2024 Presidential Election - It's Gonna Get Weird

[FakeAndyStuart]

Political ads, especially from PACs, are going to be so disgusting this year.

Biden - aged, decrepit, no memory, Alzheimerish
Trump - criminal, dementia, aged, decrepit

And in this battle, Trump has the advantage. Because he is willing to lie, repeatedly.
Ask Biden a question about his age he gets testy and angry.
Ask Trump, and he'll make something up about a bogus "mental test" and then tell a lie about Biden.

This shows the inherent flaws in our two party "let the people decide" primary system.

As one who has decided that Trump is not the best choice to return to the White House I'm very concerned about this entire process.

Then, I remember March, 1968. LBJ, battered by Vietnam War protesters and his own concerns about his health, dropped out of the race with a speech written months earlier. Which gave America Eugene McCarthy, Hubert Humphrey, the 1968 Chicago Dem convention and ultimately Richard Nixon. Oh Fuck.

Questions for the crowd - Biden drops out, who drops in?
Can Trump really get votes again from those who might vote for anybody else but Biden?

And please don't bother with "Trump doesn't lie" or "Under Trump we were all better" - please don't waste my time, I won't waste yours.

[FakeAndyStuart]

The media is certainly not sugarcoating it, and by "media" I mean the New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/10/opin ... =url-share

(That is a link around the paywall to read Maureen Dowd's column, you are welcome.)

[zzand]

I said in another thread Newsome and Michelle Obama would be likely choices.

[FakeAndyStuart]

I said in another thread Newsome and Michelle Obama would be likely choices.

Newsom is an interesting choice, if Biden drops out and he gets drafted at the convention.
Michelle Obama, from all media reports, never wants to be in the same area code as politics ever again. (Not the best of metaphors, but it's early.)

[Matt]

I said in another thread Newsome and Michelle Obama would be likely choices.

Newsom is an interesting choice, if Biden drops out and he gets drafted at the convention.
Michelle Obama, from all media reports, never wants to be in the same area code as politics ever again. (Not the best of metaphors, but it's early.)

The Obamas live in the 202 area code.

[FakeAndyStuart]

I said in another thread Newsome and Michelle Obama would be likely choices.

Newsom is an interesting choice, if Biden drops out and he gets drafted at the convention.
Michelle Obama, from all media reports, never wants to be in the same area code as politics ever again. (Not the best of metaphors, but it's early.)

The Obamas live in the 202 area code.

I said it was weak.. and in any case, don't they have houses in Chicago and Martha's Vineyard as well?

Okay I'll change it.

Michelle Obama, from all media reports, never wants to be anywhere near politics ever again.

[bmw]

Questions for the crowd - Biden drops out, who drops in?

As I've been predicting for over a year now - Gavin Newsom. Who is VP pick would be is anybody's guess but my money would be on Whitmer.

Can Trump really get votes again from those who might vote for anybody else but Biden?

If recent polls are any indication, then the answer is "yes." For 3 consecutive months now, his polling average has been higher than it has ever been, and a number of polls put him over 50, including polls done by Harvard, Harris, CBS News, Fox News, ABC News, and the Washington Post. I don't recall him ever cracking 50 in any individual poll in either 2016 or 2020.

[FakeAndyStuart]

Can Trump really get votes again from those who might vote for anybody else but Biden?

If recent polls are any indication, then the answer is "yes." For 3 consecutive months now, his polling average has been higher than it has ever been, and a number of polls put him over 50, including polls done by Harvard, Harris, CBS News, Fox News, ABC News, and the Washington Post. I don't recall him ever cracking 50 in any individual poll in either 2016 or 2020.

Devil's Advocate - Polls this early are meaningless.. first, only people really paying attention to politics have an opinion. Second, no one answers the phone anymore. When is the last time you talked to a "pollster"?

Polls taken and used by candidates might help them discover geographies and craft messages. But polls aren't news. And news organizations who take them and use them to craft news coverage are lazy.

[bmw]

The polls for the Republican caucus in Iowa - a caucus that is notoriously difficult to predict - were shockingly accurate.

