The Republicans Are Going to Win Big Nationally

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

The fact that gas prices are rising so quickly everywhere is causing a big problem for Democrats. OPEC is certainly going to influence the election. Add to the fact that we have Putin amping up nuclear threats, and it lends itself to Guiliani national security conservatives. They will be motivated to get out.

I said 30 seats in Congress would flip, but I think it will be 40-45.

I think the Senate will have a GOP net of 2 seats as well now as opposed to the Democratic gain of 1 seat I had predicted before. Walker is close enough in the polls to flip GA despite his controversy. And I think there will be a bad surprise somewhere else.

It’s time for the Democrats to start anti trust proceedings for big business gouging. If they think abortion and overturning pot convictions will provide enough enthusiasm for moderates, they are misguided.

By the way, I still think Gretchen will win. I expect Dana Nessel to lose, and Benson is a toss up.

[Matt]

I hope there is a red tsunami and it sweeps incompetent Whitmer back to EL. She is most likely to lose of the three incompetents.

[bmw]

Using the RealClearPolitics map as a starting point, Republicans are virtually guaranteed to win the House. However, I don't think they'll pick up 40+ seats. Their ceiling is in the low 40s, and that requires them to take nearly all 35 toss-ups. It just depends on the size of the wave. I think this goes right down the middle on the toss-ups, so I'll say Republicans pick up between 20 and 30 House seats.

The Senate is more interesting. Right now RCP has it 47-46 R (though I would put Ohio into the toss-ups, even though it probably goes R, making it a 46-46 tie) with the following toss-ups:

Arizona
Georgia
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

I say New Hampshire goes blue, North Carolina and Wisconsin go red, making it 49-47 red with 4 states determining the balance of power.

Arizona is the state that is slipping from the Dems. 3 weeks ago I would have said it was solid blue, but from everything I've read, Kelly had a DISASTROUS debate performance. This is now a toss-up, still favoring the Dems, but they're in trouble.

Nevada leaning red. Their state was hurt badly by the Covid restrictions, and lots of polling suggests Nevada may be a reliably red state in the next few elections.

Georgia - easily the most talked about race right now. What people aren't talking about is that if nobody hits 50%, it goes to a runoff, and the dynamics of a runoff would depend on whether the Balance of Power in the Senate is at stake.

Pennsylvania - all polling suggests safe blue, but it may hinge on Fetterman's debate performance in a few weeks. I won't be surprised if he backs out and refuses to debate Oz.

So bottom line for me is this - if Nevada goes red, then Republicans need one of either AZ, GA, or PA to take control. I'm not ready to make a prediction on those 3 states.

And lastly, since Matt beat me to responding, I'll say it now - Whitmer WILL win re-election. Probably by 6 to 8 points.

[bmw]

As an aside, the one thing that could lead to a gigantic red tsunami is if there are a record number of Republicans (disgruntled over 2020) that aren't answering polls. This is a complete unknown right now, but if Republicans do significantly outperform the polls nationally, this will be why.

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As an aside, the one thing that could lead to a gigantic red tsunami is if there are a record number of Republicans (disgruntled over 2020) that aren't answering polls. This is a complete unknown right now, but if Republicans do significantly outperform the polls nationally, this will be why.

That’s basically the $64 question. Though Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof right now and is slightly higher than Republican enthusiasm. I wouldn’t discount abortion driving people out. And there are more Democratic leaners than Republican leaners on the whole. The problem for a long time has been that Democrats simply don’t show up in the midterms. If that’s changing then we don’t get a red wave. I think the Republicans may end up with a 5-10 seat majority in the house. Nevada is probably going red. Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina are true toss-ups. Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania probably go blue. This may end up more like 1998 or 2002 than say 1994 or 2010. My guess is that the Republicans end up around 225 and the Democrats end up at 51-52.

Although I use RCP for polling they do include some polls that don’t make sense. Emerson has had a clear Republican bias this cycle. Trafalgar has come up with some astoundingly whackadoodle polls too… the Republican Gubernatorial candidate down 2 in New York? Really???

The site itself is also clearly fairly right wing.

Here in Michigan I expect all 3 to win in a walk on the strength of turnout on the abortion issue. Since Dobbs was decided the Democrats have outperformed the partisan makeup of the district in every special election that’s been held. And the stunning result in Kansas as well as polls in places the Democrats have no business being competitive in like North Dakota At Large being a 4 point contest (!)… something is up.

