2022 Midterm Polling Thread

[Deleted User 15846]

Kansas has had a share of both Republican and Democrat governors over the years, but has failed to send a Democrat to The Senate since George McGill, whom served in the senate during the 1930s.

Oklahoma, it's been mainly Republican but Brad Henry(A moderate Democrat) who served from 2003-2011 was quite popular. He won his 2006 race, carrying every county but the 3 in the pan handle. In 2002 it was close but Henry beat Steve Largent by about a point and a half, if I recall there was an Independent in the race that year.

Both Democrats running for the senate, 1 in the special and the other in the regular, both candidates last name is Horn. However, Lankford will win by a wide margin as will The Republican, Markwayne Mullin.

The governors race seems to be quite a different story indeed, I'm not giving my hopes up but nothing is impossible at this stage of the game. The far right has alienated many, even some loyal GOP voters and in these governors races, I believe there will be some big surprises in store. The fact we are even discussing Oklahoma as competitive really says something coupled with the pro-choice vote in Kansas. It could really be Roe-vember, with 4 weeks away, we shall see.

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October 9

CBS News / YouGov
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 53
Tudor Dixon (R) 47

Wisconsin Senate:
Ron Johnson (R) 50
Mandela Barnes (D) 49

Wisconsin Governor:
Tim Michels (R) 50
Tony Evers (D) 50

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October 10

American Greatness / Cygnal
Ohio Senate:
J.D. Vance (R) 46
Tim Ryan (D) 44

Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 57
Nan Whaley (D) 35

PPP
New Mexico Governor:
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 48
Mark Ronchetti (R) 40

KOB-TV / Survey USA
New Mexico Governor:
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 53
Mark Ronchetti (R) 37

[TC Talks]

Here's an interesting article about NYTimes polling methodology...

Given that pollsters are relying on calling people on the phone (per your methodology description at the bottom of the poll), how do you know where they are, and how do you account for the fact that so few people answer their phones at all anymore? I for one have moved twice since I got my current phone number, most recently to a different state, so my phone number has nothing to do with my actual location. Meanwhile, most of my calls are spam, so I almost never answer my phone unless I recognize the phone number — and I am someone who is old enough to have grown up with what is now called a landline. My teenage kids almost never answer their phones at all. The only people I know who still ever use a landline at all are my parents. — Doug Berman, West Jordan, Utah

There are a lot of good points here, so let’s take it bit by bit.

How do we know where they are? Some pollsters (like us) call voters from a list of telephone numbers on a voter registration file, a big data set containing the names and addresses of every registered voter in most states. The addresses tell us “where they are” with a great deal of precision.

How do we deal with people who have moved? The voter file offers a solution to this problem as well. Once you’ve registered to vote in your new state, pollsters can call your phone number if it’s on the voter file — and call it regardless of whether it’s an in-state or out-of-state area code.

How do you account for the fact that few people answer? Before I respond, I want to dwell on just how few people are answering. In the poll we have in the field right now, only 0.4 percent of dials have yielded a completed interview. If you were employed as one of our interviewers at a call center, you would have to dial numbers for two hours to get a single completed interview.

No, it wasn’t nearly this bad six, four or even two years ago. You can see for yourself that around 1.6 percent of dials yielded a completed interview in our 2018 polling.

The Times has more resources than most organizations, but this is getting pretty close to “death of telephone polling” numbers. You start wondering how much more expensive it would be to try even ridiculous options like old-fashioned door-to-door, face-to-face, in-person interviews.

Call screening is definitely part of the problem, but if you screen your calls almost 100 percent of the time, it might be a little less of one than you might think. About one-fifth of our dials still contact a human. But once we do reach a person, we’ve got a number of challenges. Is this the right human? (We talk only to people named on the file, so that we can use their information.) If it is the right person, will he or she participate? Probably not, unfortunately.

OK, back to the question: What do we do to account for this? The main thing is we make sure that the sample of people we do reach is demographically and politically representative, and if not, we adjust it to match the known characteristics of the population. If we poll a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by two percentage points, and our respondents wind up being registered Democrats by a four-point margin, we give a little less weight to the Democratic respondents.

We make similar adjustments for race; age; education; how often people have voted; where they live; marital status; homeownership; and more. As I explained last month, we believe our polls provide valuable election information. Is all of this enough? After 2020, it’s hard not to wonder whether the people who answer the phone might be more likely to back Democrats than those who don’t answer the phone. We’re conducting some expensive multi-method research this fall to help answer this question, to the extent we can. We’ll tell you more at a later time.

