Major snowstorm brewing

[MWmetalhead]

Wednesday through Thursday night mostly.

My very early forecast range for SE Michigan is 6 to 10 inches, with highest totals likely to occur in Lenawee, Monroe, and southern and eastern Wayne Counties. Totals should be much less toward central lower Michigan.

Confidence that DTW will see at least 6 inches is medium-high. Confidence it will see at least ten inches is low. Confidence it will see 3 inches or less is low.

A lot can still change. A period of icy precip is possible, too.

If the models continue to paint very heavy snow along the I-94 and I-80 corridors, I will raise my prediction by Monday evening.

[whitebalance]

It's too early to predict anything. This sounds like Mlive weather hype.

[audiophile]

To early to say:

[MWmetalhead]

I agree that MLive is often guilty of weather hype, but as of yet, I've seen no articles regarding the projected winter storm.

All we're doing here is discussing raw model data, explaining risks in relying on that data so soon (Audiophile's post did a marvelous job summarizing the pitfalls), and at least in my case - taking a wild, very early guess at totals.

[Mega Hertz]

Just...please keep the snow away from Livingston, Oakland and westernmost Wayne county. The better my driving conditions for work, the better. And I would like for the kids to make it to school. Keep that shit in Ohio.

[TC Talks]

Since when is a weather incident like this a major problem?

[MWmetalhead]

AccuWeather is forecasting 8 to 12 inches for Southfield, Detroit and Toledo, and 6 to 10 inches for Ann Arbor. Only 2 to 4 inches for Flint. The mid-afternoon update is the first forecast where they've indicated specific totals for the upcoming storm.

A 75 mile shift in storm track could cause a major difference in accumulations.

[Marcus]

Below are some Port Huron and S.W. Ontario links. This looks like it's going to be a massive storm. It's just too soon to tell who is going to get a direct hit from the worst of it at this point.

https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/u ... .97,-82.45

https://weather.com/en-CA/weather/tenda ... 97ad8da4d7

https://www.bbc.com/weather/5006233

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-147_metric_e.html

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-94_metric_e.html

https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/on-137_metric_e.html

[thatonedude]

Note that I said that I don't buy those totals for Missouri. The Tuesday forecast calls for highs in the 50s for both St. Louis and Kansas City.

For Michigan, I can easily see 12-15 inches of snow this time of year. It will get up to 41 the day before the storm, but that won't heat the ground up to withstand 48 hours of snow. Until I see the NAM, GFS, or European models showing over a foot Monday, I won't be too worried. The biggest concern I would have is losing power like I did in March 2017.

No worries MCRF. Definitely look at Pivotal sometime if you want to dive in a bit deeper with the models. Only place that has free ECMWF output of all parameters, not just certain ones (to my knowledge). Plus, it's more user friendly than Tropical Tidbits IMO.

[Matt]

I'm expecting it to be a dud - less than 2 inches in Ann Arbor.

[MWmetalhead]

I sure hope you're right; I hate the snow.

[Matt]

I like snow, but I'd rather have it up north.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

This guy predicted the Iowa, Minnesota, and Kentucky tornadoes. Looks like this winter storm is going to be the real deal. Look how sharply these troughs are digging.

Heavy snow into Indiana, Illinois, northern Ohio, and Michigan. Sleet and ice into the country’s midsection, and H*** temperature dips behind the front for the Plains all the way done to Texas. Severe weather ahead of the front for the Southeast.

https://youtu.be/1bAsuIdwasw

[Rate This]

AccuWeather is forecasting 8 to 12 inches for Southfield, Detroit and Toledo, and 6 to 10 inches for Ann Arbor. Only 2 to 4 inches for Flint. The mid-afternoon update is the first forecast where they've indicated specific totals for the upcoming storm.

A 75 mile shift in storm track could cause a major difference in accumulations.

The GFS is spitting out 12 now around Detroit and 24-28 from a line maybe Ft. Wayne to Just barely south of Toledo. So a 75 mile track to the north would be a catastrophic storm for southeast Michigan. Somebody is gonna get a couple feet of snow it looks like. That revised model upped our totals 3 inches and moved that crazy snow amount north from Cincinnati to just south of us. This is fluid to say the least.

[bmw]

Here's another run - this one from the ICON model: