Acceptable registrations in the queue through March 16 at 11:00a ET have now been activated. Enjoy! -M.W.

Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619

For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Debate and discussion of current events and political issues in the State of Michigan. Be forewarned -- this forum is NOT for the intellectually weak or those of you with thin skins. Don't come crying to me if you become the subject of ridicule. **Board Administrator reserves the right to revoke posting privileges based on my sole discretion**
User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11872
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Sep 19, 2021 4:54 pm

Here is my proposed map for the U.S. Congressional Districts:

https://districtr.org/plan/49331

Some notes:
- Presidential vote data by proposed district is based on 2016, not 2020. I cannot help that; the free Districtr software only has 2016 Presidential data loaded. Trump held the advantage in 8 of my 13 proposed districts, but note that 4 of the 13 districts are within a percentage point of 50 percent. Why is this even relevant? Michigan (idiotically) still has straight ticket voting. In Presidential election years, the outcome of that race, by congressional district, is often a good predictor of who will win down ballot partisan races, including the congressional seat.
- On the flip side of the coin, when using Governor and State AG race voting data from 2018 as a proxy, a large majority of my proposed Congressional Districts voted for Whitmer and Nessel, respectively. Again, the straight ticket consideration comes into play. In 2018, 8 of my 13 proposed districts voted for Whitmer. There were fewer tight margins by district in her race, which makes sense, because Whitmer commanded a higher percentage of the statewide vote in 2018 than Trump did in 2016.
- I keep the City of Detroit within a single district.
- I keep Flint and the City of Saginaw within one district to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- I placed Southfield and Pontiac within one district to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- I keep Grand Rapids and all of its suburbs within one district. I paired Muskegon & Muskegon Heights with Greater G.R. to ensure African American interests are adequately represented.
- The U.P. and nearly all of northern lower Michigan along & north of M-55 is within one district. Manistee County is the exception (I kept it united with Mason County in order to keep District #13 under 800,000 persons; Manistee & Mason County are in the same radio broadcast market).
- I keep Lansing and Jackson within one district.

I think my map makes a LOT of sense. No limp noodle district shapes. No significant cities cut into two separate districts.

Entire counties are kept together wherever possible. This makes things easier for county clerks, voters and candidates alike.

All districts on my map have between 740,000 and 800,000 persons.

When opening the URL, please click on the "Data Layers" tab and make sure both "show painted districts" and "show numbering for painted districts" are each marked. (There is no rhyme or reason for the district numbers; they are numbered in the order I chose to draw them.)



km1125
Posts: 3570
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:09 pm

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by km1125 » Sun Sep 19, 2021 9:25 pm

I'm just wondering... why should color matter?



User avatar
Splouge
Posts: 373
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:34 pm

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by Splouge » Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:43 pm

Federal law requires that districts don't deviate too much from the target population. For state legislative districts, a deviation of 5% is allowed. For congressional districts, a deviation of I think 1000 people is allowed


"Wanna watch some syndicated slop with very little budget or entertainment value? You got it buddy!"

-Byron "The Broadcast Butcher" Allen

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11872
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 20, 2021 6:57 am

I will try drawing an alternate map within the next couple days to see which I like better.



ftballfan
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 6:38 pm

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by ftballfan » Tue Sep 21, 2021 8:03 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sat Sep 18, 2021 3:56 pm
Many thanks for the link.

With the exception of Berrien and the small portion of Jackson County allocated to District 7, District 8 covers a series of entire counties that are adjacent to one another. I honestly have no issue with the configuration of District 8. It can be canvassed quite easily via I-94 or US-12.

There is some room for improvement for the configuration of districts in SE MIchigan. I will agree with you there. I would've liked to have seen the entire City of Detroit served by the same congressional district, for example. Macomb County is segmented in an unusual way. Most notably, the City of Warren is split between two districts (most of the city falls in District 1, but not all of it). Given the fact Warren is a top five city in the state in terms of population, it should have unified representation in Congress. (It bears noting that the current map adopted in 2010 subdivides Sterling Heights in bizarre fashion.)

