2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

[Honeyman]

In defense of beemer, all he did was contribute poll information to the poll information thread. A thread that has been on this board since November of 2022 and is at 37 pages. Now, I was the first one with a smart ass remark, so it's not like I'm innocent here.....but that's my m.o. But I expect better of everybody else.

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Does anyone remember how accurate the polls were in 2016 and 2020? ROFL. I don't trust shit. The electorate is more fickle than we think besides.

In 2016 they didn’t pick up the October surprise from James Comey about reopening the Hillary email investigation. That was with a week to go and when that happened a large shift to Trump occurred and they simply couldn’t catch up fast enough. The 2020 polls weren’t all that far off however. They were good in 2018 and 2022… there is something about Trump on the ballot that is unique.

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February 24

HarrisX
GOP Nomination:
Trump 76
Haley 13

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 72
Phillips 7

General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 48

Trump 42
Biden 40
Kennedy 14
West 3
Stein 2

February 26

The Hill / Emerson
Michigan GOP Primary:
Trump 76
Haley 24

Michigan Democratic Primary:
Biden 77
Phillips 7

Michigan General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 44

Trump 42
Biden 39
Kennedy 6
Stein 1
West 1

Harvard-Harris
GOP Nomination:
Trump 78
Haley 14

General Election:
Trump 53
Biden 47

Trump 44
Biden 37
Kennedy 18

Trump 44
Biden 36
Kennedy 17
West 3
Stein 1

Pan-Atlantic
Maine GOP Primary:
Trump 66
Haley 24

Maine General Election:
Trump 38
Biden 32

Maine CD-1 General Election:
Biden 39
Trump 31

Maine CD-2 General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 25

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February 27

The Hill / Emerson
Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 42

Trump 41
Biden 37
Kennedy 7
Stein 1
West 1

Morning Consult
GOP Nomination:
Trump 81
Haley 18

General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 43

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February 28

Economist / YouGov
GOP Nomination:
Trump 80
Haley 12

General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 44

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44
Republicans 43

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February 29

Bloomberg / Morning Consult
Michigan General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 44

Trump 41
Biden 40
Kennedy 9
Stein 1
West 1

Arizona General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 43

Trump 45
Biden 36
Kennedy 9
Stein 1
West 1

Georgia General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 43

Trump 45
BIden 38
Kennedy 6
West 1
Stein 1

Nevada General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 42

Trump 44
Biden 37
Kennedy 9
Stein 1
West 0

North Carolina General Election:
Trump 50
Biden 41

Trump 45
Biden 35
Kennedy 9
West 1
Stein 1

Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 43

Trump 45
Biden 36
Kennedy 8
Stein 1
West 1

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 42

Trump 41
Biden 35
Kennedy 10
Stein 1
West 1

The Hill / Emerson
California GOP Primary:
Trump 75
Haley 17

California Democratic Primary:
Biden 80
Phillips 6

California General Election:
Biden 57
Trump 35

Biden 51
Trump 31
Kennedy 7
West 2
Stein 1

[Turkeytop]

Looks like Joe is toast. Anyone interested in buying a nice double-wide mobile home on Florida's gulf coast, there may be one coming available later this year.

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Looks like Joe is toast. Anyone interested in buying a nice double-wide mobile home on Florida's gulf coast, there may be one coming available later this year.

Far from it. 8 months is an eternity.

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March 1

Roanoke College
Virginia GOP Primary:
Trump 51
Haley 43

Virginia General Election:
Biden 47
Trump 43

Haley 49
Biden 40

Forbes / HarrisX
GOP Nomination:
Trump 79
Haley 12

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 74
Phillips 7

General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 48

Trump 43
Biden 38
Kennedy 14
West 3
Stein 2

[Matt]

March 1

Roanoke College
Virginia GOP Primary:
Trump 51
Haley 43

Virginia General Election:
Biden 47
Trump 43

Haley 49
Biden 40

Forbes / HarrisX
GOP Nomination:
Trump 79
Haley 12

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 74
Phillips 7

General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 48

Trump 43
Biden 38
Kennedy 14
West 3
Stein 2

Virginia in play with Haley...

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March 1

Roanoke College
Virginia GOP Primary:
Trump 51
Haley 43

Virginia General Election:
Biden 47
Trump 43

Haley 49
Biden 40

Forbes / HarrisX
GOP Nomination:
Trump 79
Haley 12

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 74
Phillips 7

General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 48

Trump 43
Biden 38
Kennedy 14
West 3
Stein 2

Virginia in play with Haley...

And even if she loses that is a terrible number for Trump.

[bmw]

If that's a terrible number for Trump, how about for Biden?

Virginia election results:
2016 - Hillary 50, Trump 44 (Hillary +6)
2020 - Biden 54, Trump 44 (Biden +10)

Current RCP average:
2024 - Biden 46, Trump 42 (Biden +4)

So Biden has lost 8 points, Trump down 2, and Trump is the one who has a terrible number there?

Virginia probably stays blue, but it won't be the 10-point blowout it was in 2020.

And Matt - you keep ignoring how unpopular Haley is in Texas. Most recent poll done there has Biden +9 over Haley. If Texas went blue, that would be it, no matter how well everything else went. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia combined wouldn't even be enough to cancel that one out.

[Matt]

If that's a terrible number for Trump, how about for Biden?

Virginia election results:
2016 - Hillary 50, Trump 44 (Hillary +6)
2020 - Biden 54, Trump 44 (Biden +10)

Current RCP average:
2024 - Biden 46, Trump 42 (Biden +4)

So Biden has lost 8 points, Trump down 2, and Trump is the one who has a terrible number there?

Virginia probably stays blue, but it won't be the 10-point blowout it was in 2020.

And Matt - you keep ignoring how unpopular Haley is in Texas. Most recent poll done there has Biden +9 over Haley. If Texas went blue, that would be it, no matter how well everything else went. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia combined wouldn't even be enough to cancel that one out.

https://www.270towin.com/

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If that's a terrible number for Trump, how about for Biden?

Virginia election results:
2016 - Hillary 50, Trump 44 (Hillary +6)
2020 - Biden 54, Trump 44 (Biden +10)

Current RCP average:
2024 - Biden 46, Trump 42 (Biden +4)

So Biden has lost 8 points, Trump down 2, and Trump is the one who has a terrible number there?

Virginia probably stays blue, but it won't be the 10-point blowout it was in 2020.

And Matt - you keep ignoring how unpopular Haley is in Texas. Most recent poll done there has Biden +9 over Haley. If Texas went blue, that would be it, no matter how well everything else went. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Virginia combined wouldn't even be enough to cancel that one out.

I was referring to Trumps 8 point lead over Haley there. If he’s such a shoo in for everything that number should be nowhere near 51-43.

[bmw]

I was referring to Trumps 8 point lead over Haley there. If he’s such a shoo in for everything that number should be nowhere near 51-43.

That's because it isn't. That is a typo on the RCP page. Actual number is Trump 75, Haley 15.

https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpol ... eb2024.pdf