If you vote today...

[MWmetalhead]

The spin by some that Haley somehow had a decent showing yesterday is absurd, in my opinion.

She lost by 40 points in an OPEN primary, in a purple state, to a rather unpopular former President. She got her ass kicked.

I would be curious to know how her percentage of the vote compared to that of Pat Buchanan in 1992, bearing in mind George H.W. Bush had rather high approval ratings heading into reelection.

If Trump somehow is incapacitated from continuing his campaign, his delegates don't automatically go to the runner-up. Such a scenario would leave it up to convention delegates to choose whom to support. They most likely would support someone handpicked by Trump or his inner circle.

[bmw]

I would be curious to know how her percentage of the vote compared to that of Pat Buchanan in 1992, bearing in mind George H.W. Bush had rather high approval ratings heading into reelection.

Basically identical to yesterday.

67.2 percent to Bush
25.0 percent to Buchannon

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Repu ... _primaries

[bmw]

Uncommitted has over 100,000 votes - it is a factor in a record way. If it isn't clear to you that both of these "frontrunners" are despised by a large segment of the electorate, I don't know what to tell you.

2020 Results:
Democrat - 19,106 uncommitted
Republican - 32,743 uncommitted

2024 Results:
Democrat - 100,960 uncommitted
Republican - 33,373 uncommitted

Seems to me that one party's number of uncommitted voters went up 5-fold while the other's remained virtually unchanged.

[Bryce]

Let's not forget the 5 to 10 percent of Haley votes that came from Democrats.

[bmw]

Bryce, you were just a tad bit off on this one that you told us to save:

[Trump] won the CPAC straw poll by an overwhelming majority. He's not going to run. Write this down, save this post. He will throw his full support behind Florida Governor Ron DeSantis who will run and win in 2024. Hopefully with Nikki Haley as VP.

Ribbing aside, are there any actual numbers for party breakdown of Haley's vote share?

[Rate This]

With 77% in uncommitted is down 81-12 so this was a non factor.

Trump leads Haley 68-27 with 83% of the vote in.

Uncommitted has over 100,000 votes - it is a factor in a record way. If it isn't clear to you that both of these "frontrunners" are despised by a large segment of the electorate, I don't know what to tell you.

My point is that with one of Obama’s runs uncommitted was up near 20% so relative to previous cycles this 12% is not the massive thing some people desperately want it to be. Besides… both parties want both men to be their nominees and it’s not really close.

[bmw]

My point is that with one of Obama’s runs uncommitted was up near 20% so relative to previous cycles this 12% is not the massive thing some people desperately want it to be. Besides… both parties want both men to be their nominees and it’s not really close.

Matt is just trying to make mountains out of mole hills while ignoring the actual mountains.

[Matt]

With 77% in uncommitted is down 81-12 so this was a non factor.

Trump leads Haley 68-27 with 83% of the vote in.

Uncommitted has over 100,000 votes - it is a factor in a record way. If it isn't clear to you that both of these "frontrunners" are despised by a large segment of the electorate, I don't know what to tell you.

My point is that with one of Obama’s runs uncommitted was up near 20% so relative to previous cycles this 12% is not the massive thing some people desperately want it to be. Besides… both parties want both men to be their nominees and it’s not really close.

A significant chunk do not - that is something to watch.

[Chrocket87]

Uncommitted has over 100,000 votes - it is a factor in a record way. If it isn't clear to you that both of these "frontrunners" are despised by a large segment of the electorate, I don't know what to tell you.

2020 Results:
Democrat - 19,106 uncommitted
Republican - 32,743 uncommitted

2024 Results:
Democrat - 100,960 uncommitted
Republican - 33,373 uncommitted

Seems to me that one party's number of uncommitted voters went up 5-fold while the other's remained virtually unchanged.

And that 67,587 difference between the two could be enough to swing Michigan and maybe the Electoral College with it. Of course, the vast majority of uncommitted voters might be trying to send a message of disapproval, but will reluctantly vote for Biden, but wow, what a difference maker this could be.

[Rate This]

Uncommitted has over 100,000 votes - it is a factor in a record way. If it isn't clear to you that both of these "frontrunners" are despised by a large segment of the electorate, I don't know what to tell you.