What about cellphones? Finally, an easy one: We call cellphones and landlines! About three-quarters of our calls go to cellphones nowadays — including nearly every call to young people.

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So last week we had a remarkably close race in Oklahoma for Governor. Now we have Kristi Noem in South Dakota only up by 4. I still say something is up... South Dakota has had a Republican Governor since 1979.

October 11

Detroit News / WDIV-TV
Michigan 10th District U.S. House Race:
John James (R) 44
Carl Marlinga (D) 36

Trafalgar Group
Georgia Senate:
Raphael Warnock (D) 46
Herschel Walker (R) 45

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 53
Stacey Abrams (D) 44

The Hill / Emerson
Georgia Senate:
Raphael Warnock (D) 48
Herschel Walker (R) 46

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 51
Stacey Abrams (D) 46

Georgia 2024:
Trump 45
Biden 43

Marist
Colorado Senate:
Michael Bennett (D) 49
Joe O'Dea (R) 43

Colorado Governor:
Jared Polis (D) 54
Heidi Ganahl (R) 39

Deseret News / Hinckley Institute
Utah Senate:
Mike Lee (R) 42
Evan McMullin (I) 37

Boston Globe / Suffolk
Rhode Island Governor:
Dan McKee (D) 46
Ashley Kalus (R) 36

South Dakota State University
South Dakota Governor:
Kristi Noem (R) 45
Jamie Smith (D) 41

South Dakota Senate:
John Thune (R) 53
Brian Bengs (D) 28

Sooner Poll
Oklahoma Senate:
James Lankford (R) 52
Madison Horn (D) 40

Oklahoma Senate Special Election:
Markwayne Mullin (R) 51
Kendra Horn (D) 42

October 12

Marquette
Wisconsin Senate:
Ron Johnson (R) 52
Mandela Barnes (D) 46

Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 47
Tim Michels (R) 46

Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Georgia Senate:
Raphael Warnock (D) 46
Herschel Walker (R) 43

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 51
Stacey Abrams (D) 41

Quinnipiac
Georgia Senate:
Raphael Warnock (D) 52
Herschel Walker (R) 45

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 50
Stacey Abrams (D) 49

USA Today / Suffolk
Nevada Senate:
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 46
Adam Laxalt (R) 44

Nevada Governor:
Joe Lombardo (R) 44
Steve Sisolak (D) 43

Fabrizio / Anzalone
New Hampshire Senate:
Maggie Hassan (D) 52
Don Bolduc (R) 45

New Hampshire Governor:
Chris Sununu (R) 55
Tom Sherman (D) 41

Marist
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 52
Beto O'Rourke (D) 45

KGTV-TV / Survey USA
California Senate:
Alex Padilla (D) 56
Mark Meuser (R) 34

California Governor:
Gavin Newsom (D) 57
Brian Dahle (R) 35

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 46

Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46
Republicans 42

[Matt]

Noem won by 4 points in her first election.

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Noem won by 4 points in her first election.

The closest since 1986. Again nobody expected her to be struggling in this one. She should be cruising to another term. Checking my calendar reveals this to be 2022 and not 2018… they are fundamentally different years. She won by 4 in a blue wave year. She’s up by 4 in what should be a red wave year… but it’s increasingly looking like that won’t be the case.

[bmw]

Marist has Schumer down to just +13 in the New York Senate race (52-39). Considering Schumer won by 43 points the last time around, and even though he is basically certain to win this time around, that is a drop that has to be concerning to Democrats.

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Marist has Schumer down to just +13 in the New York Senate race (52-39). Considering Schumer won by 43 points the last time around, and even though he is basically certain to win this time around, that is a drop that has to be concerning to Democrats.

Certainly possible. It’s interesting how we are getting concerning numbers for BOTH sides depending on the place. This may be one unique midterm with no modern comparison…

[bmw]

What is bizarre about it is how the generic polling has been trending marginally blue since mid-summer but yet how individual races are moving towards red. I don't know what to make of that. I do think the undecideds are going to break red on election day due to the economy isn't going to magically be all better by then. I also still want to know how many "hidden" Republican voters there are who will quietly vote R without having responded to any polls.

