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I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
jadednihilist
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Sat Jul 24, 2021 6:26 pm

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1343.html

Looks like Metro Detroit has been added to the watch now. The CAPE is sufficient for deep convection and this tropically moist airmass should slow cooling tonight, so the SPC has enough confidence to suspect these storms could make it here before completely weakening below severe limits. The worst of the storms will still be in Mid-Michigan where it's been quite active this afternoon.


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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 6:29 pm

They are drifting to the south so slowly though. I don't disagree with the watch expansion. There is certainly a good chance parts of Livingston and Oakland will be placed under warnings at some point, although I think actual severe strength winds will be quite isolated.

New tornado warning was just issued for Swartz Creek, Mundy Twp and Bishop Airport area of Genesee County. WDIV, which normally breaks into programming for Genesee County tornado warnings (especially southern Genesee) evidently believes airing commercials is more important.



jadednihilist
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:13 pm

Those storms have meant business today. Bad things can definitely happen when you mix this kind of wind shear with a deeply tropical environment. The completely saturated troposphere over southern Michigan has a higher specific heat capacity than a typical airmass, so it will take longer for things to cool off tapering the rate that these storms decay.

I definitely believe that if you're on the northern half of Metro Detroit, you should prepare for some rough weather in the form of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes (the higher surface vorticity will travel along the outflow boundaries and cold front thats pushing these storms S/SEward). I do think these will start weakening to near or below severe thunderstorm thresholds somewhere in the vicinity of the I-94 corridor, so I do agree with including I-94 counties to the watch.


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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:31 pm

As the front edge of the storms crosses into northern Oakland County, the trend seems to be for the wind field to weaken somewhat, although the latest scan does show a very small area of reintensification NW of Clarkston. There's another decent pop near Ortonville.

The more potent storms are lined up along I-69 from west of Flint back through Lansing, Potterville and Eaton Rapids. As that energy pivots east and southeastward, it'll be interesting to see what unfolds once those cells approach and cross US-23.

I still think chances of SVR are lower for folks who happen to be located both south of M-59 and east of US-23 than elsewhere. However, the threat is definitely not zero and warrants some monitoring.

In all of the severe tstorm warnings I've seen issued today, the wind threat was described as "60 mph," so in many instances, we're talking a low end threat involving isolated downdrafts. Of course, the folks who were under tornado warnings earlier would beg to differ. :hat

NWS Pontiac does not seem all that concerned about the storms in northern Oakland so far.

Storm reports have been very spotty and geographically confined so far, mostly Saginaw, Midland, Linwood, and of course the spotted tornado at the tip of the thumb. The only storm report from Genesee came from Flushing. Still pretty early; there could be more reports forthcoming.



jadednihilist
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:39 pm

One really useful tool I like to use to assess the evolution of the strength of the updrafts is the really high resolution GOES-16 near infrared satellite imagery. The convection is higher in the atmosphere where there are colder brightness temperatures, and you can see the strong updrafts moving into Genesee and St Clair counties right now. This, and the area immediately downstream, is where the current severe weather threat remains the greatest.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined


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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:42 pm

NWS Pontiac has finally issued a severe tstorm warning for Oakland. Alexa and AAA both notified me instantly within a microsecond of each other. :)

Livingston County is also included.

The "tornado possible" verbiage that has been quite common with today's warnings is included.

The velocity data within ten miles of the radar site is so incredibly noisy; NOAA should do something about that. One of the crappier radar sites I've seen in that regard.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:57 pm

Not good - probable tornado bearing down on Armada. Tornado warning issued. Gate to gate shear is north of 100 mph.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:57 pm

Oh oh - now I think one may have just been issued for Oakland County. My phone just sounded an EAS alert for tornado warning. It didn't provide location details, though. My phone number does have a 586 area code, so perhaps that screws up my EAS alerts somehow (I live nowhere near Armada).



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:02 pm

New tornado warning just issued for central and northern Oakland County. Basically, along and north of Maple Rd.

I live about two miles south of the southern boundary of it, but I received the EAS alert nonetheless.

The radar signatures over Oakland so far are not nearly as impressive as the one near Armada.

Folks in Memphis, Richmond and New Haven need to take cover immediately!



jadednihilist
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:13 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:42 pm
NWS Pontiac has finally issued a severe tstorm warning for Oakland. Alexa and AAA both notified me instantly within a microsecond of each other. :)

Livingston County is also included.

The "tornado possible" verbiage that has been quite common with today's warnings is included.

The velocity data within ten miles of the radar site is so incredibly noisy; NOAA should do something about that. One of the crappier radar sites I've seen in that regard.
It's really hard to clean the signal so close to the radar because the beams pass so low to the ground. You often get nonhydrometeors like dust, insects, and birds that get scattered back to the radar along with the rain. However, the tradeoff is that if you see strong rotation near the radar, that rotation is almost certainly making it to the surface and that's why we have the tornado warnings. The lowering of the correlation coefficient in the vicinity of the velocity couplet also confirms that tornado debris is being observed by the radar as well. Extremely dangerous situation.


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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:16 pm

Extremely strong winds just above ground level in parts of Commerce Twp. right now. 80 mph plus.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:19 pm

Very vivid lightning in my area. I think I just saw a positively charged strike.

Some shear now popping up over Franklin and Bingham Farms.

Wind is dead calm at my house interestingly enough.

Big ball of strong winds over W. Bloomfield and north Farmington Hills now.

It would not surprise me if some wind damage occurred in Rochester Hills. Good spin in velocity mode when reviewing time lapse animation.



jadednihilist
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:39 pm

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2021/md1344.html

Heads up for anyone in southern Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, and potentially even Lenawee and Monroe counties.. as well as southwest ontario including Windsor and Essex.
The most intense band of convection continues to be the
activity moving southeastward at an erratic/25-35-kt pace across
southeastern Lower MI. In addition to damaging gusts, a couple
tornadoes appear to have occurred in the last hour, within short-
lived but intense embedded mesocyclones. This potential will
continue for another hour or two as the convection encounters a
pocket of relatively high-SRH air (effective SRH 150-350 J/kg),
based on radar imagery, VWP analysis and objective mesoanalysis
data.


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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:44 pm

Winds are looking less impressive as the line drifts south. Not really seeing anything suggestive of winds north of 50 mph now.

Peak winds at my house were about 45 mph. Torrential rainfall, though. I'm afraid some areas could see more flooding.

These storms have weakened and reintensified once or twice already. Wouldn't shock me if that occurs a third time. Only small pockets have seen damaging winds throughout this event.

Very bad damage near Armada in far northern Macomb per WXYZ. Probably a high end EF-1 or low end EF-2 tornado.



jadednihilist
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by jadednihilist » Sat Jul 24, 2021 8:51 pm

Definitely keeping an eye on the convergence of the two lines just northeast of Ann Arbor. That could also potentially produce a brief tornado in eastern Washtenaw and western Wayne county. That's also coinciding where the strongest updrafts are according to the latest satellite imagery.


I'm here for a good, hearty debate, to agree and disagree respectfully, and commiserate on the current state of terrestrial radio.

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