Granted, the track wasn't perfect and the earliest runs had it bringing more warm air up and being a mostly rain event here, but here is the run from 6 days ago:
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Major snowstorm brewing
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
The GFS picked up on this storm nearly a full 10 days out and hasn't wavered from it since, which is quite impressive. If you browse backwards through older runs, it has been there going all the way back to Jan 24. My observation of the GFS is that it usually becomes completely useless beyond Day 8 - this may be the furthest out I've ever seen the GFS accurately predict a storm and stick with that prediction throughout.
Granted, the track wasn't perfect and the earliest runs had it bringing more warm air up and being a mostly rain event here, but here is the run from 6 days ago:
Granted, the track wasn't perfect and the earliest runs had it bringing more warm air up and being a mostly rain event here, but here is the run from 6 days ago:
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
Well… there’s a 13… so that’s two models reaching the conclusion of a foot. I have to drive the bus from Detroit to Lansing and back via Flint Wednesday afternoon into the evening… I am not looking forward to it. By Wednesday night the roads could be near impassable.
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MotorCityRadioFreak
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Re: Major snowstorm brewing
The most dangerous piece per the video I shared is that Kentucky, southern, Ohio, and parts of PA and West Virginia may get as much as 2 inches of sleet and one inch of ice. I still say Missouri won't get that much snow. Again, NOT saying this storm is a dud, but these models saying 30 inches for Michigan and a foot plus for Missouri are exaggerated.
They/them, non-binary and proud.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
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MotorCityRadioFreak
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- Location: Warren, MI
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
This snow would be over a 48 hour period through Thursday night. I would expect delays, but nothing impassable.Rate This wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:20 amWell… there’s a 13… so that’s two models reaching the conclusion of a foot. I have to drive the bus from Detroit to Lansing and back via Flint Wednesday afternoon into the evening… I am not looking forward to it. By Wednesday night the roads could be near impassable.
They/them, non-binary and proud.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
The Winter storm watch runs from 7am Wednesday till 11pm Thursday. While that is a slow-ish buildup at some point the plows can’t keep up and with temperatures falling below 20 at some point the salt won’t work nearly as well either. It all sounds like shoveling to me.MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:57 amThis snow would be over a 48 hour period through Thursday night. I would expect delays, but nothing impassable.Rate This wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:20 amWell… there’s a 13… so that’s two models reaching the conclusion of a foot. I have to drive the bus from Detroit to Lansing and back via Flint Wednesday afternoon into the evening… I am not looking forward to it. By Wednesday night the roads could be near impassable.
Last edited by Rate This on Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MWmetalhead
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Re: Major snowstorm brewing
The models are congealing regarding duration and impacts. Biggest question marks regarding heavy versus non-heavy snow are in the Lansing, Flint and Howell areas, where 25 miles could represent the difference between a few inches versus eight or ten inches.
Confidence is now rather high this will be a pretty historic storm for places like Fort Wayne, Toledo and perhaps Detroit.
Weather Channel is forecast 12 to 18 inches for much of Metro Detroit and up along the waterfront into St. Clair county, 8 to 12 inches in a band from roughly Howell to Grand Blanc, and a staggering 18 to 24 inches from Toledo to Fort Wayne.
National Weather Service is calling for a general 8 to 14 inches from I-69 southward through Thursday evening.
WDIV is forecasting 6 to 9 inches Wednesday and 6 to 12 inches Thursday for Metro Detroit.
My projections for storm totals through Thursday night:
Lansing and Flint areas: 4 to 10 inches (high uncertainty).
Pontiac, Romeo, Brighton: 6 to 12 inches.
Ann Arbor and 696 corridor: 8 to 14 inches.
Downtown Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Metro Airport: 10 to 16 inches.
Lenawee, Monroe, Greater Toledo: 12 to 18 inches.
Pray the track is farther south (sorry Ohio)! Conversely, if it tracks 50 miles farther north than current forecast, Metro Detroit will be really screwed.
Confidence is now rather high this will be a pretty historic storm for places like Fort Wayne, Toledo and perhaps Detroit.
Weather Channel is forecast 12 to 18 inches for much of Metro Detroit and up along the waterfront into St. Clair county, 8 to 12 inches in a band from roughly Howell to Grand Blanc, and a staggering 18 to 24 inches from Toledo to Fort Wayne.
