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Surprise!

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
BKRPDM
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Surprise!

Post by BKRPDM » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:41 pm

I’m surprised that the weather overachieved so much with this storm, as the local folks have been otherwise very accurate the last several weeks with predictions of rain/wind/etc. events, even as much as a week or more ahead of each event.

Also - I think this is more of a “Winter Storm Warning” event, instead of a “Winter Weather Advisory,” don’t you think?



F-Squared
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Re: Surprise!

Post by F-Squared » Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:48 pm

Definitely. Many local schools were also dismissed early because they didn't expect it either.

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fuzzpower
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Re: Surprise!

Post by fuzzpower » Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:16 pm

BKRPDM wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 4:41 pm
I’m surprised that the weather overachieved so much with this storm, as the local folks have been otherwise very accurate the last several weeks with predictions of rain/wind/etc. events, even as much as a week or more ahead of each event.

Also - I think this is more of a “Winter Storm Warning” event, instead of a “Winter Weather Advisory,” don’t you think?
It’s just snow, and not what I would consider a major amount, especially considering this is Michigan. Warnings are issued so often these days they lose meaning.



Deleted User 7769

Re: Surprise!

Post by Deleted User 7769 » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:27 pm

fuzzpower wrote:
Mon Nov 11, 2019 5:16 pm
[quote=BKRPDM post_id=587573 time=<a href="tel:1573508494">1573508494</a> user_id=8067]
I’m surprised that the weather overachieved so much with this storm, as the local folks have been otherwise very accurate the last several weeks with predictions of rain/wind/etc. events, even as much as a week or more ahead of each event.

Also - I think this is more of a “Winter Storm Warning” event, instead of a “Winter Weather Advisory,” don’t you think?
It’s just snow, and not what I would consider a major amount, especially considering this is Michigan. Warnings are issued so often these days they lose meaning.
[/quote]

Um. Excuse me. In terms of preparedness, 6-9 inches is a major weather event. You obviously didn’t get caught on the roads this afternoon like so many of us did. It was unnecessary and, quite frankly, unsafe. Especially for younger and older drivers. Local meteorologists failed once again.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Surprise!

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Nov 11, 2019 6:58 pm

It’s just snow, and not what I would consider a major amount, especially considering this is Michigan. Warnings are issued so often these days they lose meaning.
Weather records in Detroit date back to the late 1870s, I believe.

There have only been three other times prior to today that Detroit has recorded a half foot of snow or more within a single day in November.

In many years, a general 6 to 10 inch snowfall would qualify as the largest or one of the largest storms of the entire winter. Usually, that would trigger scores of school & event cancellations.

So, I have to agree with radiodoc here. Several computer models even 36 hours ago were showing a general 6 to 7 inch snowfall for much of Metro Detroit, and most if not all of the local meteorologists (including the NWS) discounted that and predicted a general "4 to 6" or "3 to 6" accumulation instead.

Much of Livingston, Washtenaw, Oakland and Macomb Counties will wind up with at least 8 inches of snow from this event.

Good resource for snowfall totals:
https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=dtx

Six inches within 12 hours or eight inches within 24 hours meets Winter Storm Warning criteria. Had the totals been properly forecast by the National Weather Service, multiple additional counties in SE Michigan would've been placed under a Winter Storm Warning. Frankly, I was surprised that didn't occur when the NWS issued its scheduled late morning forecast update.

This storm has *some* similarity to the Christmas Day 2017 storm. In both cases, totals were underforecast. In both cases, frontogenesis led to increased totals in Detroit's northern suburbs. In both cases, a brutal polar air mass moved in (or will move in) behind the storm system. However, the Christmas Day 2017 storm had much more wind associated with it, temperatures were probably a good 5 to 9 degrees colder, and snow plow crews were not fully staffed, which made driving a total nightmare from Metro Detroit all the way to Grand Rapids. Also, because winds were more westerly or northwesterly, the lake effect component on the west side of the state was much worse.


Caroline Beasley is ruining WRIF. What a bitch!!!

fuzzpower
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Re: Surprise!

Post by fuzzpower » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:51 pm

Yes, I was driving earlier. I took it slow and used caution and ended up fine. This is Michigan, snow is normal from November-April.

Schools close for two inches these days, so I don’t take that reason to issue a warning.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Surprise!

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:54 pm

This much snow is not even remotely normal for Metro Detroit this early in the season.

I think a lot of people were caught off guard.


Caroline Beasley is ruining WRIF. What a bitch!!!

fuzzpower
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Re: Surprise!

Post by fuzzpower » Mon Nov 11, 2019 8:59 pm

It’s still snow. It shouldn’t matter what month it falls, people should know how to deal with it and drive. This isn’t Miami or Houston, where snowfall is extremely rare.

People rushing out to buy large amounts of food is also ridiculous.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Surprise!

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:20 pm

I'll certainly agree with you on that last point. :)

Temps were only a couple degrees below freezing, the ground was still relatively warm, and wind was nearly calm much of the day. All of those factors helped the driving situation.

If this were a wind driven snow, the roads would've been a total calamity.

The wind chills and sharp drop off in temperatures tomorrow and Wednesday will be an equally big if not bigger weather story.


Caroline Beasley is ruining WRIF. What a bitch!!!

szmigiel
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Re: Surprise!

Post by szmigiel » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:42 am

Wait there was news reports of people rushing out to buy large amounts of food?
What station or network was running those stories?
I must have missed them because I was stuck in traffic or trying to clear 8" of snow from my driveway. Anytime it is over 6" and I have to break out the snowblower to clear my driveway I consider it more then just a little snow.



Deleted User 7769

Re: Surprise!

Post by Deleted User 7769 » Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:58 am

A foot of snow on the ground at my house. No less. Significant snow fall. Winter storm levels. Major weather failure on all stations.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Surprise!

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:36 am

Metro Airport set the all time daily snowfall record in the month of November yesterday.

9.2 inches fell there altogether, with 8.5 inches occurring yesterday. That means yesterday was snowier than about 4300 other November days on record.


Caroline Beasley is ruining WRIF. What a bitch!!!

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craig11152
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Re: Surprise!

Post by craig11152 » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:27 am

I started driving a school bus this fall. Normally I would roll out of the middle school at 3:14 and drop my last students at about 4:04 Pm
Yesterday we didn't leave the school till 3:33 because buses were late getting there. I dropped my last kids at 5:17 PM.


I no longer directly engage trolls

kc8yqq
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Re: Surprise!

Post by kc8yqq » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:47 am

It took me 5 hours to get home yesterday after work. I went from Dearborn to Lafontaine Subaru and dropped off my car there. After leaving the dealer in a loaner, I was almost seriously injured or killed by a pickup 25-30 mph from SB M-5 to WB Maple. The vehicle was out of control from being in a hurry to turn right on red without regard to slow/stopped traffic.

About an hour later, my brother called and told me my aunt, her son, and wife were instantly killed in an accident. It happened on M-79 near Lacy Lake Road in Eaton County.

Yesterday was not a good day.



jsf
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Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Surprise!

Post by jsf » Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:55 am

Many cities can't plow their roads because they still have giant piles of leaves on the curbs of the streets, not usual timing for this big of a storm. I picked up my new car about noon and had to drive home in that mess, Life in Michigan.



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