[bmw]

Wisconsin and North Carolina both have better odds of going red than Georgia and Pennsylvania have of going blue, at least according to gamblers.

The Democrats won't get to 52 in the Senate - I'm confident enough to say you can take that prediction to the bank. And frankly I think 51 is a long-shot.

And I don't discount the abortion issue. I think this alone costs Republicans some races. How many remains to be seen.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I hope there is a red tsunami and it sweeps incompetent Whitmer back to EL. She is most likely to lose of the three incompetents.

She’s up between 15-18% polling over Dixon.

Dana is the one who barely won last election. DePerno is already spending money and has a bigger war chest than Dixon. Dixon’ s only hope is that Gretchen missteps at the debates. Benson is also vulnerable because she fucked up the appointment system during the pandemic.

Whitmer has an approval rating between 50-53%.

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Wisconsin and North Carolina both have better odds of going red than Georgia and Pennsylvania have of going blue, at least according to gamblers.

The Democrats won't get to 52 in the Senate - I'm confident enough to say you can take that prediction to the bank. And frankly I think 51 is a long-shot.

And I don't discount the abortion issue. I think this alone costs Republicans some races. How many remains to be seen.

You really think doctor Senator Oz is plausible?

[Matt]

I hope there is a red tsunami and it sweeps incompetent Whitmer back to EL. She is most likely to lose of the three incompetents.

She’s up between 15-18% polling over Dixon.

Dana is the one who barely won last election. DePerno is already spending money and has a bigger war chest than Dixon. Dixon’ s only hope is that Gretchen missteps at the debates. Benson is also vulnerable because she fucked up the appointment system during the pandemic.

Whitmer has an approval rating between 50-53%.

From RT's polling thread:

Michigan News Source / Trafalgar
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 51
Tudor Dixon (R) 45

Three term Governor Jim Blanchard says hi with his clear and easy 1990 win.

[Matt]

Carpetbagger Slotkin should be ousted, but will she be?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/elissa ... -two-years

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Carpetbagger Slotkin should be ousted, but will she be?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/elissa ... -two-years

The last poll we had put her up 17… she also may be the most conservative Democrat in the house. Remember they threw East Lansing into the new boundaries of that district.

[craig11152]

That’s basically the $64 question.

Since this is a numbers post I might suggest, based on inflation since 1940, the question is now $1354.

[Rate This]

That’s basically the $64 question.

Since this is a numbers post I might suggest, based on inflation since 1940, the question is now $1354.

The prize for guessing right is a sticker out of a Cracker Jack box. Gotta be worth $64 at this rate. Point taken however

[Deleted User 15846]

The fact that gas prices are rising so quickly everywhere is causing a big problem for Democrats. OPEC is certainly going to influence the election. Add to the fact that we have Putin amping up nuclear threats, and it lends itself to Guiliani national security conservatives. They will be motivated to get out.

I said 30 seats in Congress would flip, but I think it will be 40-45.

I think the Senate will have a GOP net of 2 seats as well now as opposed to the Democratic gain of 1 seat I had predicted before. Walker is close enough in the polls to flip GA despite his controversy. And I think there will be a bad surprise somewhere else.

It’s time for the Democrats to start anti trust proceedings for big business gouging. If they think abortion and overturning pot convictions will provide enough enthusiasm for moderates, they are misguided.

By the way, I still think Gretchen will win. I expect Dana Nessel to lose, and Benson is a toss up.

I believe it's going to be a split decision. Unfortunately, The US House, do to Gerrymandering may flip.

The biggest thing may very well be governorships, with women's rights being dealt a hard blow and likely gay/trans rights is next on the block, once again the blue states will have to uphold rights of individuals who arn't white and strait.

I refuse to vote for any party that denies Climate Change, Science, pushes baseless conspiracy theories, is anti vax, anti women, anti LGBTQ, believes in more tax breaks for the rich, is anti gun reform, and is pro-russian.

However, I suspect enough foolish sheeple will fall for it.

Btw, just for my own information, I did look up Nessel and Benson, polls show them way ahead. Whitmer, it appears will beat Dixon by a good margin.

[bmw]

Unfortunately, The US House, do to Gerrymandering may flip.

So if Republicans take the House, it will be due to cheating? Can I then call YOU an election denier?