2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

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April 16

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
Texas General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 34
Kennedy 9
Stein 2
Oliver 1

Chase Oliver is the Libertarian nominee... add him to your bingo cards.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

April 16

Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation
Texas General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 34
Kennedy 9
Stein 2
Oliver 1

Chase Oliver is the Libertarian nominee... add him to your bingo cards.

Let's hope he is as irrelevant as he was in Georgia.

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April 17

MRG
Michigan General Election:
Trump 42
Biden 36

Trump 37
Biden 34
Kennedy 13
Stein 2
West 1

Marquette
Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 49

Trump 41
Biden 40
Kennedy 13
Stein 3
West 2

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 44
Kennedy 3
West 1
Stein 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 43
Democrats 43

April 18

Emerson
General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 43

Trump 44
Biden 40
Kennedy 8
West 1
Stein 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 45
Democrats 45

Yahoo News
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 44

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 42

Daily Kos / Civiqs
General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 44

Florida Atlantic University
Florida General Election:
Trump 50
Biden 42

Trump 48
Biden 38
Kennedy 7

[Honeyman]

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/rcna148536

[bmw]

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/rcna148536

This, per the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ident-2024

As to how this will affect the national election, I suspect he will pull 1 to 1.5 percent of the national vote, pretty equally from Republican and Democrat voters. Ultimately, he will be a non-factor.

Because Kemnedy is such a popular name with Republicans?!? Even the article you linked disagrees with you.

a third-party candidate is widely seen to be likely to peel more support from Biden than the likely Republican nominee, Donald Trump, thereby potentially handing the presidency to the Republican.

[bmw]

Also, it varies a lot state-by-state.

In Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, Trump's margin is about 2-3 points bigger in a 5-person race than a 2-person race. The opposite is true in Michigan. Wisconsin is a wash.

Nationally, Trump does about 1 point better in a 5-person race.

I don't think the 3rd-party vote will be quite as big in the final election results as it is in the polling, which is largely a protest statement - some of those people will ultimately vote for Trump or Biden.

Right now, I'd say Kennedy very marginally benefits Trump, perhaps by half a point.

[Honeyman]

RFK Jr. candidacy hurts Trump more than Biden, NBC News poll finds

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/rcna148536

This, per the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ident-2024

As to how this will affect the national election, I suspect he will pull 1 to 1.5 percent of the national vote, pretty equally from Republican and Democrat voters. Ultimately, he will be a non-factor.

Because Kemnedy is such a popular name with Republicans?!? Even the article you linked disagrees with you.

a third-party candidate is widely seen to be likely to peel more support from Biden than the likely Republican nominee, Donald Trump, thereby potentially handing the presidency to the Republican.

I know you live to argue on this site. All I was doing was posting an article I read, without a personal comment one way or another. The article itself says, "The finding contrasts with a number of other national polls, and it comes amid concerted Democratic efforts to prevent Kennedy from harming Biden’s campaign.".

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April 19

FOX News
Michigan General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 46

Trump 42
Biden 40
Kennedy 9
Stein 2
West 2

Georgia General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 45

Trump 46
Biden 39
Kennedy 7
West 2
Stein 1

Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 48

Trump 44
Biden 42
Kennedy 8
Stein 2
West 1

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 48

Biden 43
Trump 41
Kennedy 9
Stein 2
West 2

Morning Consult
General Election:
Trump 42
Biden 42

Mason-Dixon
North Carolina General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 43

April 21

NBC News
General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 44

Biden 39
Trump 37
Kennedy 13
Stein 3
West 2

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 46

[Honeyman]

Biden leading in on-line betting.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election

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Biden leading in on-line betting.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election

By 10 no less… bettors usually don’t put their necks out and make fanboy bets so I count this as a good sign for now.

[zzand]

My personal opinion is the trial is hurting Trump in that he has to be in court every day except for Wednesday when the court is closed. So he can only hit the campaign trail three days a week. With his base that is fine but with the independent and undecided voter that could be an issue.

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April 22

Marist
General Election:
Biden 51
Trump 48

Biden 43
Trump 38
Kennedy 14
West 2
Stein 2

Siena
New York General Election:
Biden 47
Trump 37

The Marist poll with Biden up is introduced this way:

Despite a still close contest between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Trump’s support among white voters and independents has splintered. Biden is doing better than he did in 2020 among white voters, and he has eliminated the advantage that Trump had among independents earlier this month. Biden has a three-percentage point edge over Trump among registered voters nationally. In addition to independents, Trump has lost some ground among those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump. Among those who definitely plan to vote in November, Biden holds a six-percentage point lead. Biden is up five-percentage points in a multi-candidate field.

Three percentage points separate Biden (51%) and Trump (48%) among registered voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, Biden received 50% to 48% for Trump. Among those who definitely plan to vote in November, Biden (53%) is +6 percentage points over Trump (47%).

Trump has lost support among independents and those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates. Trump (49%) and Biden (49%) now tie among independents. Trump held a 7-percentage point lead over Biden previously (52% for Trump to 45% for Biden). Among those who have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, Biden (50%) and Trump (48%) are now competitive. Trump previously had a 15-percentage point advantage over Biden (54% for Trump to 39% for Biden) among these voters.

67% of Trump supporters say they are voting for Trump because they are for him and not because they are against Biden (32%). Among Biden’s supporters, 55% back him because they believe in their candidate. 43% support him because they oppose Trump.

Biden (43%) is up by five percentage points against Trump (38%) among registered voters in a multi-candidate field that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (14%), Cornel West (2%), and Jill Stein (2%). Biden was previously +2 percentage points over Trump (43% for Biden to 41% for Trump) in early April. Among those who definitely plan to vote, Biden (46%) is +7 percentage points against Trump (39%) in this multi-candidate field.

Trump’s support among independents is also down (30% from 38%) in a multi-candidate field. While Biden’s support is little changed (34% from 33%), Kennedy’s support among independents has inched up to 27% from 21%, previously.

Pretty interesting stuff especially Biden up 53-47 among definite voters. Beemer?

[bmw]

Beemer?

Not much to comment on, at least not yet. 2 outlier polls isn't exactly a trend. No poll since November has had Biden any more than +2, so Biden +5 looks to be, by definition, an outlier. Now if Trump starts losing ground in the Rasmussen, Emerson, or Economist/Yougov polls that are taken all the time, then I will take notice. But that hasn't happened, yet.

[Matt]

Beemer?

Not much to comment on, at least not yet. 2 outlier polls isn't exactly a trend. No poll since November has had Biden any more than +2, so Biden +5 looks to be, by definition, an outlier. Now if Trump starts losing ground in the Rasmussen, Emerson, or Economist/Yougov polls that are taken all the time, then I will take notice. But that hasn't happened, yet.

What about your beloved predictit showing Biden as a clear favorite?

[bmw]

What about your beloved predictit showing Biden as a clear favorite?

I would hardly call placing a 55% chance on a Biden victory a "clear favorite," nevertheless there has been some movement in Biden's direction over the past 2 weeks on PI. The wisdom there, just reading through some of the comments, appears to be that there will be a guilty verdict in the NY bookkeeping case and that this will hurt Trump politically.