Actually I said that not much has changed since the abortion vote in KANSAS. That was in August. So there has been no event that points to that momentum changing. Before that we had several special elections where the Democrat way outperformed the PVI of the district. I mean 5-10 or more points outperformed.bmw wrote: ↑Wed Oct 19, 2022 9:41 amThere's a laundry list of reasons, but I'll name a few that I think are factors:
-The overturning of Roe isn't the end of abortion "rights" in this country, and I think women are coming around to realizing that.
-Gas prices have been elevated for a while now, and despite a modest drop during the summer, are going back up with no end in sight.
-Inflation is a real problem that affects everyone. Biden's only response has been interest rate hikes, and at least thus far, those aren't having a visible impact.
-Supply chain shortages, while easing somewhat, aren't resolving as fast as most people would like.
-While not a primary reason, I think the escalating situation in Ukraine isn't helping.
-Crime is up in a lot of places, and the Democrat party isn't exactly the party that is tough on crime.
There's also factors in some specific races:
-PA - While Oz isn't particularly popular there, people are finally seeing just how bad Fetterman's cognitive state really is. Also, Fetterman is very far to the left politically - moreso than the average PA voter.
-GA - Walker did have a slight polling lead before the media unleashed its fury on him. I think the timing of that unleashing was too early and Walker is already recovering from it.
-AZ - The Democrat in that race had a really poor debate performance.
-NV - Vegas was very negatively affected by all of the Covid lockdowns that lasted way longer than they should have.
-The border situation is most certainly an issue in the states closest to the border.
Ultimately - the Democrat's biggest problem is that we're now seeing a prolonged period of the all-too-predictable consequences of the Democrats in power over-reacting to Covid, and those same politicians don't seem to have answers to any of this. RT says not much has changed since Roe was overturned - and I would suggest that that is precisely the problem.
Fetterman used closed captions to make sure he understood the questions. Lots of people do that in professional settings and apparently 75+% of Gen Z uses subtitles. Who knew? That’s hardly disqualifying. Our resident quack (Oz) is exploiting it as best he can though.
By all accounts I’ve read Mark Kelly didn’t do that bad in his debate in Arizona. Walker has never led in Georgia… there may have been a few right leaning polls showing a lead but overall? No. The abortion thing seems to have taken a couple points out of his hide. That was started by his son by the way… and he’s a right wing online commentator. So before you blame the media understand that it’s not their creation. Nevada goes red for exactly the reason you stated. No argument here.
Understand too that in a second Trump term with the roles reversed the Orange one would be struggling just as badly with inflation and gas prices both of which he has little control over. And it’s the Fed that hiked rates not Biden. He has no say… the Fed does Fed things basically.
