In Presidential election years, the outcome of that race, by congressional district, is often a good predictor of who will win down ballot partisan races, including the congressional seat.
- On the flip side of the coin, when using Governor and State AG race voting data from 2018 as a proxy, a large majority of my proposed Congressional Districts voted for Whitmer and Nessel, respectively. Again, the straight ticket consideration comes into play. In 2018, 8 of my 13 proposed districts voted for Whitmer. There were fewer tight margins by district in her race, which makes sense, because Whitmer commanded a higher percentage of the statewide vote in 2018 than Trump did in 2016.
- I keep the City of Detroit within a single district.
- I keep Flint and the City of Saginaw within one district to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- I placed Southfield and Pontiac within one district to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- I keep Grand Rapids and all of its suburbs within one district. I paired Muskegon & Muskegon Heights with Greater G.R. to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- The U.P. and nearly all of northern lower Michigan along & north of M-55 is within one district. Manistee County is the exception (I kept it united with Mason County in order to keep District #13 under 800,000 persons; Manistee & Mason County are in the same radio broadcast market).
- I keep Lansing and Jackson within one district.

I think my map makes a LOT of sense. No limp noodle district shapes. No significant cities cut into two separate districts.

Entire counties are kept together wherever possible. This makes things easier for county clerks, voters and candidates alike.

All districts on my map have between 740,000 and 800,000 persons.

When opening the URL, please click on the "Data Layers" tab and make sure both "show painted districts" and "show numbering for painted districts" are each marked. (There is no rhyme or reason for the district numbers; they are numbered in the order I chose to draw them.)

In case anyone is wondering, I did indeed submit my proposed map to the Redistricting Commission for consideration!

One aspect the Commission may not like: based on my proposed map, a number of incumbent Congresspersons would wind up residing in common districts, which ultimately would result in some incumbents losing their seats. One example - Bill Huizinga and Fred Upton would each fall into the same lakeshore district, requiring a primary face-off if each were to seek reelection. Example #2 - Andy Levin (Bloomfield Hills), Elissa Slotkin (Holly Twp.) and Brenda Lawrence (Southfield) would require a three-way primary face-off! I believe Haley Stevens, who resides in Rochester Hills, would not need to square off against an incumbent, although her district would look *very* different from her existing district in terms of municipalities.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by Deleted User 9015 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 10:53 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sun Sep 19, 2021 5:34 pm
Here is my proposed map for the U.S. Congressional Districts:

https://districtr.org/plan/49331

Some notes:
- Presidential vote data by proposed district is based on 2016, not 2020. I cannot help that; the free Districtr software only has 2016 Presidential data loaded. Trump held the advantage in 8 of my 13 proposed districts, but note that 4 of the 13 districts are within a percentage point of 50 percent. Why is this even relevant? Michigan (idiotically) still has straight ticket voting. In Presidential election years, the outcome of that race, by congressional district, is often a good predictor of who will win down ballot partisan races, including the congressional seat.
- On the flip side of the coin, when using Governor and State AG race voting data from 2018 as a proxy, a large majority of my proposed Congressional Districts voted for Whitmer and Nessel, respectively. Again, the straight ticket consideration comes into play. In 2018, 8 of my 13 proposed districts voted for Whitmer. There were fewer tight margins by district in her race, which makes sense, because Whitmer commanded a higher percentage of the statewide vote in 2018 than Trump did in 2016.
- I keep the City of Detroit within a single district.
- I keep Flint and the City of Saginaw within one district to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- I placed Southfield and Pontiac within one district to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- I keep Grand Rapids and all of its suburbs within one district. I paired Muskegon & Muskegon Heights with Greater G.R. to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- The U.P. and nearly all of northern lower Michigan along & north of M-55 is within one district. Manistee County is the exception (I kept it united with Mason County in order to keep District #13 under 800,000 persons; Manistee & Mason County are in the same radio broadcast market).
- I keep Lansing and Jackson within one district.

I think my map makes a LOT of sense. No limp noodle district shapes. No significant cities cut into two separate districts.

Entire counties are kept together wherever possible. This makes things easier for county clerks, voters and candidates alike.

All districts on my map have between 740,000 and 800,000 persons.

