Thu. night - Saturday storm system

[Marcus]

Main Observations:

1. Totol snowfall was only a major issue in some locations East of the Great Lakes such Buffalo, NY and the counties north of London, Ontario. Go up to Nothern Michigan, Central Ontario, and Lake Superior and they have seen these conditions so many times before that they are probably wondering why there the term "Winter Storm Warning" was even used up that way.

2. The size and the barometric pressure drop from this storm was major if you track the scientific side of storms.

3. A smaller storm with persistant freezing rain hitting the roads for hours can be more deadly and cause more property damage.

4. Check the windchill values. They are brutal for this part of the continent, and will be felt down south. I'd say that would be the biggest threat from this system for most of our region.

[TC Talks]

We were under a Blizzard Warning and it was a bit over stated, but I also saw that we in Traverse City were supposed to be in the eye.

What we got (and 9" more is coming) wasn't extraordinary.

Rain is in the forecast for Friday and that is disappointing.

[Circle Seven]

... The worst is the winds blowing through my leaky bedroom window and our heating costs.

I will say this storm is causing cold air to come from around the wall plugs that are on outside walls.
Looks like a trip to a hardware store sometime next week to get a pack of wall plug insulators. Never noticed drafts coming from those wall plugs before.

[Matt]

He lowered those totals well before the snowfall started. Fox 2 on Wednesday was forecasting 3 to 6. By yesterday's early evening newscasts, I believe that was further reduced to 2 to 4 inches.

Fox 2 did a far better job forecasting totals than Loco 4 and AccuWeather.

The roads do look bad. The footage I've seen from Telegraph and also from Van Dyke doesn't look pretty.

In Ann Arbor, I think there might be an inch.

[Honeyman]

In Ann Arbor, I think there might be an inch.

Matt discussing his love life.

[craig11152]

Main Observations:
4. Check the windchill values. They are brutal for this part of the continent, and will be felt down south. I'd say that would be the biggest threat from this system for most of our region.

The media is way too obsessed with windchill in my opinion.

1. Most people aren't in the full wind when they are outside. It gets broken up by buildings, terrain, trees etc.
2. in most cases you can get out of the wind.
3. you can dress for the cold AND the wind.
4. Windchill is pretty much about what the cold feels like to bare skin.

I am fond of pointing out that in Fairbanks Alaska kids go outside for recess until temps hit -20F. Thats an actual negative 20 not a windchill negative 20

[craig11152]

In Ann Arbor, I think there might be an inch.

Agreed. I can walk around in my yard in low cut shoes and not get snow over the toes let alone in my shoes.

[MWmetalhead]

Buffalo had wind gusts in the 60 mph to 70 mph range for multiple consecutive hours on Friday along with very heavy falling snow in portions of the metro. They - by far - saw the worst of this storm.

Far northern Ohio east of Toledo, especially in the Sandusky and Cleveland areas, had very nasty weather. A multiple fatality accident and massive pileup occurred on the Turnpike between Sandusky and Norwalk.

https://www.woodtv.com/news/national/up ... -confirms/

Parts of the Grand Rapids area are closing in on ten inches of snow, and it is still snowing hard under some lake effect bands in portions of Ottawa, Kent, Allegan and Van Buren counties.

We were very fortunate here in SE Michigan. We're shielded from heavy lake effect snows here, and the combination of the Low ejecting more quickly than forecast plus warm air at the surface for many hours Thursday greatly suppressed snowfall amounts here.

The potentially damaging wind gusts also faded sooner than forecast. Instead of those winds sticking around until early Friday evening, at least in my neck of the woods, the 50+ mph gusts were out of here shortly after Noon (gusts to 40 still occurred through the balance of the day). The worst of the wind here occurred a few hours either side of dawn Friday morning.

As of last evening, I had about an inch of crunchy snow on the ground in the grass. When the rain turned to snow around Midnight Thursday night, I suspect the first hour or so of snow largely melted on contact.

[MWmetalhead]

The media is way too obsessed with windchill in my opinion.

1. Most people aren't in the full wind when they are outside. It gets broken up by buildings, terrain, trees etc.
2. in most cases you can get out of the wind.
3. you can dress for the cold AND the wind.
4. Windchill is pretty much about what the cold feels like to bare skin.

I disagree. The wind chill forecast is very important so that people KNOW to dress appropriately, and more importantly, so that they dress their kids appropriately.

