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I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
km1125
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by km1125 » Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:09 pm

bmw wrote:
Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:59 pm
For anybody curious, here is what I come up with after downloading 15 years of data from accuweather for my location in northern Michigan. What I was curious about was the daytime highs compared to average for the day. If the actual high for the day was exactly average or above average, I counted it as +1. If it was below average, I counted as -1.

After compiling the data for 2006-2021, here are the results:

Jan -8 (meaning 8 more days below average than at or above average)
Feb -46
Mar -30
Apr -53
May -15
June -14
July +16
Aug +12
Sep -14
Oct -5
Nov -13
Dec -6

My conclusion? February, March, and especially April have been WAY below normal over the past 15 years. That's a combined 129 more days below normal than at or above normal for just those 3 months in a 15-year period. June-Sept averaged out perfectly right to the day. Fall through early winter was slightly below average.

My question is, what is causing these lingering winters?
Perhaps it's finally coming... that Ice Age the Leonard Nimoy warned us about all those years ago....
[youtube]www.youtube.com/results?search_query=le ... oy+ice+age[/youtube]

I thought I just saw Andrew Humphrey on the air a couple days ago telling us how much warmer we are since 1970. Did I hear him wrong?



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Apr 25, 2022 4:58 pm

Over the past day or two, models have been trending milder for the first week of May. Mid 50s have been replaced with mostly low 60s (and some decent intervals of dry weather). That ain't bad! Keeping fingers crossed that actually materializes.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Apr 26, 2022 5:13 pm

I called today's weather correctly back on Friday.

As recently as yesterday morning, some of the dumbasses on TV around here were still calling for a high at or above 50 degrees today (during daylight hours). 🤣



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Apr 30, 2022 7:44 am

Now, the models are trending cooler again for next week. Low to mid 60s have now been replaced with upper 50s thanks to expectation of upper level flow mostly coming from Canada?

The good news? No May snow is in the forecast unlike each of the past two years.

Looks like my predictions in my post from April 20 have a good chance of materializing after all.

Highs in the 70s look scarce now through at least the first half of May. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s look common.



bmw
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:26 am

The long-range weather forecasting for our state this year is as bad as I've ever seen. For months now, any time you check them, the long-range computer models (GFS specifically, probably others as well) show ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES starting 2 or 3 weeks out and then continuing on for eternity. But it is ALWAYS 2 or 3 weeks out. The current week or 2 weeks are always much below normal once they actually get here. Been going on like this for some time now.

This is what the 6-week (week-by-week) outlook (deparature from average) has looked like just about any time you look at it for the past few months:

Image

AND even more laughable is the month-by-month outlook. If you look at the current maps, each and every month of July, August, September, October, November, and December, there is literally NOT A SINGLE SHADE OF BLUE ANYWHERE in the entire lower 48. And even very few smatterings of just "normal." They insist that the entire country is going to be significantly above normal for a full 6-month stretch. But you wait. When those months actually come, there will be large blue patches SOMEWHERE. Guaranteed.

I can't help but wonder if they're over-accounting for climate change in their models.



MasterB
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MasterB » Sat Apr 30, 2022 11:57 pm

I don't look at the month-by-month forecast only once a year since it's way off 3 months off along with 6 months. Why local weather only shows 6-10 days out if the map is cold or warm. ACCUWeather has the summer forecast out.


Go Pistons, Let's Go Redwings.

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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun May 01, 2022 4:42 pm

Hard copies of their summer forecast would make fine bird cage liner. :)



Mega Hertz
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Mega Hertz » Sun May 01, 2022 5:53 pm

Dude. I just want 72-77 degrees, pure sunshine, for anywhere from 48-72 hours. Dry weather. Dry ground. Shorts and a sleeveless shirt on the job site. I would suck dick for 2 warm, sunny days in a row. A shot of semen down my throat. 75. Sunny. Nice breeze. Windows down. No. Instead I live in Seattle, Siberia and England all the time.


"Internet is no more like radio than intravenous feeding is like fine dining."
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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun May 01, 2022 7:15 pm

Geez. Was it necessary to get that graphic?



Mega Hertz
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Mega Hertz » Sun May 01, 2022 9:17 pm

I suppose not. But that is where my frustration level is with this garbage.


"Internet is no more like radio than intravenous feeding is like fine dining."
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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue May 03, 2022 10:25 am

Not holding my breath, but there's a good chance you will be quite happy with next week's weather. Multiple days in the 70s and perhaps even 80s appear likely.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue May 03, 2022 10:31 am

My post of April 20th hinted at possibly 3 or fewer days with high temps of 60 or higher from April 25 through May 5.

We won't reach 60 today. As of today, only 3 days since April 25 have hit 60 degrees, and on one of those days, late morning and afternoon temps were in the 50s most areas.

We should be able to reach low 60s tomorrow.



Mega Hertz
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Mega Hertz » Tue May 03, 2022 6:40 pm

Some good news! It really is getting beyond depressing now. Try to hump a 400 pound pressure wash machine in the rain, uphill, in the mud. I need a break.


"Internet is no more like radio than intravenous feeding is like fine dining."
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bmw
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Wed May 04, 2022 9:42 am

Starting to look like all of next week is going to feel like July. Highs in the mid 70s-mid 80s, lows in the 60s, dewpoints in the 60s.

Like mother nature will be flipping a switch. And I hate that - going right from early April to early July weather while skipping the comfortable weather in-between. I'm not complaining that it will be warm, but so many springs we go through this - the cold lingers forever, then BAM, summer!



Bobbert
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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Bobbert » Wed May 04, 2022 10:01 am

bmw wrote:
Wed May 04, 2022 9:42 am
Starting to look like all of next week is going to feel like July. Highs in the mid 70s-mid 80s, lows in the 60s, dewpoints in the 60s.

Like mother nature will be flipping a switch. And I hate that - going right from early April to early July weather while skipping the comfortable weather in-between. I'm not complaining that it will be warm, but so many springs we go through this - the cold lingers forever, then BAM, summer!
I went to college in West Virginia and got to enjoy the picture perfect kind of spring that you see on calendars and TV commercials. Then about this time of year I would return to Michigan and have to get used to the cold again.

I agree about the weather pattern. It's the flip side of our beautiful, casual, gradual autumns that suddenly turn very cold around Thanksgiving.



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