National Weather Service is calling for a general 8 to 14 inches from I-69 southward through Thursday evening.
WDIV is forecasting 6 to 9 inches Wednesday and 6 to 12 inches Thursday for Metro Detroit.
My projections for storm totals through Thursday night:
Lansing and Flint areas: 4 to 10 inches (high uncertainty).
Pontiac, Romeo, Brighton: 6 to 12 inches.
Ann Arbor and 696 corridor: 8 to 14 inches.
Downtown Detroit, Grosse Pointes, Metro Airport: 10 to 16 inches.
Lenawee, Monroe, Greater Toledo: 12 to 18 inches.
Pray the track is farther south (sorry Ohio)! Conversely, if it tracks 50 miles farther north than current forecast, Metro Detroit will be really screwed.
Morgan Wallen is a piece of garbage.
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
If we did the 12 to 21 it would be very difficult getting around and digging out just to get around for that matter. If it’s gonna be historic let’s go for the 24” stuff. First inkling of the snow totals on the NWS auto-generated forecast from a 12 hours at a time perspective on their site shows 4 inches during the day Wednesday. It’ll be interesting to see if we are to get 6 Wednesday night and another 4 on Friday or how exactly it totals it out.MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 6:34 amThe models are congealing regarding duration and impacts. Biggest question marks regarding heavy versus non-heavy snow are in the Lansing, Flint and Howell areas, where 25 miles could represent the difference between a few inches versus eight or ten inches.
Confidence is now rather high this will be a pretty historic storm for places like Fort Wayne, Toledo and perhaps Detroit.
Weather Channel is forecast 12 to 18 inches for much of Metro Detroit and up along the waterfront into St. Clair county, 8 to 12 inches in a band from roughly Howell to Grand Blanc, and a staggering 18 to 24 inches from Toledo to Fort Wayne.
National Weather Service is calling for a general 8 to 14 inches from I-69 southward through Thursday evening.
WDIV is forecasting 6 to 9 inches Wednesday and 6 to 12 inches Thursday for Metro Detroit.
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MWmetalhead
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Re: Major snowstorm brewing
AccuWeather is forecasting a widespread 12 to 18 inches for Metro Detroit, Ann Arbor and Toledo.
Morgan Wallen is a piece of garbage.
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MotorCityRadioFreak
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Re: Major snowstorm brewing
NWS is saying 4-5" up in the Thumb, 9-10" in Flint, 10-12" from 696 to I-69 in Metro Detroit, and 12-15" from Detroit to the Ohio border. That seems most likely.
Do we really want a crippling storm with high winds and zero degrees behind it? That shit is how people die.
Do we really want a crippling storm with high winds and zero degrees behind it? That shit is how people die.
They/them, non-binary and proud.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
-
MWmetalhead
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- Posts: 12347
- Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
At least right now, winds don't look bad with the storm itself.
Roof collapses could be an issue for poorly constructed structures where snow removal is not undertaken.
Roof collapses could be an issue for poorly constructed structures where snow removal is not undertaken.
Morgan Wallen is a piece of garbage.
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MotorCityRadioFreak
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- Location: Warren, MI
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
I guess I am very happy that we got new roofs put in over here in 2020.
I meant that people die from power outages and such. Being trapped with the power out is one of my worst fears.
I meant that people die from power outages and such. Being trapped with the power out is one of my worst fears.
They/them, non-binary and proud.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
-
MotorCityRadioFreak
- Posts: 6575
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:26 am
- Location: Warren, MI
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
Sidenote: This thread definitely reminds me of the old death storm thread back in the day.
They/them, non-binary and proud.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
You NEVER have to apologize to Ohio.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
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audiophile
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Re: Major snowstorm brewing
How would this be different than the last two years for you?MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:00 amI guess I am very happy that we got new roofs put in over here in 2020.
I meant that people die from power outages and such. Being trapped with the power out is one of my worst fears.
Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!
Re: Major snowstorm brewing
In your attempt to dunk on MCRF, you must have missed the part about being actually trapped without power.audiophile wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:46 amHow would this be different than the last two years for you?MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 7:00 amI guess I am very happy that we got new roofs put in over here in 2020.
I meant that people die from power outages and such. Being trapped with the power out is one of my worst fears.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.