Acceptable registrations in the queue through May 29 at 11:00p ET have now been activated. Enjoy! -M.W.
Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619
Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619
2022 Midterm Polling Thread
2022 Midterm Polling Thread
Well... We are getting close to kicking off the general election... happening after Labor Day passes more or less. I'm up for whatever ridicule I get if these end up being horribly wrong (2020 was more or less within the + or - 3 margin of error in the "wrong" spots.) I'm gonna include the generic ballot, senate and governors races. The house tends to be A) hard to poll and B) a lot of work figuring out whats competitive or not. So sticking to statewide races. If bmw or somebody wants to figure out (or put money on) the house.. Have fun. There isn't a hell of a lot of race specific data yet so I'll go back to August 1st:
August 1
Harvard-Harris
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 50 Democrats 50
August 3
Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 39
Insider Advantage
Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 45 Democrats 44
Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45 Republicans 43
Monmouth University
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 49 Republicans 46
August 5
Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 43
August 10
Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 38
Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 43
August 11
FOX News
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 41 Democrats 41
August 12
Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 43
August 14
Dallas Morning News
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 51 Beto O'Rourke (D) 41
August 1
Harvard-Harris
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 50 Democrats 50
August 3
Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 39
Insider Advantage
Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 45 Democrats 44
Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45 Republicans 43
Monmouth University
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 49 Republicans 46
August 5
Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 43
August 10
Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 38
Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 43
August 11
FOX News
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 41 Democrats 41
August 12
Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 43
August 14
Dallas Morning News
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 51 Beto O'Rourke (D) 41
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
I was reading some article on Bloomberg Businessweek online.
Whoever wrote it seem to be assuming the Republicans will take both the House and the Senate.
It really caught me how it was being stated like it was a given. Weird.
I'd link it but it was almost a week ago. I'd have to do too much swimming thru their site to find it.
Whoever wrote it seem to be assuming the Republicans will take both the House and the Senate.
It really caught me how it was being stated like it was a given. Weird.
I'd link it but it was almost a week ago. I'd have to do too much swimming thru their site to find it.
- FakeAndyStuart
- Posts: 497
- Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:07 pm
- Location: MOVED! Now residing in CurmudgeonLand
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
With gerrymandered districts and uneven distribution of the panel, generic Congressional polls are a waste of time and ink/pixels.
Let's dive into the one specific poll you posted -
Some interesting things - the 51/41 is only with voters who SAY they are "CERTAIN" to vote. From voters "CERTAIN and/or LIKELY" the split is 48/41 which is close to within the margin of error ( ~ 3%).
And a majority of Texans are in favor of strengthening some gun laws, including buy backs for semi automatic weapons.
And we are still 2 3/4 months away. Very enlightening.
Let's dive into the one specific poll you posted -
You can actually parse the actual numbers here - https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscienc ... ug2022.pdfDallas Morning News
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 51 Beto O'Rourke (D) 41
Some interesting things - the 51/41 is only with voters who SAY they are "CERTAIN" to vote. From voters "CERTAIN and/or LIKELY" the split is 48/41 which is close to within the margin of error ( ~ 3%).
And a majority of Texans are in favor of strengthening some gun laws, including buy backs for semi automatic weapons.
And we are still 2 3/4 months away. Very enlightening.
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
Abbott will win Texas. I say that with 100% confidence.
Republicans will win the House. I say that with 100% confidence.
The Senate is another story. I can't remember my original prediction from several months ago, but I think it was 51-49 R. I'm flipping that to 51-49 D.
Republicans will win the House. I say that with 100% confidence.
The Senate is another story. I can't remember my original prediction from several months ago, but I think it was 51-49 R. I'm flipping that to 51-49 D.
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
I am viewing what goes on in Texas from a far outsider, but I think it makes more sense for Beto to be hammering Abbot on the Texas electric grid, and tone down his anti-gun rhetoric.
The censorship king from out of state.
- FakeAndyStuart
- Posts: 497
- Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:07 pm
- Location: MOVED! Now residing in CurmudgeonLand
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
Abbot will probably win in a squeaker.. barring another attack on a school or church.bmw wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:04 pmAbbott will win Texas. I say that with 100% confidence.
Republicans will win the House. I say that with 100% confidence.
The Senate is another story. I can't remember my original prediction from several months ago, but I think it was 51-49 R. I'm flipping that to 51-49 D.
R's will win House again by a squeaker, and summarily throw it away two years later with tons of revenge investigations and 2020 election denying that will prevent them from actually accomplishing anything
Senate - toss up. But it might actually be 53-47 D (Ohio, Penn and Wisc just might flip and everything else a wash.)
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
According to Fox News, Demings up 4 vs. Little Marco.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/deming ... r-new-poll
DISCLAIMER: My ardent #1 political belief is that Florida ALWAYS will disappoint the Democrats.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/deming ... r-new-poll
DISCLAIMER: My ardent #1 political belief is that Florida ALWAYS will disappoint the Democrats.
The censorship king from out of state.
