2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

[bmw]

I remember somebody in here saying recently that Biden's voters won't go to Trump. A new poll suggests otherwise.

New polling from The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday spells further trouble for Biden, showing that 10 percent of voters who backed him in 2020 now plan to support Trump in November. Meanwhile, less than 0.5 percent of Trump's 2020 backers plan to back Biden. The polling showed that Trump maintains the support of 97 percent of his 2020 supporters, whereas Biden only has the backing of 83 percent of his former voters.

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-bidens-202 ... mp-1875284

Ruh Roh.

As an aside, I guess now we can call Matt a 3-percenter.

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I was referring to Trumps 8 point lead over Haley there. If he’s such a shoo in for everything that number should be nowhere near 51-43.

That's because it isn't. That is a typo on the RCP page. Actual number is Trump 75, Haley 15.

https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpol ... eb2024.pdf

The 51-43 is a couple questions after and it’s the very and somewhat likely to vote people… Virginia May have an open primary where independents and Democrats can vote too. Your number is only among Republicans. RCP was right.

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March 2

New York Times / Siena
GOP Nomination:
Trump 76
Haley 21

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 79
Phillips 10

General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 44

Haley 46
Biden 37

[zzand]

I am assuming that if Trump does get back in the Dems will gain control of both houses and we will get nothing done other than more Trump impeachment proceedings and maybe this time both house will be successful in getting him out. As for what the impeachment will be about I have a feeling that is already being worked on behind the scenes

[bmw]

I am assuming that if Trump does get back in the Dems will gain control of both houses...

That is almost certainly not going to happen in the Senate. There are 23 Dem seats up but only 11 Republican ones, and Republicans are favored to fairly easily hold all 11 of theirs. Manchin's seat is considered to safely go red, so right there it is 50/50 with the tiebreaker to the President. Of the other 22 (D) seats up for re-election, 7 of them are considered competitive. The range here is basically 50-56R, 44-50D.

[zzand]

I don't go with polling or betting odds. I go with vote totals on election day. Then you know for sure but thanks for the meaningless numbers this far out.

[bmw]

Barring a catastrophic event involving multiple Senate candidates, the Senate WILL be at the absolute worst for the Republicans at 50-50.

Write it down. Screen shot it. Whatever. I am ONE HUNDRED PERCENT confident in this prediction. There are simply no Republican seats up this coming cycle that even remotely have a chance of turning blue. The only 2 red seats considered anything less than a lock for Republicans are Scott in FL and Cruz in TX, and those aren't going blue.

I think even RT will back me up on this one.

[zzand]

You were certain Trump would win last time. So forgive me if I don't believe

[bmw]

I never once said I was certain of that. Looking back at the predictions thread of the time, my prediction was that the winner of PA would be the next President, and I predicted that PA would super narrowly go to Trump. I also missed Georgia and Arizona. 47 out of 50 states correct. In 2016 I got 49 out of 50 correct (a better record than probably anybody anywhere).

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Barring a catastrophic event involving multiple Senate candidates, the Senate WILL be at the absolute worst for the Republicans at 50-50.

Write it down. Screen shot it. Whatever. I am ONE HUNDRED PERCENT confident in this prediction. There are simply no Republican seats up this coming cycle that even remotely have a chance of turning blue. The only 2 red seats considered anything less than a lock for Republicans are Scott in FL and Cruz in TX, and those aren't going blue.

I think even RT will back me up on this one.

The preponderance of the evidence at the moment says a GOP senate and Democratic house. We will most certainly do nothing either way then. Trump would try lots of executive action and we can have a Supreme Court off to see who is right.

That said since 2021 things have consistently been bluer than they looked like was possible. The fertility decision in Alabama and the SCOTUS decision on Birth Control in June could cause a blue wave easily.

[bmw]

Any blue wave would be in the House, and even there, it looks like not too many seats are considered competitive - far fewer than in 2022. Current projections I can find say Dem +3 to +5 gains, basically putting the House in a near-deadlock. Wouldn't shock me at all though if the House ends up +10 to the blue side.

But the Senate is another animal, and Dems are defending way more there than Republicans are this time around. That of course fares well for Democrats in 2026 and 2028. Republicans really need to get up to 52 or 53 seats this time around or else it will almost certainly be blue in 2026.

[Round Six]

I am assuming that if Trump does get back in the Dems will gain control of both houses and we will get nothing done other than more Trump impeachment proceedings and maybe this time both house will be successful in getting him out. As for what the impeachment will be about I have a feeling that is already being worked on behind the scenes

I'm no fan of Trump. But unless he does something deemed nefarious during the term he was elected to, I'm not seeing a basis for impeachment.

[Matt]

I am assuming that if Trump does get back in the Dems will gain control of both houses and we will get nothing done other than more Trump impeachment proceedings and maybe this time both house will be successful in getting him out. As for what the impeachment will be about I have a feeling that is already being worked on behind the scenes

I'm no fan of Trump. But unless he does something deemed nefarious during the term he was elected to, I'm not seeing a basis for impeachment.

There wasn't a basis for his first impeachment either.

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I am assuming that if Trump does get back in the Dems will gain control of both houses and we will get nothing done other than more Trump impeachment proceedings and maybe this time both house will be successful in getting him out. As for what the impeachment will be about I have a feeling that is already being worked on behind the scenes

I'm no fan of Trump. But unless he does something deemed nefarious during the term he was elected to, I'm not seeing a basis for impeachment.

There wasn't a basis for his first impeachment either.

Something about dirt on Biden in exchange for aid and a perfect phone call. Otherwise spot on.

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March 3

FOX News
General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 47

Trump 41
Biden 38
Kennedy 13
West 3
Stein 2

Haley 50
Biden 42

Wall Street Journal
General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 45

Trump 40
Biden 35
Kennedy 9
West 2
Stein 1
Mapstead 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46
Democrats 42

CBS News
General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 48