Major snowstorm brewing

[MasterB]

I hope the GFS is right that it will be just plain snow than an ice storm or plain rain. I don't want to lose power on Wed praying it is a snow//rain event.

[TC Talks]

How are the models? Flying to Phoenix Thursday

[bmw]

That depends where you're flying out of and what time of day. From the southern 1/3 of the lower peninsula all the way to Phoenix look fine by midday. North of that or earlier than that and you could be delayed.

[MWmetalhead]

Thursday is going to be a nasty day probably for the northern half of lower Michigan. Bands of wet snow, with some sleet mixed in, appear likely. It will also be very windy.

Metro Detroit could enter into an occluded warm sector for a few hours Thursday afternoon and may actually see some sunny breaks, mostly south of M-59. It will be very windy as well.

In terms of ice potential, the prognosis has improved. More snow appears likely at the onset of precip along and north of I-94 in southern MI, and it appears most of the heaviest moisture will have transported north before the switchover to freezing rain occurs. So, for Metro Detroit, it appears icing should be no higher than 0.25 of an inch.

South of I-94, this should be mostly a liquid rain event.

[TC Talks]

So flying from GR driving down from TC at about 3p on Thursday?

[MWmetalhead]

The temp in GR shouldn't be an issue Thursday afternoon. Should be near 40 degrees. The wind could be an issue for air traffic, though.

Roads from about Big Rapids north could be crappy.

[TC Talks]

The roads from TC to Cadillac are always crap. 131 is well maintained, this isn't Detroit

[BKRPDM]

Prediction of weather happenings in general seem scarily accurate sometimes these days. AccuWeather was predicting a mess (for 2/22, 2/23) like the one scheduled for tomorrow way back in late January…

[bmw]

There's now officially an ice storm warning. Potential for up to 1/2 inch of ice accumulation.

[MWmetalhead]

Yup. The models in the daytime run shifted again, reducing snow totals and increasing ice totals for the M-59 corridor. Areas outstate along I-94 are now looking more favorable for significant icing, too.

Hopefully mother nature has something different in store and we all wind up seeing something less harsh.

This is a very dynamic system that is inherently difficult to forecast. The second low is forecast to track very close to Detroit, which hopefully will limit precip totals in SE Michigan. A nasty, heavy wet snow should fall in places such as Ludington, Cadillac and Houghton Lake.

The NWS notes upper level dynamics may support a few lightning strikes in SE MI tomorrow evening! I can remember only one instance when freezing rain and sleet were accompanied by lightning in my lifetime, so that would be quite the event if it actually happens.

[blizzard]

https://youtu.be/sopB28jnkD4

[MasterB]

WWMT has a high of 36 degrees for tomorrow Keith Thompson even said it's very difficult to forecast what is going to happen I do see pink I also see plain rain from the models in the afternoon. WXMI Fox17 has Kazoo high of 33 degrees NWS has 32 degrees with a low of 31 degrees for tomorrow I think NWS has Kazoo with quarter of an inch of ice for the afternoon & evening with 0.1 of ice in the text for Wed. I also looked at BC, Allegan, & GR as well which for Allegan they have 0.2 of ice for the afternoon & evening close to half an inch of ice, GR had 0.1 inch of ice for the afternoon and 0.2 of ice for the evening.

The Weather Channel going a bit too high with 0.75 of ice calling it crippling they didn't put a total for ice on local on the 8s Kazoo they said a high of 33 degrees with all freezing rain in the afternoon and light freezing rain for the evening with a low of 29 degrees hour by hour has 32 degrees in the early morning and 1PM the rest is 31 degrees ICEY. ACCUWeather has a high of 35 degrees for Kazoo and a low of 29 degrees seeing radar looks like rain in the late afternoon and when it leaves the area when I looked at it on ACCUWeather Network.

In closing, I hope that WWMT & ACCUWeather will be the ones right that it will be above freezing and not a lot of ice mixes in with rain and sleet.

[MWmetalhead]

TWC probably does have the most pessimistic of the forecasts I've seen, and they also show the heaviest concentration of ice a bit farther south than the other folks.

The in-house model at WXYZ in Detroit shows a very similar prognosis.

Biggest change to the forecast since last night is moderate to perhaps heavy precip will start several hours sooner than previously expected. Instead of the nasty weather beginning mid to late afternoon, it will now begin by mid morning along and south of I-94. The weather is already awful along I-80. Lots of lightning showing up across central Indiana near the ice / liquid line.

It would not surprise me at all to see several border counties plus Wayne added to the ice storm warning later this morning.

[TC Talks]

Minneapolis has gone blizzard warned. Our region typically gets some of their weather. Lake Michigan will warm up things quite a bit so it might not be as much but we will get a little Lake effect.

[MWmetalhead]

Precip at my house is beginning as light sleet (SE Oakland County). Air temp is 31. I already see some minor accumulation in valleys of some roofs down the street.