The final poll done - the Trafalger poll - had:
Trump at 52 (he got 51)
Haley at 19 (spot-on)
DeSantis at 19 (he got 21)
Ramaswamy at 7 (he got 8 )

I was using recent polls to answer your question. You asked if Trump can get votes from anybody-but-Biden voters. The fact that he's polling at over 50% in a number of different polls - polls which never gave him those kinds of numbers before - would suggest that the answer MIGHT be yes.

[Rate This]

Can Trump really get votes again from those who might vote for anybody else but Biden?

If recent polls are any indication, then the answer is "yes." For 3 consecutive months now, his polling average has been higher than it has ever been, and a number of polls put him over 50, including polls done by Harvard, Harris, CBS News, Fox News, ABC News, and the Washington Post. I don't recall him ever cracking 50 in any individual poll in either 2016 or 2020.

Devil's Advocate - Polls this early are meaningless.. first, only people really paying attention to politics have an opinion. Second, no one answers the phone anymore. When is the last time you talked to a "pollster"?

Polls taken and used by candidates might help them discover geographies and craft messages. But polls aren't news. And news organizations who take them and use them to craft news coverage are lazy.

Yes and since Trump has had nothing but time to campaign his voters are engaged and nobody else is. Several failed people cracked 50 in February. Nobody is gonna suddenly see the light on Trump 9 years in.

If it’s Newsom and Whitmer then Trump loses in a landslide.

As for Iowa which Beemer mentioned while I was typing this… 51 isn’t a ringing endorsement when everybody else got 48 combined. It’s actually really weak. Then his showing in New Hampshire among self defined independents was abysmal.

[bmw]

If it’s Newsom and Whitmer then Trump loses in a landslide.

If that's the conventional wisdom, then why aren't Democrats going that route?

As much as I can't stand her, I do think Whitmer would be a formidable opponent (which, Matt said he'd vote for Newsom - I also know his opinion of Whitmer and I wonder if he'd vote for a ticket with her name on it). Newsom's brand of west-coast liberalism doesn't play particularly well in the midwest which is why I think Whitmer would perfectly complement his ticket. Newsom plus anybody else loses to Trump, IMO. Newsom plus Whitmer would be interesting.

As for Iowa which Beemer mentioned while I was typing this… 51 isn’t a ringing endorsement when everybody else got 48 combined. It’s actually really weak. Then his showing in New Hampshire among self defined independents was abysmal.

That logic is garbage and you know it. Trump isn't going to lose a single primary or caucus. How many states did Obama lose to Hillary in 2008? Did those losses make him weak?

[Rate This]

If it’s Newsom and Whitmer then Trump loses in a landslide.

If that's the conventional wisdom, then why aren't Democrats going that route?

As much as I can't stand her, I do think Whitmer would be a formidable opponent (which, Matt said he'd vote for Newsom - I also know his opinion of Whitmer and I wonder if he'd vote for a ticket with her name on it). Newsom's brand of west-coast liberalism doesn't play particularly well in the midwest which is why I think Whitmer would perfectly complement his ticket. Newsom plus anybody else loses to Trump, IMO. Newsom plus Whitmer would be interesting.

As for Iowa which Beemer mentioned while I was typing this… 51 isn’t a ringing endorsement when everybody else got 48 combined. It’s actually really weak. Then his showing in New Hampshire among self defined independents was abysmal.

That logic is garbage and you know it. Trump isn't going to lose a single primary or caucus. How many states did Obama lose to Hillary in 2008? Did those losses make him weak?

Obama wasn’t a former president then. That’s the big difference. He may not lose a single primary or caucus but it does show cracks in the facade. New Hampshire with the independents really showed cracks in the facade as a bunch of them were never Trump. It was a big enough number that were it repeated he could not win.

We are talking hypothetical matchups. But yanking your candidate is something we don’t do. LBJ quit on his own. Biden isn’t showing any signs of quitting and nobody is making noise or moves on the Democratic side in that direction. Sure that could change hypothetically but it’s exceedingly unlikely.

[bmw]

I actually think it is exceedingly likely that the Dems dump Biden. You said yesterday you were going to comment last night on why Biden's cognition is such a sensitive topic for you. Now would be a good time to comment.

I see, and many Americans see, Biden's cognition slipping rapidly. And in that state of decline, 10 months between now and election day is a long time. I know you see things differently. Many others don't.

[Matt]

If it’s Newsom and Whitmer then Trump loses in a landslide.

If that's the conventional wisdom, then why aren't Democrats going that route?

