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Election predictions thread

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Matt
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by Matt » Mon Nov 07, 2022 9:52 pm

I'm not making predictions this year, but I find it fascinating that we have an OG election denier on the ballot in GA and there have been no predictions on whether she will accept her second defeat.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by bmw » Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:36 am

Here are the polling average baselines as they stand today for the purpose of our bet:

+1.4 Walker - Georgia (you are so lucky they dropped the Warnock +6 poll from the average today
+6.2 Budd - North Carolina (ouch for me, I didn't know it had gotten this high)
+3.4 Lexalt - Nevada (same here - I'm worried about this margin)
+0.4 Oz - Pennsylvania
+0.3 Masters - Arizona

And while we never clarified this - the Georgia race margin, if it goes to a runoff, will be determined how? Original vote tonight or runoff? You make the call on this one before 8 PM tonight RT, I'm fine with using either. If you don't chime in, I'm going to say tonight's original vote tally is what counts.



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Rate This
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by Rate This » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:16 am

bmw wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:36 am
Here are the polling average baselines as they stand today for the purpose of our bet:

+1.4 Walker - Georgia (you are so lucky they dropped the Warnock +6 poll from the average today
+6.2 Budd - North Carolina (ouch for me, I didn't know it had gotten this high)
+3.4 Lexalt - Nevada (same here - I'm worried about this margin)
+0.4 Oz - Pennsylvania
+0.3 Masters - Arizona

And while we never clarified this - the Georgia race margin, if it goes to a runoff, will be determined how? Original vote tonight or runoff? You make the call on this one before 8 PM tonight RT, I'm fine with using either. If you don't chime in, I'm going to say tonight's original vote tally is what counts.
Let’s use tonight’s, the suspense would be unbearable if we wait until December…

Are we using RCP numbers here?



bmw
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by bmw » Tue Nov 08, 2022 10:54 am

Those are the RCP polling averages. So per our bet, the candidate must win by a full tenth of a point more than those numbers over the opponent. In 3 of the 5 races anyways. If any of the results are really close to those - like, within a tenth or a few tenths, then we may need to wait for the official results to be fully tallied which may take some time.



Matt
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:07 am

bmw wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 9:36 am
Here are the polling average baselines as they stand today for the purpose of our bet:

+1.4 Walker - Georgia (you are so lucky they dropped the Warnock +6 poll from the average today
+6.2 Budd - North Carolina (ouch for me, I didn't know it had gotten this high)
+3.4 Lexalt - Nevada (same here - I'm worried about this margin)
+0.4 Oz - Pennsylvania
+0.3 Masters - Arizona

And while we never clarified this - the Georgia race margin, if it goes to a runoff, will be determined how? Original vote tonight or runoff? You make the call on this one before 8 PM tonight RT, I'm fine with using either. If you don't chime in, I'm going to say tonight's original vote tally is what counts.
What is the orange hippo's response going to be if there is a GA run off?


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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teetoppz28
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by teetoppz28 » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:24 am

Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:07 am
What is the orange hippo's response going to be if there is a GA run off?
Thanks. Now I have to clean my monitor of the coffee I just spit... :rollin


Dropping knowledge on forum MAGAts.
Unapologetically intellectually superior.

zzand
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by zzand » Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:31 am

I would be shocked if there isn't a run off. Isn't it 50 percent plus 1 vote? As for polls, after 2016 I don't trust any of them. The only numbers that mean anything are vote totals.



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Rate This
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by Rate This » Tue Nov 08, 2022 12:47 pm

zzand wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 11:31 am
I would be shocked if there isn't a run off. Isn't it 50 percent plus 1 vote? As for polls, after 2016 I don't trust any of them. The only numbers that mean anything are vote totals.
Yes 50% plus 1 vote gets you home free. 49.999% or less and we’ll spend $1 Billion + between now and December.



bmw
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by bmw » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:48 pm

My portfolio is looking pretty good so far.

Image



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Rate This
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by Rate This » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:51 pm

bmw wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:48 pm
My portfolio is looking pretty good so far.

Image
Can you elaborate on your exact picks for each of those?

Also since RCP keeps putting it in my face with a well written why bother clicking when it tells you all you need to know headline... Newt Gingrich went on Hannity's FOX show Friday and gave the following prediction:
Republicans go +3 to +5 in the senate and win NH, NV, AZ and GA with no runoff and pick up 45 seats in the house. My... he's confident.



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Colonel Flagg
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by Colonel Flagg » Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:52 pm

Bryce wrote:
Mon Nov 07, 2022 2:49 pm
TC Talks wrote:
Mon Nov 07, 2022 1:46 pm
audiophile wrote:
Mon Nov 07, 2022 1:20 pm
I don't know any republicans that will answer a poll...
I don't know any democrat with a land line.
TurkeyTop is a Socialist. Pretty much the same thing as a Democrat. He only has a landline. Of course he is Canadian, so that may not count.
Colonel Flagg still has a landline, but you didn't hear it from me. :smokin

I thought I read somewhere that Turkey top carries a "burner phone"... but that's off the record, of course.


"Pretty soon, every kid in America will wish he were me"

bmw
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by bmw » Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:00 pm

Rate This wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 2:51 pm
Can you elaborate on your exact picks for each of those?
$100 to win $356 - Republicans hold exactly 53 Seats
$850 to win $970 - NO on Dems winning both House & Senate
$212 to win $304 - Republicans to contorl Senate
$414 to win $772 - Oz to win PA
$850 to win $985 - Republicans to control House
$346 to win $440 - Vance to win OH Senate seat
$18 to win $92 - Dixon to win MI Governor
$42 to win $94 - Republican to win NH Senate seat
$148 to win $158 - Republican to win GA Governor race
$224 to win $256 - Republican to win Utah Senate seat
$14 to win $24 - Republican to win Kansas Governor race

Potential profit - $1233

I'm expecting to profit $750 to $850 as I know a few of those are long-shots. Republicans getting exactly 53 would be the icing on the cake.



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Honeyman
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by Honeyman » Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:06 pm

Will this be the last year for that and similar sites, beemer? I thought either you mentioned that, or I read it somewhere.


The censorship king from out of state.

bmw
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Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Election predictions thread

Post by bmw » Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:15 pm

Honeyman wrote:
Tue Nov 08, 2022 3:06 pm
Will this be the last year for that and similar sites, beemer? I thought either you mentioned that, or I read it somewhere.
The feds have ordered them to be shut down by February. They have sued and currently have a request for preliminary injunction to block the shutdown on a judge's desk. I've read through the lawsuit and the applicable laws - and I'm no lawyer, but I think PredictIt has a pretty good case. But then again, they're fighting the federal government.



bmw
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Re: Election predictions thread

Post by bmw » Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:20 am

Ok RT - I concede. Either post your pic here or PM it to me. I will keep it as my profile pic from Nov. 13 to 26.

You certainly had a better handle on these midterms than I did. I thought the Republicans had enough of the traditional metrics strongly on their side, but there were obviously other over-riding factors including abortion and Trump-fatigue.



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