Ohio - is it a bellwether anymore?

[FakeAndyStuart]

Interesting to look at Ohio's Republican Primary results over the past 8 years vs. general election -

Primaries
2024 - Trump 889,001 votes (80% of a total of 1,122,570 votes cast)
2020 - Trump 713,546 (100%, but not a good barometer due to COVID)
2016 - Trump 713,404 votes (35% of a total of 1,988,960 votes cast - Kasich won with 47%)

General
2020 - 3,154,834 (53%)
2016 - 2,841,005 (51%)

2020 was the first year since 1960 that Ohio's vote didn't match the winner (and it's only happened three times in 120 years).

But when you look at the 2023 Nov election on the constitutional amendment on abortion, almost 4 million votes were cast, with 57% voting for the amendment. I think Democrats will regret not waiting another year to put that on the ballot.

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Interesting to look at Ohio's Republican Primary results over the past 8 years vs. general election -

Primaries
2024 - Trump 889,001 votes (80% of a total of 1,122,570 votes cast)
2020 - Trump 713,546 (100%, but not a good barometer due to COVID)
2016 - Trump 713,404 votes (35% of a total of 1,988,960 votes cast - Kasich won with 47%)

General
2020 - 3,154,834 (53%)
2016 - 2,841,005 (51%)

2020 was the first year since 1960 that Ohio's vote didn't match the winner (and it's only happened three times in 120 years).

But when you look at the 2023 Nov election on the constitutional amendment on abortion, almost 4 million votes were cast, with 57% voting for the amendment. I think Democrats will regret not waiting another year to put that on the ballot.

They probably will. At the same time in general it is a red state now. In the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) which is measured currently off of the results of the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections and measures that against the country overall it has a PVI of R+6 which indicates that the state is 6 points more Republican than the national average. By contrast Michigan is R+1 and Wisconsin is R+2. So it’s in the solid Republican category. That certainly jives with the trend there the last several cycles.

[FakeAndyStuart]

2024 will be a turnout election. Who turns out the most motivated voters. Who has the biggest challenge? Pretty equal between disenchanted Haley/DeSantis/Pence/ABT fans and upset Biden “why won’t he stop the bloodshed in Gaza” voters.

[bmw]

Just as happened in 2016 and 2020, I predict that whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the presidency.

[Matt]

Yes, ohio is still a shit hole.

Oh, that wasn't the question? See my first answer.

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2024 will be a turnout election. Who turns out the most motivated voters. Who has the biggest challenge? Pretty equal between disenchanted Haley/DeSantis/Pence/ABT fans and upset Biden “why won’t he stop the bloodshed in Gaza” voters.

2024 is most certainly a turnout election. I'm gonna give the most trouble edge to Trump because he simply has the smaller base and he is foolishly not expanding his tent or even attempting to. He is doubling down on rhetoric that scares 20% of the Republican party to death and he badly needs that 20%.

[FakeAndyStuart]

2024 will be a turnout election. Who turns out the most motivated voters. Who has the biggest challenge? Pretty equal between disenchanted Haley/DeSantis/Pence/ABT fans and upset Biden “why won’t he stop the bloodshed in Gaza” voters.

2024 is most certainly a turnout election. I'm gonna give the most trouble edge to Trump because he simply has the smaller base and he is foolishly not expanding his tent or even attempting to. He is doubling down on rhetoric that scares 20% of the Republican party to death and he badly needs that 20%.

I think the real number there is larger than 20%, it’s just 20% brave enough to show their feelings and not fear retribution. As the campaign goes on I think that number can get higher, depending on events.

[Matt]

2024 will be a turnout election. Who turns out the most motivated voters. Who has the biggest challenge? Pretty equal between disenchanted Haley/DeSantis/Pence/ABT fans and upset Biden “why won’t he stop the bloodshed in Gaza” voters.

2024 is most certainly a turnout election. I'm gonna give the most trouble edge to Trump because he simply has the smaller base and he is foolishly not expanding his tent or even attempting to. He is doubling down on rhetoric that scares 20% of the Republican party to death and he badly needs that 20%.

I think the real number there is larger than 20%, it’s just 20% brave enough to show their feelings and not fear retribution. As the campaign goes on I think that number can get higher, depending on events.

BMW thinks we're going to "come around" and support the wannabe dictator. That's not happening.

[Rate This]

2024 will be a turnout election. Who turns out the most motivated voters. Who has the biggest challenge? Pretty equal between disenchanted Haley/DeSantis/Pence/ABT fans and upset Biden “why won’t he stop the bloodshed in Gaza” voters.

2024 is most certainly a turnout election. I'm gonna give the most trouble edge to Trump because he simply has the smaller base and he is foolishly not expanding his tent or even attempting to. He is doubling down on rhetoric that scares 20% of the Republican party to death and he badly needs that 20%.

I think the real number there is larger than 20%, it’s just 20% brave enough to show their feelings and not fear retribution. As the campaign goes on I think that number can get higher, depending on events.

Good point... I think the polls are overstating Trumps support to a large degree. There are several states where ticket splitting is showing up in the polls. That's usually not something we see these days. But we see Democrats with 3-6 point leads and Biden down. That doesn't really seem plausible.

[zzand]

Democrats will have a bigger turn out because the 40 percent or around that number of Republicans that don't want Trump will either not vote, vote third party or vote Biden because he isn't Trump.

[bmw]

Democrats will have a bigger turn out because the 40 percent or around that number of Republicans that don't want Trump will either not vote, vote third party or vote Biden because he isn't Trump.

If you think 40 percent of Republicans won't vote for Trump, then I have a bridge to sell you. That number will be in the single digits. I saw a mainstream poll recently (can't find it now) that said 97% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump in the general election.

[Rate This]

Democrats will have a bigger turn out because the 40 percent or around that number of Republicans that don't want Trump will either not vote, vote third party or vote Biden because he isn't Trump.

If you think 40 percent of Republicans won't vote for Trump, then I have a bridge to sell you. That number will be in the single digits. I saw a mainstream poll recently (can't find it now) that said 97% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump in the general election.

Then who makes up the 25% in the closed primary state of Kansas? It was a Republican only primary… I mean he MIGHT have 97% of what’s left when that 25% heads for the hills. There is no way 22 of that 25% vote against him and then shrug and align for him. No way. The continued lack of party unity in the voting - and his terrible performance in the suburbs is a big part of that — will be a major factor that he likely cannot overcome.

[Matt]

Democrats will have a bigger turn out because the 40 percent or around that number of Republicans that don't want Trump will either not vote, vote third party or vote Biden because he isn't Trump.

If you think 40 percent of Republicans won't vote for Trump, then I have a bridge to sell you. That number will be in the single digits. I saw a mainstream poll recently (can't find it now) that said 97% of Republicans plan to vote for Trump in the general election.

Remember in second or third grade when there was the creepy assignment of writing your own epitaph? You'll never convince me that yours was not "BUT THE POLLLLSSSS!!!"

[bmw]

Ok Matt, which do you think is more likely to happen, in reality? 40 percent of Republicans (who would otherwise vote and vote for the Republican nominee) not voting for Trump, or that number being in the single digits? Splitting the difference would be 25, and I would wager you a substantial amount of money that it will be under that.

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Ok Matt, which do you think is more likely to happen, in reality? 40 percent of Republicans (who would otherwise vote and vote for the Republican nominee) not voting for Trump, or that number being in the single digits? Splitting the difference would be 25, and I would wager you a substantial amount of money that it will be under that.

You gonna bother to explain away my point?