When opening the URL, please click on the "Data Layers" tab and make sure both "show painted districts" and "show numbering for painted districts" are each marked. (There is no rhyme or reason for the district numbers; they are numbered in the order I chose to draw them.)

In case anyone is wondering, I did indeed submit my proposed map to the Redistricting Commission for consideration!

One aspect the Commission may not like: based on my proposed map, a number of incumbent Congresspersons would wind up residing in common districts, which ultimately would result in some incumbents losing their seats. One example - Bill Huizinga and Fred Upton would each fall into the same lakeshore district, requiring a primary face-off if each were to seek reelection. Example #2 - Andy Levin (Bloomfield Hills), Elissa Slotkin (Holly Twp.) and Brenda Lawrence (Southfield) would require a three-way primary face-off! I believe Haley Stevens, who resides in Rochester Hills, would not need to square off against an incumbent, although her district would look *very* different from her existing district in terms of municipalities.
I cant see anything there.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by Splouge » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:49 pm

The Pointes with Bad Axe?


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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:45 am

There are only 13 districts and there are population requirements that must be met. The pie can only be sliced so many ways.

The shape of that district is similar to the existing District 10. I simply extracted Lapeer County and added more real estate along I-94.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:24 am

Here's my new one. I think this one is better than the one I composed yesterday.

https://districtr.org/plan/49504

Fewer incumbent face-offs and better geographic association.

Because so many Congresspeople currently reside in Oakland County (four live here by my count), it is almost impossible to avoid a primary face-off there. In my 49504 plan, Haley Stevens (Rochester), Andy Levin (Bloomfield Hills) and Brenda Lawrence (Southfield) would square-off, if all were to choose to run for Congress again.

Elsewhere in Metro Detroit, McClain, Dingell, Talib, and Walberg would all be safe.

In the Flint & NW Oakland County area, Kildee and Slotkin (who resides in either Holly or Holly Twp.) would be required to face off.

On the west side of state, Meijer, Upton and Huizinga would not have to "primary" against another incumbent.

In Mid-Michigan, I believe Moolenaar would avoid having to primary against another incumbent, too.

One key difference is Flint & Saginaw are now in separate districts based on my revised proposed U.S. Congressional seat boundaries.

The 2016 Presidential election results by district are very similar to the one I drew yesterday (Trump wins 8 of 13 districts with narrow margins in several). Whitmer also still wins 8 of 13 congressional districts on my new map, but in a few of the districts, the margin of victory is now very narrow.

These boundaries will help ensure highly competitive elections on a go forward basis.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:52 am

I do have to say, by the way, that it is absurd that Oakland County residents hold more than one quarter of the state's entire Congressional seat allocation despite the county holding only 13 percent or so of Michigan's population.

The gerrymanderers from 2010 banked on most of Oakland County remaining solid red. Boy were they wrong! All four residing Congresspeople from Oakland County are Democrats.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by audiophile » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:41 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:24 am
Here's my new one. I think this one is better than the one I composed yesterday.

https://districtr.org/plan/49504

Fewer incumbent face-offs and better geographic association.

Because so many Congresspeople currently reside in Oakland County (four live here by my count), it is almost impossible to avoid a primary face-off there. In my 49504 plan, Haley Stevens (Rochester), Andy Levin (Bloomfield Hills) and Brenda Lawrence (Southfield) would square-off, if all were to choose to run for Congress again.

Elsewhere in Metro Detroit, McClain, Dingell, Talib, and Walberg would all be safe.

In the Flint & NW Oakland County area, Kildee and Slotkin (who resides in either Holly or Holly Twp.) would be required to face off.

On the west side of state, Meijer, Upton and Huizinga would not have to "primary" against another incumbent.

In Mid-Michigan, I believe Moolenaar would avoid having to primary against another incumbent, too.

One key difference is Flint & Saginaw are now in separate districts based on my revised proposed U.S. Congressional seat boundaries.

The 2016 Presidential election results by district are very similar to the one I drew yesterday (Trump wins 8 of 13 districts with narrow margins in several). Whitmer also still wins 8 of 13 congressional districts on my new map, but in a few of the districts, the margin of victory is now very narrow.

