Masks In Michigan

[MWmetalhead]

.There were 10.700 people at the Big House on Saturday. Not too long ago, that would have been called a "super spreader" event. Now, it seems 10.700 people sitting shoulder to shoulder is just dandy.

I think you mean 107,000.

Vaccines weren't available on a widespread basis when the term "super spreader" was being used.

[MWmetalhead]

...but the point was that the CDC was warning folks not to use these because they might not be up to N-95 specs, due to quality control issues. How do you think that this "N-95" mask that doesn't quite make the grade compares to all the surgical masks and home-made masks folks are using?? If the "not quite up to the task" N-95 one is a risk to use, doesn't that make any mask that's "not quite up to an N-95" also a risk?

I'd like to see the CDC text verbatim.

It is possible the advisory was simply warning users not to expect N-95 level protection from such masks.

There are environments where anything short of N-95 level protection provides little to no protection to the unvaccinated, such as hospital wards loaded with COVID-infected patients.

There are heavy industrial operations where N-95 level protection is required to reduce exposure risk to contaminants floating in the air.

[Matt]

During the same time, CDC received reports from 49 U.S. states and territories of 12,908 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died.

How many hospitalizations or deaths were there among the non-vaccinated over that same time period?

A LOT more of unvaccinated people are getting hospitalized and dying. The quote is very misleading as it should separate hospitalizations from deaths, in order to incite more fear.

[bmw]

So do car accidents. I assume you're also avoiding riding in or driving in motor vehicles? You know, to make absolute certain you don't die.

That's kind of a stupid analogy, don't you think?

Avoiding motor transportation is incredibly inconvenient in some cases. Some people must drive for work.

Please explain how wearing a face mask in public spaces causes major inconvenience with regard to normal daily activity.

If you were comparing, say, preventative shut-downs in the post-vaccine environment to driving, then the analogy would make sense.

As a preliminary matter, there's a lot of math to follow, so please bear with me....

I will concede that wearing a face mask in public doesn't constitute a "major" inconvenience. Many would consider it at least a minor to moderate inconvenience, however.

That said, please explain how the degree of "inconvenience" is important to the analogy. Are you suggesting that the more inconvenient something is to someone that a higher risk of death is acceptable? I would agree that it is. But that is only half of the equation. The other half is HOW MUCH MORE dangerous? Let's look at the numbers.

2,437 people with break-through cases killed (per the CDC, in 8 months)
38,000 people killed in vehicle-related accidents (annually)

To make this an equal comparison, the Covid deaths have to be adjusted for the fact that not all of the population is vaccinated and for the fact that we only have 2/3 of a year's worth of data. The annual average would be 3,656 deaths. Then further adjusting for the fact that the AVERAGE vaccination rate over that 8 month span is about 40%, we can only analyze 40% of the vehicle-related deaths, so those numbers comparatively fall to 15,200 deaths.

So to summarize, we're comparing 15,200 vehicle-related deaths to 3,656 breakthrough deaths, meaning that a random person riding in or driving in a car is 4.15x more likely to die in a car accident than is a vaccinated person to die from a breakthrough case of Covid.

But there's one more variable to look at. How much does actually wearing that mask in public reduce your odds of catching Covid in the first place? If you go by the study that TCT was touting, that number is 9.3%. That means wearing a mask doesn't 100% mitigate your odds of catching Covid and dying, but rather only mitigates those odds by 9.3%. Meaning, the number of lives saved by everyone wearing a mask drops by a little over 10x, or from 2,437 people to 227 people. Staying out of an automobile, however, is much closer to 100% mitigation (as only a small fraction of those killed were pedestrians). I don't know what the exact number is, but let's say that 90% of vehicle-related deaths are incurred by someone inside of the car.

Final math for my analogy:
4.15 x (100 / 9.3) x0.9

I end up with a final number of stepping foot into a vehicle being 43.5x more likely to kill you than is Covid to kill you in a breakthrough case by catching Covid in public because you weren't wearing a mask.

So to finally answer your question (whether my analogy is "stupid" or not), I would suggest that the difference in inconvenience between the 2 is significantly mitigated by the fact that one (getting into a vehicle) is 43 times more dangerous than the other (going into public vaccinated but without a mask). Point being, that the gain of wearing a mask if you're already vaccinated is negligible to the point of where so many other things in your daily life are far more likely to kill you than not wearing that mask, hence, why waste so much of your time and energy worrying about properly buying, wearing, and handling a mask on a daily basis?

[Bryce]

.There were 10.700 people at the Big House on Saturday. Not too long ago, that would have been called a "super spreader" event. Now, it seems 10.700 people sitting shoulder to shoulder is just dandy.

