2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

MotorCityRadioFreak · Post by **MotorCityRadioFreak** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:08 am

Is the Alabama election a total anomaly? How can Democrats do so well in in a +5 R district and win by 25 points and be behind in Georgia?

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:25 am

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:08 am
Is the Alabama election a total anomaly? How can Democrats do so well in in a +5 R district and win by 25 points and be behind in Georgia?

I don’t think it’s an anomaly at all… since Roe was overturned they have consistently done better than expected and shocked people over and over winning where they shouldn’t when they run on reproductive rights. It’s clearly a winner for them. I also think the polls have something wrong with them… there is a disconnect between the polls and the overachievement that I haven’t seen a satisfactory explanation to.

Matt · Post by **Matt** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 10:10 am

Rate This wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:25 am

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:08 am
Is the Alabama election a total anomaly? How can Democrats do so well in in a +5 R district and win by 25 points and be behind in Georgia?
I don’t think it’s an anomaly at all… since Roe was overturned they have consistently done better than expected and shocked people over and over winning where they shouldn’t when they run on reproductive rights. It’s clearly a winner for them. I also think the polls have something wrong with them… there is a disconnect between the polls and the overachievement that I haven’t seen a satisfactory explanation to.

That's not necessarily going to continue through the fall. It is true that it partially stopped an expected red wave in 2022, but that was also aided by a crop of terrible Trump backed candidates. Alabama was different because the IVF thing JUST HAPPENED. It remains to be seen how much staying power the issue has where it is front and center.

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 11:18 am

Matt wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 28, 2024 10:10 am

Rate This wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:25 am

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑
Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:08 am
Is the Alabama election a total anomaly? How can Democrats do so well in in a +5 R district and win by 25 points and be behind in Georgia?
I don’t think it’s an anomaly at all… since Roe was overturned they have consistently done better than expected and shocked people over and over winning where they shouldn’t when they run on reproductive rights. It’s clearly a winner for them. I also think the polls have something wrong with them… there is a disconnect between the polls and the overachievement that I haven’t seen a satisfactory explanation to.
That's not necessarily going to continue through the fall. It is true that it partially stopped an expected red wave in 2022, but that was also aided by a crop of terrible Trump backed candidates. Alabama was different because the IVF thing JUST HAPPENED. It remains to be seen how much staying power the issue has where it is front and center.

It also happened in 2023 and has continued this year… they are also lining up another pile of Trump backed candidates.

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Fri Mar 29, 2024 1:57 am

March 28

FOX News
General Election:
Trump 50
Biden 45

Trump 43
Biden 38
Kennedy 12
Stein 2
West 2

Forbes / HarrisX
General Election:
Biden 50
Trump 50

Trump 42
Biden 40
Kennedy 14
Stein 2
West 2

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Wed Apr 03, 2024 12:05 am

April 2

Morning Consult
Biden 44
Trump 42

Trafalgar Group
Trump 43
Biden 40
Kennedy 11
West 2
Stein 1

The Hill / Emerson
New Jersey General Election:
Biden 46
Trump 39

Biden 41
Trump 36
Kennedy 8
West 1
Stein 1

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Thu Apr 04, 2024 1:31 am

April 3

Wall Street Journal
Michigan General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 45

Trump 39
Biden 37
Kennedy 12
Stein 2
West 2

Arizona General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 42

Trump 39
Biden 34
Kennedy 13
West 2
Stein 1

Georgia General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 43

Trump 38
Biden 35
Kennedy 8
West 2
Stein 1

Nevada General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 44

Trump 37
Biden 33
Kennedy 15
West 2
Stein 2

North Carolina General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 43

Trump 42
Biden 34
Kennedy 10
West 2
Stein 1

Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 44

Trump 41
Biden 38
Kennedy 7
West 3
Stein 1

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 46

Biden 41
Trump 38
Kennedy 10
Stein 1
West 1

NPR / PBS / Marist
General Election:
Biden 50
Trump 48

Biden 43
Trump 41
Kennedy 11
Stein 2
West 1

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Trump 43
Biden 43
Kennedy 2
West 1
Stein 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44
Republicans 41

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Fri Apr 05, 2024 2:06 am

They snuck one by me even though I looked at 1am the next morning before writing it up. RCP makes goofy decisions about going back and adding polls to previous days sometimes. Their new format is inferior to the original too.

April 3 Part 2

Data For Progress
General Election:
Biden 47
Trump 46

Trump 42
Biden 41
Kennedy 8
West 1
Stein 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46
Republicans 44

April 4

Marquette
General Election:
Trump 50
Biden 50

Trump 41
Biden 38
Kennedy 14
West 5
Stein 2

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 52
Democrats 48

Emerson
General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 45

Trump 43
Biden 42
Kennedy 8
West 1
Stein 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46
Republicans 45

Rasmusen Reports
General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 41

Trump 44
Biden 38
Kennedy 10

Trump 45
Biden 38
Kennedy 9
West 2
Stein 1

Franklin & Marshall
Pennsylvania General Election:
Biden 48
Trump 38

Biden 42
Trump 40
Kennedy 9
Stein 3

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Tue Apr 09, 2024 12:17 am

April 8

I&I / TIPP
General Election:
Biden 43
Trump 40

Trump 38
Biden 38
Kennedy 11
West 2
Stein 1

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Tue Apr 09, 2024 11:32 pm

April 9

Morning Consult
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 43

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Wed Apr 10, 2024 11:56 pm

April 10

Reuters / Ipsos
General Election:
Biden 41
Trump 37

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Trump 43
Biden 42
Kennedy 3
West 1
Stein 0

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 43
Democrats 43

KSTP-TV Minneapolis-St. Paul / Survey USA
Minnesota General Election:
Biden 44
Trump 42

Quinnipiac
North Carolina General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 46

Trump 41
Biden 38
Kennedy 12
West 3
Stein 3

Honeyman · Post by **Honeyman** » Thu Apr 11, 2024 12:51 am

https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-dona ... 24-1888914

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Fri Apr 12, 2024 2:43 am

Honeyman wrote: ↑
Thu Apr 11, 2024 12:51 am
https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-dona ... 24-1888914

Not much from Beemer on the subject lately…

April 12

Emerson
Florida General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 38

Trump 49
Biden 35
Kennedy 6
West 1
Stein 1

High Point University
North Carolina General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 42

PPIC
California General Election:
Biden 54
Trump 31

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Fri Apr 12, 2024 11:22 pm

April 12

Cygnal
Texas General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 42

Trump 46
Biden 37
Kennedy 8
Stein 2
West 1

Rate This · Post by **Rate This** » Sat Apr 13, 2024 10:39 pm

April 13

New York Times / Siena
General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 46

Trump 43
Biden 42
Kennedy 2
West 1
Stein 1

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