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2022 Midterm Polling Thread

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2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:16 am

Well... We are getting close to kicking off the general election... happening after Labor Day passes more or less. I'm up for whatever ridicule I get if these end up being horribly wrong (2020 was more or less within the + or - 3 margin of error in the "wrong" spots.) I'm gonna include the generic ballot, senate and governors races. The house tends to be A) hard to poll and B) a lot of work figuring out whats competitive or not. So sticking to statewide races. If bmw or somebody wants to figure out (or put money on) the house.. Have fun. There isn't a hell of a lot of race specific data yet so I'll go back to August 1st:

August 1

Harvard-Harris
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 50 Democrats 50

August 3

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 39

Insider Advantage
Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans 45 Democrats 44

Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45 Republicans 43

Monmouth University
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 49 Republicans 46

August 5

Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 43

August 10

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 38

Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 43

August 11

FOX News
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 41 Democrats 41

August 12

Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 43

August 14

Dallas Morning News
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 51 Beto O'Rourke (D) 41



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Deleted User 15783 » Tue Aug 16, 2022 8:48 am

I was reading some article on Bloomberg Businessweek online.
Whoever wrote it seem to be assuming the Republicans will take both the House and the Senate.
It really caught me how it was being stated like it was a given. Weird.
I'd link it but it was almost a week ago. I'd have to do too much swimming thru their site to find it.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Tue Aug 16, 2022 11:34 am

With gerrymandered districts and uneven distribution of the panel, generic Congressional polls are a waste of time and ink/pixels.

Let's dive into the one specific poll you posted -
Dallas Morning News
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 51 Beto O'Rourke (D) 41
You can actually parse the actual numbers here - https://www.uttyler.edu/politicalscienc ... ug2022.pdf

Some interesting things - the 51/41 is only with voters who SAY they are "CERTAIN" to vote. From voters "CERTAIN and/or LIKELY" the split is 48/41 which is close to within the margin of error ( ~ 3%).

And a majority of Texans are in favor of strengthening some gun laws, including buy backs for semi automatic weapons.

And we are still 2 3/4 months away. Very enlightening.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by bmw » Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:04 pm

Abbott will win Texas. I say that with 100% confidence.
Republicans will win the House. I say that with 100% confidence.

The Senate is another story. I can't remember my original prediction from several months ago, but I think it was 51-49 R. I'm flipping that to 51-49 D.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Honeyman » Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:43 pm

I am viewing what goes on in Texas from a far outsider, but I think it makes more sense for Beto to be hammering Abbot on the Texas electric grid, and tone down his anti-gun rhetoric.


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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:49 pm

bmw wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:04 pm
Abbott will win Texas. I say that with 100% confidence.
Republicans will win the House. I say that with 100% confidence.

The Senate is another story. I can't remember my original prediction from several months ago, but I think it was 51-49 R. I'm flipping that to 51-49 D.
Abbot will probably win in a squeaker.. barring another attack on a school or church.
R's will win House again by a squeaker, and summarily throw it away two years later with tons of revenge investigations and 2020 election denying that will prevent them from actually accomplishing anything

Senate - toss up. But it might actually be 53-47 D (Ohio, Penn and Wisc just might flip and everything else a wash.)



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Honeyman » Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:25 pm

According to Fox News, Demings up 4 vs. Little Marco.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/deming ... r-new-poll

DISCLAIMER: My ardent #1 political belief is that Florida ALWAYS will disappoint the Democrats.


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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Tue Aug 16, 2022 10:17 pm

Honeyman wrote:
Tue Aug 16, 2022 6:25 pm
According to Fox News, Demings up 4 vs. Little Marco.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/deming ... r-new-poll

DISCLAIMER: My ardent #1 political belief is that Florida ALWAYS will disappoint the Democrats.
Interesting… I wonder who is gonna face DeSantis? Either the Agriculture commissioner or Charlie Crist… I’ve made it a policy for the next couple weeks to not post about states where the match isn’t set yet. Florida has its primary next week. But the Demings-Rubio match looks certain.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Wed Aug 17, 2022 3:39 am

As I said in the other thread, I expect PA to flip and that’s it for the Senate.

I expect the GOP to flip 20 seats in the House. Not sure how that affects the balance, but it is what it is.


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Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Wed Aug 17, 2022 6:56 am

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote:
Wed Aug 17, 2022 3:39 am
As I said in the other thread, I expect PA to flip and that’s it for the Senate.

I expect the GOP to flip 20 seats in the House. Not sure how that affects the balance, but it is what it is.
That would be a majority of 15 in the house for the GOP. The Democrat majority is 5 right now.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:10 am

August 17

Emerson
Ohio Senate:
J.D. Vance (R) 45 Tim Ryan (D) 42

Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 49 Nan Whaley (D) 33

Marquette University
Wisconsin Senate:
Mandela Barnes (D) 51 Ron Johnson (R) 44

Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 45 Tim Michels (R) 43

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45 Republicans 39

Trafalgar Group
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 42

Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46 Republicans 42

Interesting to note that the current average in the generic ballot is Democrats +0.2. This is only the second time since polling on this question was first done in 1990 that the incumbent party had an edge this late. The other year it happened was 2018.

Wisconsin is definately in play in the senate. Ron Johnson is a poor fit for Wisconsin.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Matt » Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:59 am

Rate This wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:10 am
Interesting to note that the current average in the generic ballot is Democrats +0.2. This is only the second time since polling on this question was first done in 1990 that the incumbent party had an edge this late. The other year it happened was 2018.
How'd that one go?


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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Thu Aug 18, 2022 9:29 am

Matt wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:59 am
Rate This wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 2:10 am
Interesting to note that the current average in the generic ballot is Democrats +0.2. This is only the second time since polling on this question was first done in 1990 that the incumbent party had an edge this late. The other year it happened was 2018.
How'd that one go?
My point… something for everybody in that statistic. Though I don’t think the parties were neck and neck in enthusiasm as they are now. Democrats have gained a lot of ground in that department closing that gap while Republicans have stayed the same. If the trend continues before long Democrats will be more fired up and likely to vote. This is no ordinary election.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:19 pm

August 18

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 51 Tudor Dixon (R) 46

FOX News
Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 49 Tim Michels (R) 46

Wisconsin Governor:
Mandela Barnes (D) 50 Ron Johnson (R) 46

Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 50 Blake Masters (R) 42

Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 47 Kari Lake (R) 44

Civitas / Cygnal
North Carolina Senate:
Ted Budd (R) 42 Cherie Beasley (D) 42



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:36 am

August 19

Trafalgar Group
Nevada Senate:
Adam Laxalt (R) 47 Catherine Cotez Masto (D) 44

Nevada Governor:
Joe Lombardo (R) 46 Steve Sisolak (D) 44

Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 41

August 21

Trafalgar Group
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 48 Mehmet Oz (R) 44

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 49 Doug Mastriano (R) 45

Reno Gazette-Journal / Suffolk University
Nevada Senate:
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 45 Adam Laxalt (R) 38

Nevada Governor:
Steve Sisolak (D) 43 Joe Lombardo (R) 40

NBC News
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 45

August 22

Trafalgar Group
Ohio Senate:
J.D. Vance (R) 50 Tim Ryan (D) 45

Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 54 Nan Whaley (D) 38



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