I think you mean 107,000.

Vaccines weren't available on a widespread basis when the term "super spreader" was being used.

Yup, that's what I meant to type. With all the breakthrough cases, the fact that UofM requires students and staff to be vaccinated, I'm just curious why football is held to different rules.

[MWmetalhead]

Here are the rules for Michigan Stadium:

Fans will be required to wear face coverings when inside any indoor areas including restrooms, M Den stores and premium club suites.

I'd be curious to hear from anyone who attended Saturday's game if those rules were actually being enforced.

Students on campus should NOT be required to wear a mask if outdoors. Does anyone know if such a requirement exists?

[MWmetalhead]

I thank you for the very diligent follow up post, bmw.

To be clear - I steadfastly oppose any governmental mask mandate for folks who have been fully vaccinated, or if not fully vaccinated, have otherwise been confirmed as possessing sufficient antibodies.

I also agree that for those who have been vaccinated *and* are not immuno-compromised, the risk of suffering severe illness from COVID are very, very low and the risk of suffering death is even lower. All the more reason to get the vaccine!

For me, it all boils down to cost-benefit analysis and degree of inconvenience. Driving a car, or riding in a car, is necessary for many folks to complete essential daily tasks.

(Although not pertinent to the specific point you & I are debating, the number of unvaccinated, I might add, who have suffered fatal outcomes at the hands of COVID far exceeds your 38,000 annual car fatalities figure.)

I would be curious to know how many of the 38,000 annual vehicular deaths are suffered by those at fault versus innocent victims.

Are you suggesting that the more inconvenient something is to someone that a higher risk of death is acceptable?

I would perhaps replace the term "inconvenient" with "costly," but yes, I am indeed essentially making that argument, especially if we are talking about oneself.

To make this an equal comparison, the Covid deaths have to be adjusted for the fact that not all of the population is vaccinated and for the fact that we only have 2/3 of a year's worth of data. The annual average would be 3,656 deaths. Then further adjusting for the fact that the AVERAGE vaccination rate over that 8 month span is about 40%, we can only analyze 40% of the vehicle-related deaths, so those numbers comparatively fall to 15,200 deaths.

Valid points, and great data, but I would add our road systems are much more static than dynamic and driving patterns evolve slowly over time. In other words, one knows what he or she is "getting into."

There is much more uncertainty regarding how COVID will morph and evolve, in large part because COVID-19 has only been in existence in North America since Q1 of 2020 or arguably very late 2019. I definitely hope the disparity you mention holds true over time or widens (not meaning I want more vehicular deaths, but rather, that I want fewer & fewer COVID-19 fatalities!). However, it is far too soon to use current data regarding COVID to make extrapolations as to what the future will hold with any high degree of confidence.

But there's one more variable to look at. How much does actually wearing that mask in public reduce your odds of catching Covid in the first place? If you go by the study that TCT was touting, that number is 9.3%. That means wearing a mask doesn't 100% mitigate your odds of catching Covid and dying, but rather only mitigates those odds by 9.3%.

Very fair question. Certainly, there were some shortcomings with regard to how the research was conducted. As such, I don't place a tremendous amount of stock in that 9.3% figure...yet.

At least several dozen other mask studies have been performed in the past. The NBC affiliate in Austin, KXAN, offers hyperlinks to 49 such studies on its web site.

Many of those other studies have shown greater mask efficacy.

[TC Talks]

Is BMW suggesting that his mathiness is more credible than the CDC's research?

[Bryce]

Is BMW suggesting that his mathiness is more credible than the CDC's research?

Kindergarten finger painting is more credible than the CDC.

[bmw]

Is BMW suggesting that his mathiness is more credible than the CDC's research?

Why is it that your challenging of any specific claims I make in here is always so vague? You never, EVER have any SPECIFIC refutations of any of the specific mathematical or statistical claims that I make in here. So what is it this time? Where does my math fail? You seem to be implying that it does. Also, I don't believe I specifically challenged any of the CDC's research in my post above. I was simply pointing out how much of a waste of time it is if you're already vaccinated to go through the headache of properly handling and wearing a mask while in public when there are so many other things in your daily life that have far higher odds of killing you. You suck at risk-benefit analysis.

[bmw]

I steadfastly oppose any governmental mask mandate for folks who...have otherwise been confirmed as possessing sufficient antibodies.

Just curious - why do you think it is that in all the instances of vaccine mandates across the country both in government and in the private sector that natural immunity isn't counted as fulfilling having immunity? Why does only the vaccine count? Given the science, I genuinely don't get it. You're one of the very few people I've heard agree with me that natural immunity should count.