These boundaries will help ensure highly competitive elections on a go forward basis.
Much better!


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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 20, 2021 10:21 am

Thanks! That means a lot, as I respect your opinion quite a bit on political matters. :)

I am going to draw one more map this evening where I combine Southfield and perhaps Oak Park with Detroit.

I agree that my 49504 map is better than my output from yesterday. I have a feeling it will hold up well to my next one, too.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by bmw » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:14 am

As a resident of Iosco county (Tawas/Oscoda), I must say that I am torn on whether I think we should be part of the northern-most district that includes the U.P. or whether we should be the northern-most part of the Tri-Cities district. We're kind of in a transition zone - a lot of people consider us as being "up north" yet we rely heavily on tourism from the Tri-Cities area, and honestly, we're far more likely as residents to travel to Bay City/Saginaw than to say West Branch or Alpena. I certainly don't like how right now we're part of the same district that includes Flint. The way you have it drawn up now I think I could live with



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:50 am

Out of curiosity, which map do you prefer? The one I drew yesterday afternoon or the one I drew this morning?



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by bmw » Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:04 pm

The latter one - at least as it pertains to my region (I can't comment on the rest of the state as I don't have enough knowledge to do so). That region makes far more sense than the tall skinny one that currently connects Oscoda to Flint.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:27 pm

Here is yet another map from yours truly.

This one moves Southfield into District 1 (with Detroit) and moves some inner downriver suburbs out of District 1 and into Debbie Dingell's district.

Instead of Brenda Lawrence facing Levin and Slotkin in a primary, under this scenario, she would instead face Talib.

Some other minor changes were made in far western Wayne County, portions of Oakland County, portions of Shiawassee County, and portions of Lenawee County.

District 1's Dem voting percentage increases from ~90% to ~95% with these changes, which makes surrounding districts a little more red. Whitmer still prevails in 8 of 13 districts, but 2 of those 8 wins are now extremely tight under this map. One or two districts that were a horse race in the 2016 Presidential race on my 49504 map are now more firmly in the Trump column on this new map.

So, in terms of closing the unearned partisan gap, this new map doesn't work as well as my 49504 map, as 2016's very narrow Presidential win (statewide) by the GOP is now even more likely to translate to victories in 8 of 13 Congressional districts, whereas Whitmer's comfortable 2018 statewide victory margin only translates to solid Dem victories in 6 of 13 Congressional districts and extreme nail biter victories in 2 other districts.

https://districtr.org/plan/50065



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by Realist » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:43 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:50 am
Out of curiosity, which map do you prefer? The one I drew yesterday afternoon or the one I drew this morning?
I live in Iosco also. As much as I don’t want MOOlennar representing us, I’d want Bergman even less. Unfortunately the preliminary map that was released by the Independent Commission the other day drawing the new boundaries showed Iosco being bunched in with all the other northern Michigan counties and the UP.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:07 pm

Well, my 49504 and 50065 maps would give you the MOO-man. ;)

It would be somewhat difficult to draw a map to give you guys Kildee, who I presume would be your preference. I literally would have to slice Genesee, Saginaw and perhaps Bay County into chunks, which goes against one of my core principles.

My 49504 map is leaps and bounds better than the initial draft posted by the commission, in my opinion.



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Re: See my proposed U.S. Congressional District map for MIchigan

Post by Realist » Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:59 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:07 pm
Well, my 49504 and 50065 maps would give you the MOO-man. ;)

It would be somewhat difficult to draw a map to give you guys Kildee, who I presume would be your preference. I literally would have to slice Genesee, Saginaw and perhaps Bay County into chunks, which goes against one of my core principles.

My 49504 map is leaps and bounds better than the initial draft posted by the commission, in my opinion.
I’m sure that most people are not going to be completely happy with the results of all this redistricting. I guess it is what it is with the Congressional districts.

What I’m more interested in is decent fairly drawn State Rep and State Senate maps. For the past 10 years, the complete GOP gerrymandering for this area has been pathetic. We used to be part of the State Rep district that also included Ogemaw County. Instead, 10 years ago, they cut Ogemaw out and added all of Presque Isle and most of Cheboygan County so the GOP could accommodate their hand picked candidates who were/are worthless. Make it fair.



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