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I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
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MWmetalhead
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I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:09 am

Sorry, not buying mid to upper 70s for today.

I think drizzle will hang around longer across most of the metro than the people on TV and at the NWS seem to believe.

I'm thinking low 70s for most of Metro Detroit. It'll be in the 60s until at least early afternoon.

Let's see who winds up being closest. ;)


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:27 am

GFS says you will be closer. Based on some of your posts in here, it sure seems that the TV weather forecasters often predict higher highs than what the computer models suggest.

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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by BillT » Mon Jul 12, 2021 10:59 am

Did you ever notice the weather people will never say it's going to be cold, even on the coldest days. They say it will be cool.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:22 am

Dang. Look at the hot air dome in northern Ontario!

Gotta love stationary troughs of low pressure. :) The stagnant air mass and fetch off Lake Erie and St. Clair is ruining our July weather!

Weather is much nicer in northern Michigan.


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:46 am

The next 2 weeks in southern Michigan are going to be miserable - dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s almost non-stop. Add that to below normal temps during the days (mid 70s to low 80s) and above temperatures at night (lows in the upper 60s to low 70s) and its just plain going to be "swampy" due to extremely high relative humidity levels basically until the end of the month.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Majik » Mon Jul 12, 2021 1:55 pm

bmw wrote:
Mon Jul 12, 2021 11:46 am
The next 2 weeks in southern Michigan are going to be miserable - dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s almost non-stop. Add that to below normal temps during the days (mid 70s to low 80s) and above temperatures at night (lows in the upper 60s to low 70s) and its just plain going to be "swampy" due to extremely high relative humidity levels basically until the end of the month.
Do you concur with this forecast Metalhead?



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Jul 12, 2021 5:25 pm

I'm getting a little nervous regarding today's prediction. Was feeling great about it until 30 minutes ago. Ceiling is lifting and now at my house it's a thinner cloud deck. Getting very brief glimpses of filtered sun even.

Didn't reach 70 here until about 4:00. I think Metro got there at 3:00.


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:30 am

Do you concur with this forecast Metalhead?
Not entirely.

I think daytime highs in the low to mid 80s (which is normal for this time of year), dewpoints in the 60s (also not uncommon), and morning lows in the low to mid 60s will be predominant (also normal). There'll probably be a couple days that push close to the upper 80s to 90. In other words, a pretty typical late July pattern for southern Michigan with just a touch more humidity than normal.

This Friday will be a cooler day with highs likely to top in the mid to upper 70s. Channel 7's prediction of 84 degrees for Friday is a joke.

We'll be sitting on the edge of a much more pronounced hot air dome to our northwest - the Dakotas, Montana and prairie provinces of Canada will be baking. This would suggest an elevated risk of some decent severe weather events in the western Great Lakes & upper MS valley region (better risk is in Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin). One or two of those could sneak into parts of Michigan.

Most days here will feature plenty of sun or at least partial sun starting this weekend through next week.

For yesterday, most Metro Detroit reporting stations saw highs of 73 or 74. A couple reached only 72. At least one (Detroit City) reached 75. I'll call yesterday a "draw" between myself and the TV guys, even though I was a bit closer in most locales. It reached 73 at my house.

For today, I am in agreement with the NWS forecast of 79 - 81 degrees for most of SE Michigan. I do think some areas in the northeast, closer to Pt. Huron, might only make it to 76 or 77.


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Majik » Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:54 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Tue Jul 13, 2021 7:30 am
Do you concur with this forecast Metalhead?
Not entirely.

I think daytime highs in the low to mid 80s (which is normal for this time of year), dewpoints in the 60s (also not uncommon), and morning lows in the low to mid 60s will be predominant (also normal). There'll probably be a couple days that push close to the upper 80s to 90. In other words, a pretty typical late July pattern for southern Michigan with just a touch more humidity than normal.

This Friday will be a cooler day with highs likely to top in the mid to upper 70s. Channel 7's prediction of 84 degrees for Friday is a joke.

We'll be sitting on the edge of a much more pronounced hot air dome to our northwest - the Dakotas, Montana and prairie provinces of Canada will be baking. This would suggest an elevated risk of some decent severe weather events in the western Great Lakes & upper MS valley region (better risk is in Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin). One or two of those could sneak into parts of Michigan.

Most days here will feature plenty of sun or at least partial sun starting this weekend through next week.

For yesterday, most Metro Detroit reporting stations saw highs of 73 or 74. A couple reached only 72. At least one (Detroit City) reached 75. I'll call yesterday a "draw" between myself and the TV guys, even though I was a bit closer in most locales. It reached 73 at my house.

For today, I am in agreement with the NWS forecast of 79 - 81 degrees for most of SE Michigan. I do think some areas in the northeast, closer to Pt. Huron, might only make it to 76 or 77.
Thank You. Do you do traffic too?



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:17 pm

Nah. Use Google Maps or Waze for that. :blink


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by WOHO » Tue Jul 13, 2021 1:48 pm

MWmetalhead has Joel Alexander's ride in his barn! Traffic, no problem!



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Tue Jul 13, 2021 11:05 pm

The GFS temperature anomaly maps show blue in the southern half of the lower peninsula at 2pm and red at 2am for each and every of the 7 days including and following the day I posted my prediction. That means above normal during the night and below normal during the day. Granted not by much, but we're talking roughly +5 degrees above normal at night and -5 degrees below normal during the day, give or take. They do suggest a warm-up back to normal highs a little over a week out. As to dewpoints, I don't know exactly what "average" is, but a prolonged stretch of dewpoints of 62 to 72 degrees day and night with very few breaks in that I suspect is a bit unusual.....and coupled with the cooler daytime highs, that puts the RELATIVE humidity significantly above normal.



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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by Mega Hertz » Wed Jul 14, 2021 5:13 am

This thread has been informative. I've been wondering why it's been such a shitty summer. Few days of sunshine with no rain, rain nearly every day at some point, why we are struggling to hit the 80s some days. I may be fried, but I'm having a hard time remembering the last time we had a summer this shitty. I haven't had solid dry ground for work since at LEAST late May.


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:40 am

Over the next 7 to 10 days, I don't think we'll see many days with dew points north of 70. There'll probably be a couple such days.

No heat waves in sight (in Michigan, that would be 3+ days of 90 degrees or higher) over the next 3 weeks. Of course, model accuracy isn't particularly good more than five days out, but for macro predictions such as this one, I trust them a little bit more.

Most days over the next 7 to 10 in SE Michigan should be within a few degrees of normal from a high temp standpoint. This coming Friday will probably be coolest, although I will say Saturday is a really tricky forecast at this point.


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Re: I disagree with our weather forecasters on TV

Post by bmw » Wed Jul 14, 2021 9:38 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:40 am
This Friday will be a cooler day with highs likely to top in the mid to upper 70s. Channel 7's prediction of 84 degrees for Friday is a joke.
Try low to mid 60s.

Image

Saturday not looking much warmer.

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