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I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed May 04, 2022 10:29 am

Indeed, the past couple years, Autumn weather has been pretty nice.

November 2020 was absurdly warm in Metro Detroit. Troy and Ann Arbor had two days reach 80 degrees. I want to say another five days were 70+.

Last autumn, I was still raking leaves wearing a lightweight jacket in December.

I suppose those warm autumns make up for November 2019 when Detroit was slammed with 8 to 12 inches of heavy wet snow on Veteran's Day.

A consistent string of dry days with highs in the 60s seldom seems to occur in April or May. It's almost always either a temperature see-saw or a jolting pattern shift where we go from mostly 50s straight to 75+ temps.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by radioandtventhusiast » Wed May 04, 2022 1:10 pm

It looks like Toledo may hit 86 on Tuesday.

We had a few warm days in early November 2020. Usually temps. are fairly cool.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed May 04, 2022 1:34 pm

I certainly think mid 80s are very doable for Toledo one or more days next week.

Wouldn't completely surprise me if parts of Metro Detroit were to reach 85 degrees at least one day next week.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Mega Hertz » Sun May 08, 2022 7:24 am

Pardon me, friends. I have to go get the shorts and sleveless shirts from my bottom drawer 😁


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed May 11, 2022 7:51 pm

Wouldn't totally surprise me if one or two spots in SW Michigan briefly touched 90 today.

This has been a bizarre weather pattern these past couple days. Whereas SW Michigan has seen dew point readings in the 60s to near 70, Metro Detroit has seen an arid airmass. As I'm typing, the Birmingham and Beverly Hills area is seeing outdoor humidity readings perhaps near all time record low levels. Dew point reading is only 29 (!!!) and relative humidity is an insanely low 15 percent!

On top of all that, for a good portion of the day, storms fired near and just north of US 10, which initially, seemingly drifted from east to west. There were severe tstorm warnings being issued for hail threats as early as 9a this morning near Gladwin!

When the storms north of Grand Rapids collapsed mid afternoon, a rush of cool air passed southward, dropping the temp in GR by about 10 degrees in less than an hour this afternoon.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Wed May 11, 2022 10:03 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Wed May 11, 2022 7:51 pm
Wouldn't totally surprise me if one or two spots in SW Michigan briefly touched 90 today.

This has been a bizarre weather pattern these past couple days. Whereas SW Michigan has seen dew point readings in the 60s to near 70, Metro Detroit has seen an arid airmass. As I'm typing, the Birmingham and Beverly Hills area is seeing outdoor humidity readings perhaps near all time record low levels. Dew point reading is only 29 (!!!) and relative humidity is an insanely low 15 percent!

On top of all that, for a good portion of the day, storms fired near and just north of US 10, which initially, seemingly drifted from east to west. There were severe tstorm warnings being issued for hail threats as early as 9a this morning near Gladwin!

When the storms north of Grand Rapids collapsed mid afternoon, a rush of cool air passed southward, dropping the temp in GR by about 10 degrees in less than an hour this afternoon.
Northern Illinois hit 90 today. What disturbs me is the lack of a spring. Supposedly, it will be back next week. Truly bizarre.


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Thu May 12, 2022 6:20 pm

Made it to at least the low 90s in Traverse City today.

Downtown GR also reached 90.

In this part of May in 2021 and 2020, we had temps 25 to almost 35 degrees below normal. Two years ago, we had multiple consecutive days where Metro Detroit witnessed snow showers.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Tue Jul 26, 2022 10:18 pm

Computer models are still in disagreement because this is still a ways out, but early indications are pointing to a MASSIVE record-setting heatwave starting early next week and quickly hitting Michigan by mid-week. Some model runs show 6 consecutive days of widespread highs between 100 and 105 across the entire state of Michigan by the end of next week.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MasterB » Wed Jul 27, 2022 12:37 am

I hope Michigan doesn't hit 100 degrees for 6+ days it's ways out as you said BMW. I'll be inside in the AC I'd only go out if I was going to the pool.