I realize many schools were out of session this week, but many students do walk to school.

It gets broken up by buildings, terrain, trees etc.

In some cases, those features make the wind worse. Ever walk in downtown Detroit or Chicago on a windy day? Rows of sky scrapers can & do create a wind tunnel effect.

[craig11152]

I am not saying they should ignore it. I am saying they are overly obsessed with it AND its an opinion I stand by. It should be enough to say its going to be very windy and cold so dress for it.

[audiophile]

Buffalo had wind gusts in the 60 mph to 70 mph range for multiple consecutive hours on Friday along with very heavy falling snow in portions of the metro. They - by far - saw the worst of this storm.

Far northern Ohio east of Toledo, especially in the Sandusky and Cleveland areas, had very nasty weather. A multiple fatality accident and massive pileup occurred on the Turnpike between Sandusky and Norwalk.

https://www.woodtv.com/news/national/up ... -confirms/

Parts of the Grand Rapids area are closing in on ten inches of snow, and it is still snowing hard under some lake effect bands in portions of Ottawa, Kent, Allegan and Van Buren counties.

We were very fortunate here in SE Michigan. We're shielded from heavy lake effect snows here, and the combination of the Low ejecting more quickly than forecast plus warm air at the surface for many hours Thursday greatly suppressed snowfall amounts here.

The potentially damaging wind gusts also faded sooner than forecast. Instead of those winds sticking around until early Friday evening, at least in my neck of the woods, the 50+ mph gusts were out of here shortly after Noon (gusts to 40 still occurred through the balance of the day). The worst of the wind here occurred a few hours either side of dawn Friday morning.

As of last evening, I had about an inch of crunchy snow on the ground in the grass. When the rain turned to snow around Midnight Thursday night, I suspect the first hour or so of snow largely melted on contact.

Alba MI got 26 inches and it's still snowing.

[audiophile]

In fairness to the so-called experts, forecasting a storm like this, particularly in the state of Michigan which has more variables than anywhere else in the country, is not an exact science.

That said, here's my problem. Most model runs from any weather forecasting computer are updated every 6 hours. And if you take the past 5 or 6 runs from any model, you can find one run from one model that shows a super high snow total in a specific location. What the forecasters seem to do is take the highest totals they can find for any particular region from any particular model run and combine them all into one single forecast map. And they're very slow to react to consistent shifts in storm tracks that come with each subsequent model run. And as I noted earlier, they all seem to underestimate the effect the lakes have on temperatures and the effect that has on precipitation type, at least close to the lakes.

And what is undoubtedly upsetting to some people is that they ended up unnecessarily canceling holiday travel plans.

I have to give kudos to the NWS automated forecast generator... it consistently called for an inch or two TOTAL down here in western Wayne county. I can still see the grass at this time.

NWS is not automated; humans do check and tweak forecasts.

[TC Talks]

Gaylord (East of Alba).

Still coming down in TC

https://www.9and10news.com/weather/live ... -city-cam/

[Rate This]

In fairness to the so-called experts, forecasting a storm like this, particularly in the state of Michigan which has more variables than anywhere else in the country, is not an exact science.

That said, here's my problem. Most model runs from any weather forecasting computer are updated every 6 hours. And if you take the past 5 or 6 runs from any model, you can find one run from one model that shows a super high snow total in a specific location. What the forecasters seem to do is take the highest totals they can find for any particular region from any particular model run and combine them all into one single forecast map. And they're very slow to react to consistent shifts in storm tracks that come with each subsequent model run. And as I noted earlier, they all seem to underestimate the effect the lakes have on temperatures and the effect that has on precipitation type, at least close to the lakes.

And what is undoubtedly upsetting to some people is that they ended up unnecessarily canceling holiday travel plans.

I have to give kudos to the NWS automated forecast generator... it consistently called for an inch or two TOTAL down here in western Wayne county. I can still see the grass at this time.

NWS is not automated; humans do check and tweak forecasts.

When you go on the forecast office website and type in your zip code the forecast you get specifically for that location comes from an algorithm. For my location it always called for less than everyone else. A human could not manually input data for thousands of locations every 5 hours.

[MWmetalhead]

It should be enough to say its going to be very windy and cold so dress for it.

Frost bite to exposed skin sets in more quickly as the wind chill plummets. Hypothermia also can occur more quickly.

Different people have different views of what they consider to be "cold."

Some outdoor activities are cancelled once the wind chill reaches a certain reading.