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
Interesting… I wonder who is gonna face DeSantis? Either the Agriculture commissioner or Charlie Crist… I’ve made it a policy for the next couple weeks to not post about states where the match isn’t set yet. Florida has its primary next week. But the Demings-Rubio match looks certain.Honeyman wrote: ↑Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:25 pmAccording to Fox News, Demings up 4 vs. Little Marco.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/deming ... r-new-poll
DISCLAIMER: My ardent #1 political belief is that Florida ALWAYS will disappoint the Democrats.
- MotorCityRadioFreak
- Posts: 6532
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:26 am
- Location: Warren, MI
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
As I said in the other thread, I expect PA to flip and that’s it for the Senate.
I expect the GOP to flip 20 seats in the House. Not sure how that affects the balance, but it is what it is.
I expect the GOP to flip 20 seats in the House. Not sure how that affects the balance, but it is what it is.
They/them, non-binary and proud.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
That would be a majority of 15 in the house for the GOP. The Democrat majority is 5 right now.MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑Wed Aug 17, 2022 3:39 amAs I said in the other thread, I expect PA to flip and that’s it for the Senate.
I expect the GOP to flip 20 seats in the House. Not sure how that affects the balance, but it is what it is.
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
August 17
Emerson
Ohio Senate:
J.D. Vance (R) 45 Tim Ryan (D) 42
Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 49 Nan Whaley (D) 33
Marquette University
Wisconsin Senate:
Mandela Barnes (D) 51 Ron Johnson (R) 44
Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 45 Tim Michels (R) 43
Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45 Republicans 39
Trafalgar Group
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 42
Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46 Republicans 42
Interesting to note that the current average in the generic ballot is Democrats +0.2. This is only the second time since polling on this question was first done in 1990 that the incumbent party had an edge this late. The other year it happened was 2018.
Wisconsin is definately in play in the senate. Ron Johnson is a poor fit for Wisconsin.
Emerson
Ohio Senate:
J.D. Vance (R) 45 Tim Ryan (D) 42
Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 49 Nan Whaley (D) 33
Marquette University
Wisconsin Senate:
Mandela Barnes (D) 51 Ron Johnson (R) 44
Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 45 Tim Michels (R) 43
Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45 Republicans 39
Trafalgar Group
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 42
Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46 Republicans 42
Interesting to note that the current average in the generic ballot is Democrats +0.2. This is only the second time since polling on this question was first done in 1990 that the incumbent party had an edge this late. The other year it happened was 2018.
Wisconsin is definately in play in the senate. Ron Johnson is a poor fit for Wisconsin.
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
How'd that one go?
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
My point… something for everybody in that statistic. Though I don’t think the parties were neck and neck in enthusiasm as they are now. Democrats have gained a lot of ground in that department closing that gap while Republicans have stayed the same. If the trend continues before long Democrats will be more fired up and likely to vote. This is no ordinary election.
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
August 18
Fabrizio / Anzalone
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 51 Tudor Dixon (R) 46
FOX News
Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 49 Tim Michels (R) 46
Wisconsin Governor:
Mandela Barnes (D) 50 Ron Johnson (R) 46
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 50 Blake Masters (R) 42
Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 47 Kari Lake (R) 44
Civitas / Cygnal
North Carolina Senate:
Ted Budd (R) 42 Cherie Beasley (D) 42
Fabrizio / Anzalone
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 51 Tudor Dixon (R) 46
FOX News
Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 49 Tim Michels (R) 46
Wisconsin Governor:
Mandela Barnes (D) 50 Ron Johnson (R) 46
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 50 Blake Masters (R) 42
Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 47 Kari Lake (R) 44
Civitas / Cygnal
North Carolina Senate:
Ted Budd (R) 42 Cherie Beasley (D) 42
Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread
August 19
Trafalgar Group
Nevada Senate:
Adam Laxalt (R) 47 Catherine Cotez Masto (D) 44
Nevada Governor:
Joe Lombardo (R) 46 Steve Sisolak (D) 44
Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 41
August 21
Trafalgar Group
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 48 Mehmet Oz (R) 44
Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 49 Doug Mastriano (R) 45
Reno Gazette-Journal / Suffolk University
Nevada Senate:
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 45 Adam Laxalt (R) 38
Nevada Governor:
Steve Sisolak (D) 43 Joe Lombardo (R) 40
NBC News
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 45
August 22
Trafalgar Group
Ohio Senate:
J.D. Vance (R) 50 Tim Ryan (D) 45
Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 54 Nan Whaley (D) 38
Trafalgar Group
Nevada Senate:
Adam Laxalt (R) 47 Catherine Cotez Masto (D) 44
Nevada Governor:
Joe Lombardo (R) 46 Steve Sisolak (D) 44
Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 41
August 21
Trafalgar Group
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 48 Mehmet Oz (R) 44
Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 49 Doug Mastriano (R) 45
Reno Gazette-Journal / Suffolk University
Nevada Senate:
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 45 Adam Laxalt (R) 38
Nevada Governor:
Steve Sisolak (D) 43 Joe Lombardo (R) 40
NBC News
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 45
August 22
Trafalgar Group
Ohio Senate:
J.D. Vance (R) 50 Tim Ryan (D) 45
Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 54 Nan Whaley (D) 38