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Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

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craig11152
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by craig11152 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:57 am

I think he bet to lose. I think he was ready to go home. His last bet was out of character and wasn't enough to potentially pass a winning answer.
He was either hoping she would get a wrong answer or wanted to lose.

To put it another way she bet to win and he didn't bet to win.


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moldyoldie
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by moldyoldie » Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:58 am

craig11152 wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:57 am
I think he bet to lose. I think he was ready to go home. His last bet was out of character and wasn't enough to potentially pass a winning answer.
He was either hoping she would get a wrong answer or wanted to lose.

To put it another way she bet to win and he didn't bet to win.
I was thinking much the same, but it's too easy to project one's own feelings onto another. A big difference in this game is he wasn't leading in a runaway going into Final as was usual. He also lost out on hitting the Daily Doubles, an important part of his modus operandi. I'm wondering if his modest wager in Final wasn't predicated on his "unusual" predicament.
As was mentioned, his wager in Final was probably a smart and logical one...for ordinary mortals. :razz :hat


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craig11152
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by craig11152 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:34 am

moldyoldie wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:58 am

As was mentioned, his wager in Final was probably a smart and logical one...for ordinary mortals. :razz :hat
I disagree. Second place gets $2000 and 3rd place gets $1000. You don't keep what you had on the board if you don't win.
Why would he settle for for that small payout rather than go for broke. If he bets big he can hope she either misses the answer OR she miscalculates what she should bet to cover. To me you take that gamble. He made a ton of money and that last $2000 was chump change.


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moldyoldie
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by moldyoldie » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:36 am

craig11152 wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 10:34 am
moldyoldie wrote:
Tue Jun 04, 2019 9:58 am

As was mentioned, his wager in Final was probably a smart and logical one...for ordinary mortals. :razz :hat
I disagree. Second place gets $2000 and 3rd place gets $1000. You don't keep what you had on the board if you don't win.
Why would he settle for for that small payout rather than go for broke. If he bets big he can hope she either misses the answer OR she miscalculates what she should bet to cover. To me you take that gamble. He made a ton of money and that last $2000 was chump change.
That's why I wrote "for ordinary mortals". :blink This guy was anything but....


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TC Talks
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by TC Talks » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:48 am

Or somebody just made a pile of money in Vegas betting that he would not surpass Jennings record.


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bmw
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by bmw » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:15 pm

He's a professional sports gambler. He made the CORRECT wager for giving himself the highest probability of winning the match. Bottom line was that he didn't control his own destiny going into Final as he wasn't in the lead. He did, however, have more than double the amount (albeit barely) of the guy in 3rd place, so he WAS able to knock the guy in 3rd out of the equation entirely, and that is what he did. He bet an amount such that even if he got it wrong, there was no way for the guy in 3rd to catch. Had James bet any higher amount at all, he then risked the guy in 3rd winning EVEN IF the leader got the wrong answer - and James winning specifically required the leader to get the wrong answer. So what James essentially did was guarantee himself a victory if the leader got the wrong answer, as she was almost certain to wager the specific amount of (James score times 2 minus her score plus 1 dollar). So of the 8 possible outcomes, he put himself in position to win in 4 of those 8. Had he bet any more at all, that number falls to 3 out of 8 - specifically losing the outcome whereby the leader gets it wrong, James gets it wrong, but the guy in 3rd gets it right.

I hope that all makes sense. In the end it is almost a wash though since James was much more likely to get the answer right than wrong given his past performance, at which point the question becomes which is more likely? James getting it wrong, or the leader betting some dollar amount other than double him plus 1. Hard to say for sure which was more likely, but James' bet reflects that he determined it was the first option (ie, that she was certain to bet what she did).



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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by bmw » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:18 pm

Also - the conspiracy theories that he bet small to not beat Jennings' record are ridiculous for two reasons. First and foremost, James almost certainly WANTED that record. Secondly, even if he had bet big and the leader got the wrong answer and he won the match, he still needed one more win to get there. This is nothing any more complicated than James applying game theory to come up with a wager that gave him the highest probability of winning the match.



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TC Talks
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by TC Talks » Tue Jun 04, 2019 12:44 pm

His average winnings per game have been above $60,000. He could have broken Jennings record on Monday.

Taking it right to the edge of Jennings record then losing in a way that he never has played before seems very suspicious when the odds makers we're paying considerably well for him to lose.

I'm not suggesting that he decided to lose in the middle of the match I'm suggesting it was a sandbag. You certainly cannot rule that out given his savvy as a professional gambler.

It opens the door to the question how does Jeopardy deal with Vegas wagering on contestants.

Brad Rutter $4,788,435
Ken Jennings $2,520,700
James Holzhauer $2,464,216

Meanwhile...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/arts-ent ... 0b8e9011d1


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bmw
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by bmw » Tue Jun 04, 2019 1:06 pm

I'm not buying it. He didn't play any differently. In fact he got off to his usual quick start and and a decent lead going into the second round. He lost for one reason and one reason only - he didn't find either Daily Double in the second round. If he finds either of those he probably wins.



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craig11152
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by craig11152 » Tue Jun 04, 2019 2:11 pm

bmw the flaw in your assumption is that a librarian in the hot seat for the first time ever would do the math right in placing her bet and not make a mistake. He left his only chance at her missing the question, something she had yet to do. If he bets big he adds the chance that she screws the math, something she hasn't had to do.
I get what you are saying and I understand the logic but under the circumstance if he bet big he could add "she makes a betting mistake" to "she gets the wrong answer" as possibilities.


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sfpcc
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by sfpcc » Tue Jun 04, 2019 11:12 pm

Emma won again tonight. She started the game at 1000, (the topic was Bible Chapters Without Vowels.) However, she went straight up category instead of going across the board.



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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by thekman » Wed Oct 09, 2019 11:43 pm

Much to my surprise, channel 4 was airing a Jeopardy repeat at 12:30 this afternoon. It seems like they’ve been mostly airing infomercials at 12:30 for years now.

Also much to my surprise, the episode featured Jeopardy James. Typically, I believe the 12:30 Jeopardy (for the decade channel 4 aired the repeats in that time slot before embracing infomercial) would air episodes consistently about one year old. However the episode today was James’ 20th win which would have aired more like 6 months ago.



80sTalkRadioFan
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Re: Newest Jeopardy! Uberchampion

Post by 80sTalkRadioFan » Thu Oct 10, 2019 3:24 pm

Yeah, that was a nice surprise yesterday/Wednesday afternoon. I forgot to check today at 12:30, maybe they'll do that more often.



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