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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:59 pm

They all did a great job with today's forecast!

Projected high temp was only about 10 degrees off. 😄

Let's see:
-low pressure
-northeast flow
-low, thick stratus
-moisture moving up from the south

Yup, forecasting a high temp of 79 degrees with that type of pattern in early SEPTEMBER makes sense to me!

These goofballs just accept what the computer says lock, stock and barrel.

On a related note, I'm not impressed by Bryan Schuerman's work on WDIV so far. Same mediocre accuracy as Andrew Humphrey.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Sun Sep 04, 2022 8:11 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sun Sep 04, 2022 3:59 pm
They all did a great job with today's forecast!

Projected high temp was only about 10 degrees off. 😄

Let's see:
-low pressure
-northeast flow
-low, thick stratus
-moisture moving up from the south

Yup, forecasting a high temp of 79 degrees with that type of pattern in early SEPTEMBER makes sense to me!

These goofballs just accept what the computer says lock, stock and barrel.

On a related note, I'm not impressed by Bryan Schuerman's work on WDIV so far. Same mediocre accuracy as Andrew Humphrey.
In their defense, this type of a temperature swing was not expected(not that I'm complaining) following 3 hot days. Because of how tight the isobars are due to the Omega block, it really is more tricky than ever to call a forecast.


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Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.

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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Deleted User 15835 » Sun Sep 04, 2022 11:29 pm

I get most of my weather from Toledo stations, as it's more relevant then what's going on in Detroit. Anytime the weather gets bad, they start this "First Alert Day" business, it is really annoying.

I'm hoping for an actual fall this year, it seems the last couple years it's gone from 90 to winter. Just as long as we don't get any late season tornados, I still remember the one from 2013, yikes.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by radioandtventhusiast » Mon Sep 05, 2022 12:16 pm

Riff Raff wrote:
Sun Sep 04, 2022 11:29 pm
I get most of my weather from Toledo stations, as it's more relevant then what's going on in Detroit. Anytime the weather gets bad, they start this "First Alert Day" business, it is really annoying.

I'm hoping for an actual fall this year, it seems the last couple years it's gone from 90 to winter. Just as long as we don't get any late season tornados, I still remember the one from 2013, yikes.
Yes, both WTOL and recently WTVG do the "Alert Day" for any extreme weather, and actually, they've been fairly spot on when it comes to the conditions during those days.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 05, 2022 1:43 pm

Brandon Roux of WDIV when he wrote his online forecast 5 or 6 hours ago actually forecasted "partly sunny skies by late afternoon."

While cloud ceilings are higher than yesterday and cloud thickness isn't quite as bad today as yesterday, to actually forecast "partly sunny" seems like a big gamble to me.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by CurlyHoward » Mon Sep 05, 2022 2:14 pm

Riff Raff wrote:
Sun Sep 04, 2022 11:29 pm
I get most of my weather from Toledo stations, as it's more relevant then what's going on in Detroit. Anytime the weather gets bad, they start this "First Alert Day" business, it is really annoying.

I'm hoping for an actual fall this year, it seems the last couple years it's gone from 90 to winter. Just as long as we don't get any late season tornados, I still remember the one from 2013, yikes.
Yeah, that November 2013 storm was a bad one. I was watching football at Pub 51 in Northwood when the power went out. Not far away one of the drive in screens in Oregon blew down and a Circle K station in Perrysburg was leveled.

In general, Toledo stations have overhyped the weather ever since the horrible F4 tornado of June 2010, which hit on a Saturday night so wasn't quite covered as well as it should have been. So at times it's led to wall-to-wall coverage on all channels (at least before Sinclair outsourced 24's news to South Bend) any time there's a tornado watch anywhere between downriver and Findlay, or Cedar Point and Indiana.

The "First Alert Days" for heat or cold can be overdone, yeah. But I think our stations do a pretty good job covering the weather, considering the limitations placed on them by the bean counter idiots in charge.



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