Overall, the map is a moderate improvement from the current one; however, I believe there is certainly room for additional improvement. Completely agree that the configuration of District 12 is a clusterfuck. To expect the same Congressman to campaign in Mt. Pleasant and Ironwood is unreasonable.
Here is who is in each district based on that map:
District 1: OPEN (safe D)
District 2: Tlaib (D)
District 3: Lawrence (D), Levin (D)
District 4: Meijer (R)
District 5: OPEN (tossup, slight lean R)
District 6: Stevens (D)
District 7: Dingell (D)
District 8: Walberg (R)
District 9: Huizenga (R), Upton (R)
District 10: Kildee (D), Slotkin (D)
District 11: McClain (R), Moolenaar (R)
District 12: Bergman (R)
District 13: OPEN (safe R)

Huizenga might live in District 4 or 9, but if the map were like this, he'd likely run in District 13, which is a lot of his current district plus most of northern lower Michigan



User avatar
Splouge
Posts: 373
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2015 2:34 pm

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by Splouge » Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:47 pm

The commission has uploaded some new draft maps. The only thing that's common among all of them is that they fixed that awful UP district. But this one is very different from the first draft, and I really like this one:

https://michigan.mydistricting.com/legd ... lan/144/23


"Wanna watch some syndicated slop with very little budget or entertainment value? You got it buddy!"

-Byron "The Broadcast Butcher" Allen

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11872
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed Sep 22, 2021 5:36 pm

Not bad! However, I prefer my maps. :)



ftballfan
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 6:38 pm

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by ftballfan » Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:00 pm

Splouge wrote:
Wed Sep 22, 2021 2:47 pm
The commission has uploaded some new draft maps. The only thing that's common among all of them is that they fixed that awful UP district. But this one is very different from the first draft, and I really like this one:

https://michigan.mydistricting.com/legd ... lan/144/23
Who would be based in each district:
District 1: Bergman (R)
District 2: NONE (safe R) [Huizenga or Moolenaar could move here]
District 3: Huizenga (R), Meijer (R)
District 4: NONE (toss-up) [Slotkin could move here]
District 5: Kildee (D), Moolenaar (R)
District 6: Upton (R)
District 7: Walberg (R)
District 8: Dingell (D)
District 9: Levin (D), Stevens (D)
District 10: McClain (R), Slotkin (D)
District 11: NONE (leans D)
District 12: Lawrence (D), Tlaib (D)
District 13: NONE (safe D) [Tlaib or Lawrence could move here]

There would be up to five districts with incumbents running against each other in either the primary or the general election!



Matt
Posts: 9847
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by Matt » Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:25 am



What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

User avatar
audiophile
Posts: 8546
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:21 pm
Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by audiophile » Fri Oct 08, 2021 10:08 am



Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11872
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Oct 08, 2021 7:10 pm

Her comments were foolish and unnecessary.

At the end of the day, the Michigan congressional delegation will probably be split 7-6, and more often than not, the GOP will hold the extra seat.

Based on population trends, it is definitely eastern Michigan who should forfeit a seat. Most congressional seats in eastern Michigan are held by Dems.

Absent splitting Wayne County a half dozen different ways in shoestring fashion (which in and of itself would be an unethical gerrymander), the GOP at the Congressional level will always hold an inherent advantage versus statewide popular vote. That is simply a function of Detroiters voting overwhelmingly for the Democrats and partisan splits in other areas of the state being less extreme.

The area where room for biggest improvement may exist in terms of fairness are the Michigan House and Senate districts. I've not analyzed those draft maps.



Matt
Posts: 9847
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by Matt » Fri Nov 05, 2021 8:02 am

This "independent" commission continues to be a shit show: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... 289116001/


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11872
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Nov 06, 2021 8:43 am

I think it's great nearly all of this conversation is occurring OUT IN THE OPEN with ample opportunity for public input as opposed to entirely behind closed doors in a secretive process that is manipulated by partisan lobbyists (as was the case under the old system).

The commission has made significant adjustments to proposed maps based on public input from ordinary citizens; that would've never happened under the old system.

Passionate debate is not uncommon on sensitive topics that have far reaching implications.



MasterB
Posts: 1398
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:59 pm
Location: Kalamazoo

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by MasterB » Sun Nov 07, 2021 12:54 am

Both sides seem to have complained about the commission they must be doing their jobs ticking off both sides.


Go Pistons, Let's Go Redwings.

Matt
Posts: 9847
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: For all you rubes that thought an "independent" commission was needed

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:21 pm



What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

Post Reply Previous topicNext topic