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What is bizarre about it is how the generic polling has been trending marginally blue since mid-summer but yet how individual races are moving towards red. I don't know what to make of that. I do think the undecideds are going to break red on election day due to the economy isn't going to magically be all better by then. I also still want to know how many "hidden" Republican voters there are who will quietly vote R without having responded to any polls.

Agreed… it looks like taking Tuesday and Wednesday off to watch the returns is the right plan.

Then there’s Michael Moore… he’s the guy who called 2016 for Trump way before most other folks thought there was any hope. Now he’s forecasting a blue tsunami… I don’t buy it but then again he was right on something that looked laughable before and he does have the pulse of blue collar folks down well…

[bmw]

I saw Moore's predictions on Bill Maher's program a few weeks ago. I think he's going to be in for a rude awakening the morning after election night.

btw - I also called for a Trump victory in 2016 early on, even in the face of a lot of mocking for that prediction - even from you. I don't see a red tsunami, but I do see them taking the House by 20 or so seats and I'm starting to think they have a good chance of pulling the upset in either GA, PA, or AZ. One of 3 of those, assuming all else goes per the polls, would put them at 51. Frankly I think Fetterman in PA is in big trouble. Even I had no idea just how bad his cognitive abilities were until I saw him giving an interview where he can barely interpret questions being asked to him by ear - he has to read them typed out on a screen. That's not somebody ready to be a Senator.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I saw Moore's predictions on Bill Maher's program a few weeks ago. I think he's going to be in for a rude awakening the morning after election night.

btw - I also called for a Trump victory in 2016 early on, even in the face of a lot of mocking for that prediction - even from you. I don't see a red tsunami, but I do see them taking the House by 20 or so seats and I'm starting to think they have a good chance of pulling the upset in either GA, PA, or AZ. One of 3 of those, assuming all else goes per the polls, would put them at 51. Frankly I think Fetterman in PA is in big trouble. Even I had no idea just how bad his cognitive abilities were until I saw him giving an interview where he can barely interpret questions being asked to him by ear - he has to read them typed out on a screen. That's not somebody ready to be a Senator.

That’s true about Fetterman, but a garbage bag is more authentic and has a better personality than Dr Oz.

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I saw Moore's predictions on Bill Maher's program a few weeks ago. I think he's going to be in for a rude awakening the morning after election night.

btw - I also called for a Trump victory in 2016 early on, even in the face of a lot of mocking for that prediction - even from you. I don't see a red tsunami, but I do see them taking the House by 20 or so seats and I'm starting to think they have a good chance of pulling the upset in either GA, PA, or AZ. One of 3 of those, assuming all else goes per the polls, would put them at 51. Frankly I think Fetterman in PA is in big trouble. Even I had no idea just how bad his cognitive abilities were until I saw him giving an interview where he can barely interpret questions being asked to him by ear - he has to read them typed out on a screen. That's not somebody ready to be a Senator.

We will see… I think the Republicans should be petrified if Democratic enthusiasm remains equal to theirs. In midterms it’s historically not been anywhere near that. Before now Democrats often skipped the midterms at their own peril.

Warnock appears to be pulling away now in Georgia in the wake of Walkers abortion issues, Masters is still down badly in Arizona and Fetterman is up half a dozen or so in Pennsylvania. They also have a good chance in Ohio. North Carolina is a virtual tie. I don’t see a viable path to 51. I do still see a viable path, however narrow, for the Democrats to hold the house but it relies on Democrats remaining equally if not more energized than the Republicans… I think they stand a good chance of that.

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October 13

American Greatness / Insider Advantage
Michigan Governor:
Tudor Dixon (R) 44
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 44

Detroit Free Press / Epic-MRA
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49
Tudor Dixon (R) 38

The Hill / Emerson
Ohio Senate:
J.D. Vance (R) 46
Tim Ryan (D) 45

Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 50
Nan Whaley (D) 36

Ohio 2024:
Trump 48
Biden 40

FOX 10 Phoenix / Insider Advantage
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 46
Blake Masters (R) 42

Arizona Governor:
Kari Lake (R) 49
Katie Hobbs (D) 46

Clout Research
Oregon Governor:
Christine Drazan (R) 44
Tina Kotek (D) 38
Betsy Johnson (I) 11

Marist
New York Senate:
Chuck Schumer (D) 52
Joe Pinion (R) 39

New York Governor:
Kathy Hochul (D) 52
Lee Zelda (R) 44

Federalist / Susquehanna
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 48

2024 General Election:
Biden 48
Trump 44