As much as I can't stand her, I do think Whitmer would be a formidable opponent (which, Matt said he'd vote for Newsom - I also know his opinion of Whitmer and I wonder if he'd vote for a ticket with her name on it). Newsom's brand of west-coast liberalism doesn't play particularly well in the midwest which is why I think Whitmer would perfectly complement his ticket. Newsom plus anybody else loses to Trump, IMO. Newsom plus Whitmer would be interesting.

As for Iowa which Beemer mentioned while I was typing this… 51 isn’t a ringing endorsement when everybody else got 48 combined. It’s actually really weak. Then his showing in New Hampshire among self defined independents was abysmal.

That logic is garbage and you know it. Trump isn't going to lose a single primary or caucus. How many states did Obama lose to Hillary in 2008? Did those losses make him weak?

Whitmer is tolerable the further we get away from her bullshit covid response. If a term of her as VP rids us of Trump, it is a price worth paying.

[Rate This]

I actually think it is exceedingly likely that the Dems dump Biden. You said yesterday you were going to comment last night on why Biden's cognition is such a sensitive topic for you. Now would be a good time to comment.

I see, and many Americans see, Biden's cognition slipping rapidly. And in that state of decline, 10 months between now and election day is a long time. I know you see things differently. Many others don't.

Ok... here goes a twofold explanation. Firstly I watched both of my mother's parents die of actual dementia. It started slow and not as mixing things up but as telling stories for 20 minutes after it was appropriate to do so or even when it never was. Standing in the doctors office talking about whatever with the receptionist and missing all cues to shut up. That was new. That was my grandfather around 2008 or so. The next year I believe (see I don't have a problem and even I'm not sure... it could have been 2010) he was driving and ran into somebody.... and kept right on going not knowing he had hit anything, the cops had to go flag him down. That was the end of his license. Then the memory issues got worse and the outbursts began and eventually he fell and while in the ER he tried to give me a horse style kick. That would never have happened before this.

My grandmothers decline was even quicker... she was mentally gone within 2 years and didn't know who people were at all. At least he knew part of the day but her? Gone almost all of the time. Dementia usually takes people in 5-6 years and you don't recover from it and it's way more than mixing names up. The brain is literally unraveling. Those lines that are all squiggled around each other like spaghetti... whatever hold that as one piece breaks down and it separates and it can't function that way. By the last year of his life my grandfather was a World War 2 pilot... he had never flown a plane and spent a stint in Korea because he was 12 when the war ended. She died a year before he did and he got the joy of finding out every day that his wife of 63 years wasn't alive after looking all over for her. Every. Damn. Day. So forgive me if Biden mixing names of places or people up the last 5 years just doesn't do it for me. It isn't enough evidence by a long shot to say someone is cognitively declining. Especially when it's been consistent and the Republicans have been saying it since he declared in 2019 and he has long had gaffes like this in his career. 5 Years and we haven't budged on what is supposedly wrong with him. It doesn't work that way. Had this been actual dementia Harris would be your president now. He would be unable to read a teleprompter or answer a barrage of questions without flinching... any of it. Slipping rapidly is not remotely close to reality.

The second part of this. I write pretty well as you can see. I sometimes have a stutter bad enough to stop talking, close my eyes take a deep breath and start again because what's coming out is just word salad. I have been known to confuse things like for example the minute I droned on to somebody about MS when I meant Parkinson's before I was angrily corrected. I didn't even know I was that far off. If I go into a situation where I want to explain or advocate for something I often don't say the right thing because the words don't come to me that fast. There are pauses, I sometimes remember crucial things I should have said after the fact. Sometimes the wrong thing comes out and I sound like a rambling fool rather than the command I actually have of the subject. Other times I can think on my feet good enough to get by. Occasionally I do great at it. Biden suffers from the same thing, he is a lifelong stutterer. As I mentioned earlier in this paragraph that can manifest itself in other ways besides da-da-da-danger. So when he says Mexico instead of Egypt or green instead of blue or whatever it's most likely got to do with that problem. Especially since he's been making gaffes regularly his entire career. Now you couple that with old age and the brain, which is an organ after all, not as perfectly able to control the stutter as it may have when he was 35 and this is what you get. I will either get there too or get dementia first. So thank you for kicking someone like me because the words don't come out right.