...I would add our road systems are much more static than dynamic and driving patterns evolve slowly over time. In other words, one knows what he or she is "getting into."

There is much more uncertainty regarding how COVID will morph and evolve, in large part because COVID-19 has only been in existence in North America since Q1 of 2020 or arguably very late 2019. I definitely hope the disparity you mention holds true over time or widens (not meaning I want more vehicular deaths, but rather, that I want fewer & fewer COVID-19 fatalities!). However, it is far too soon to use current data regarding COVID to make extrapolations as to what the future will hold with any high degree of confidence.

Perhaps, but it isn't like the mutations happen and fully spread overnight. There is a classification known as "variant of interest" whereby the CDC follows other known variants. We should have at least several months of advanced warning of any next-variant becoming a problem. Meaning, you'll have plenty of time to decide in the future if a mask once again makes sense.

At least several dozen other mask studies have been performed in the past. The NBC affiliate in Austin, KXAN, offers hyperlinks to 49 such studies on its web site.

Many of those other studies have shown greater mask efficacy.

I'll have to check those out. I have yet to see a study done under real-world conditions that shows anything more than a marginal decrease in spread. That said, now that the vaccine is out, this becomes a somewhat moot point since the primary goal in my view should be speeding along herd immunity (which includes natural immunity) as fast as reasonably can be done without overloading the hospitals. At this point, getting sick with Covid is largely a choice for most people as opposed to an unavoidable risk for most people. I think we're close, and that after this Delta wave is over and any future waves will be significantly muted in comparison.

[Matt]

Here are the rules for Michigan Stadium:

Fans will be required to wear face coverings when inside any indoor areas including restrooms, M Den stores and premium club suites.

I'd be curious to hear from anyone who attended Saturday's game if those rules were actually being enforced.

Students on campus should NOT be required to wear a mask if outdoors. Does anyone know if such a requirement exists?

It does not. Masks are only required inside of buildings despite insanely high vaccination rates 9 days after vaccination was required. There is some more freedom in dorms where close to 99% are vaccinated.

[MWmetalhead]

Just curious - why do you think it is that in all the instances of vaccine mandates across the country both in government and in the private sector that natural immunity isn't counted as fulfilling having immunity?

Verification of natural immunity requires greater due diligence.

Rightly or wrongly, I think there is also a mindset that those who tout natural immunity are unlikely to receive the vaccine once their antibody levels diminish to non-protective levels. Employers want to compel healthy behaviors from the get-go, which means getting employees into the habit of receiving the vaccine.

Some people certainly are allergic to the preservatives used in vaccines or suffer other severe side effects. Such instances are fairly rare, and exceptions need to be made for these folks.

[TC Talks]

Is BMW suggesting that his mathiness is more credible than the CDC's research?

Why is it that your challenging of any specific claims I make in here is always so vague? You never, EVER have any SPECIFIC refutations of any of the specific mathematical or statistical claims that I make in here. So what is it this time? Where does my math fail? You seem to be implying that it does. Also, I don't believe I specifically challenged any of the CDC's research in my post above. I was simply pointing out how much of a waste of time it is if you're already vaccinated to go through the headache of properly handling and wearing a mask while in public when there are so many other things in your daily life that have far higher odds of killing you. You suck at risk-benefit analysis.

I'm sorry, but looking at the macro data has convinced me that your assessment is full of shit...

U.S. cases pass 40 million as nation averages more than 150,000 infections per day

The extra-contagious delta variant has fueled an explosive new wave of infections, hospitalizations and now deaths, placing hospitals under tremendous renewed strain. Close to 650,000 people have died of covid-19 in the United States as of Tuesday, according to data tracked by The Washington Post.

Daily new cases have yet to approach a winter peak of more than 300,000, while current covid-19 hospitalizations remain below a winter record of close to 140,000. But the numbers have climbed remarkably as vaccines are widely available and proven highly effective at staving off severe cases.

Tracking coronavirus cases in the United States

Most of the country is fully vaccinated, but demand for the shots is far below a spring peak, when more than 3 million doses were given on average each day.

Tennessee leads the country in cases to date per capita, with 16,253 infections reported per 100,000 people. North Dakota and Florida rank second and third, respectively.

Washington Post

[bmw]

Dude!

YOU were the one who posted the numbers which I analyzed. You don't like the analysis, so now you want to use DIFFERENT numbers - numbers which are wholly irrelevant to my point.

And to use your own words - are YOU now challenging the credibility of the CDC's research?