2020 Results:
Democrat - 19,106 uncommitted
Republican - 32,743 uncommitted

2024 Results:
Democrat - 100,960 uncommitted
Republican - 33,373 uncommitted

Seems to me that one party's number of uncommitted voters went up 5-fold while the other's remained virtually unchanged.

I would point out that Trump lost about 35% of his people to someone else and Biden only lost about 20%. So from that perspective Trump has got to convince more of his party to come home if the results are in any way indicative of his support broadly. This is also the fourth contest in which he has had a 25% or larger share of the vote go somewhere else. The only one that didn’t happen in was the US Virgin Islands. Losing 25% or more of your voters on a consistent basis as a defacto incumbent in a party that you have subsumed into a business division is not a good sign.

[bmw]

A significant chunk do not - that is something to watch.

Perhaps you should do a tad bit of research into past primaries and their results before continuing to put your ignorance on full display.

Trump and Biden will be the party nominees (barring Biden dropping out voluntarily or something catastrophic happening to either candidate) and come election day, Trump and Biden each have a roughly equal number of otherwise supporters who would prefer somebody else, so that all cancels out. At the end of the day, either Trump or Biden will be our next President, and as polls stand now, Trump leads everywhere that matters. You're living in a pipe dream if you think somebody other than Biden or Trump has a chance of being the next President outside of the possibility of the aforementioned catastrophic event.

[bmw]

I would point out that Trump lost about 35% of his people to someone else and Biden only lost about 20%.

That is apples to oranges though as Biden has no serious contender and Trump does (Haley, even though she won't win, at least qualifies as a serious contender). If Haley had dropped out, I suspect Trump's vote tally would have been close to 90 percent.

Same as if Biden has a serious contender (such as Newsom). I'm not even sure Biden could have pulled 68% against somebody like that.

[Matt]

My point is that with one of Obama’s runs uncommitted was up near 20% so relative to previous cycles this 12% is not the massive thing some people desperately want it to be. Besides… both parties want both men to be their nominees and it’s not really close.

Matt is just trying to make mountains out of mole hills while ignoring the actual mountains.

You think Trump is going to win the election - maybe you should pipe down.

[Rate This]

I would point out that Trump lost about 35% of his people to someone else and Biden only lost about 20%.

That is apples to oranges though as Biden has no serious contender and Trump does (Haley, even though she won't win, at least qualifies as a serious contender). If Haley had dropped out, I suspect Trump's vote tally would have been close to 90 percent.

Same as if Biden has a serious contender (such as Newsom). I'm not even sure Biden could have pulled 68% against somebody like that.

He probably would have. Most of the uncommitted will in the end come home since Trumps Israel policy will be a whole lot worse in the eyes of the protest voters than Biden’s. Things will also undoubtedly change drastically in the Middle East by November. Trump has about 25-30% of his party really leery of him in general and they are largely college educated suburban Republicans. His base only strategy is not a good fit with those people and I’m figuring 15-20% of the party is where Matt is and is never Trump… he already skates on thin ice as it is…. Can he really afford to lose 15-20% of the party? I find that extremely doubtful.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Uncommitted defeated Biden in Sterling Heights precincts 1, 2,4, and 8 on the Democratic side.These are precincts with a high amount of Arab Americans. Biden should be a little worried.

Warren has still yet to report. I will be very interested to see the SW Warren voting results as they have a high Bangladesh population.

Are these people simply infinitely stupid or politically illiterate or both? If they don’t show up in November and cause Trump to get in the policy is a rubber stamp for Netanyahu… I’m no expert but they don’t look like Netanyahu fans to me… the progressives who rallied this deserve to be pushed off a cliff.

That said…. We’ve had uncommitted take a sizable share several times in recent memory and they set a stupidly low bar at 10%.

I voted uncommitted. I am a progressive first, Biden supporter second. Biden is the lesser of two weasels/evils.

You’re no better than a freedom caucuser then. Ideology first and practicality second. First to whine when the lack of strategy employed backfires spectacularly. I don’t mind some of the ideas but progressives have the political sense of a houseplant.

It’s my vote. I can do with it as I see fit. Biden needs to handle Palestine better as well as income inequality. He will get my vote in the general, but you can’t force me to vote for him every single damn primary. I didn’t vote for him in ‘20 either.

Love her or hate her, I really liked what Haley said about small business. I am sure it was just platitudes, but it’s a worthwhile sound bite.