2022 Midterms...

[FakeAndyStuart]

are mostly a referendum on the current President and "party in power" - and both parties will attempt to blame the other for actions (or lack thereof) over the last 2 years. People say they will vote based on their pocketbooks and bank accounts, gas and food prices, etc. But I believe there are events that have happened (and will happen) that will actually determine the outcome of the 2022 midterms.

1) SCOTUS - the calendar says we will hear the results of Dobbs v Jackson and and NY Rifle v Bruen sometime late June or early July. These two rulings, one on abortion and the other on gun rights, will generate a great deal of news on both a national and local scene. And while gun rights have become the "topic of the day" the prospect of 7 judges deciding the abortion issue may bring out voters that never considered voting in a midterm before. I.E., in general about 50% of registered voters in Ohio actually vote.
(https://www.ohiosos.gov/elections/elect ... elections/) But a recent random poll of self declared registered voters show that 88% plan to vote (https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk ... 840B3EFD49).

2) The Jan 6 committee hearings - While there are some similarities to the Watergate hearing of years ago, there are also dramatic differences, the biggest being an EX President as the focus as opposed to the sitting President. So to some extent, these could be a wash. But the attempt to "counter program" (https://www.axios.com/2022/06/03/trump- ... epublicans) these hearings could backfire badly, IMHO. If the midterms turn into a Trump vs Biden battle, I think many R's who might have narrowly won might narrowly lose.

3) The baby formula dilemma - Many of you on this thread don't really understand the depth of this major mistake by the Biden administration. And no one - repeat NO ONE - in Washington has grabbed the reins and ridden this. Combine that with school safety and you might pull a lot of soccer moms into the voting booth (real or virtual).

4) (And Yes, this one is a shock to me as well) - The Trans Athlete issue. Not because of the issue itself, but the overreach by some to "protect women's sports." Ohio is trying to pass a law to allow sports officials to examine an athlete's genitals after a challenge by a competitor. WTF? I've heard about this from parents who are actually horrified by this.

Don't believe any polling on any midterm race until 1 and 2 are in full swing. And I believe that pollsters still haven't figured out how to adjust for current conditions, so maybe don't believe them at all.

[Deleted User 15783]

My thoughts on your thoughts ....

1. I don't know anything about NY. Rifle vs. Bruen. On the Dobbs v Jackson, I'm predicting a decision that will flop it all on the states to decide. If Scotus does that, then why be pissed at Scotus? Like I said, my view from the cheap seats.

2. January 6th, America don't care. Yeah, in the Media/Entertainment/Political/Twitter/Buzzboard Blogspace it's a H-U-G-E issue.
To most, that's all a distant memory already.

3. Baby formula - It may be the fault of the Biden Administration. I didn't know that until I read your post. Which probably means most people are not blaming Joe, and have no concept it's something he did, that caused it. So like January 6th, who cares? Maybe another case of most Americans are not hanging on every word the telly tells them.

4. The Trans Athlete issue is interesting.
Myself, I think the majority feel it's unfair for a woman that used to be a man to compete. They're beating ALL the ladies. By a considerable margin. Twice as large, built like Arnold, and saying there's no advantage? Yeah. okay.

Along the same line, I think most people can't understand why, no matter what you identify as, if ya gotta dick you use the men's room, and if you not, you use the ladies room. K.I.S.S.

I know the last two statements will bring out The Freak in rabid fashion.
But the topic here is how do the majority of voters feel. That's what we are talking about. Elections. How to win. How to lose.
A few people here on Buzzboard need to realize that. Most Americans don't see things the same way mutants that have nothing better to do than post on social media do. ( ... hey wait a minute .. ).

So either of these be exploited to affect an election or two?
A better question is would a candidate exploit either issue to try to win?
What if a candidate did some fact checking regarding how much taxpayer dollars are being spent to re-furbish restrooms for those who want to identify contrary to their plumbing, and made a big deal out of it. It's a Hail Mary I agree.
But would it work?

[Honeyman]

Traditionally, the party that holds the presidency has horrible mid term results. Considering the economy and gas prices, I expect the same. The Republicans will rule the House.

The Senate will be interesting. Considering the Trumper idiots the GOP will run in Georgia and Pennsylvania, the Democrats could still control the Senate. This would be a good time for beemer to chime in with his numbers and predictions. I don't really know what other states could flip.

Unfortunately, I agree with ITB about January 6th. Many people don't give a shit. A very sad indictment on how divided a country we are.

[Matt]

Hoping for a red tsunami.

[bmw]

Setting aside the 2/3 or so of voters who will vote either R or D no matter what, My ranking for issues that will affect how the other 1/3 of voters vote:

1 - Gas prices
2 - Food prices/shortages
3 - Abortion
4 - Government's handling of Covid

As to gun violence, I don't think recent incident will change how most people already felt about gun control one way or the other. Translation: These shootings won't have much of an impact on how people vote

As to January 6 - outside of the Trump haters (nearly all of whom fall within that 2/3 I mentioned above), this will have nearly no impact whatsoever.

As to the transgender athlete issue - I don't think this is much of a needle mover. Most people who care about this are also in that 2/3, and quite frankly, I suspect that of the 1/3 middle-of-the-roaders, the majority of those don't want to see transgender athletes competing in women's sports. So to the extent that this issue moves the needle even a tiny bit, I think it is in favor of Republicans.

My early predictions:
Senate 51 R to 49 D
House 228 R to 207 D

[FakeAndyStuart]

My thoughts on your thoughts on my thoughts are in red..

My thoughts on your thoughts ....

1. I don't know anything about NY. Rifle vs. Bruen. On the Dobbs v Jackson, I'm predicting a decision that will flop it all on the states to decide. If Scotus does that, then why be pissed at Scotus? Like I said, my view from the cheap seats.

Guess you don't know any women? "Flop(ing) it all on the states to decide" didn't work 50 years ago and won't work today. This is an issue that may cause increased voter turnout to make sure that their state does what they feel is right. Advantage - D

2. January 6th, America don't care. Yeah, in the Media/Entertainment/Political/Twitter/Buzzboard Blogspace it's a H-U-G-E issue.
To most, that's all a distant memory already.

The event is a distant memory ... the support for overturning an election is not and something still litigated almost every day. It's not the event that will motivate voters, it's the Trump v Biden that will. If these midterms do become less of a Biden referendum and more of a Trump v Biden, I say slight advantage D.

3. Baby formula - It may be the fault of the Biden Administration. I didn't know that until I read your post. Which probably means most people are not blaming Joe, and have no concept it's something he did, that caused it. So like January 6th, who cares? Maybe another case of most Americans are not hanging on every word the telly tells them.

Who cares? Mothers who can't feed their babies, grandmas watching their new grand babies failing to thrive. If I were a somewhat moderate R, I would pounce on this issue and pair it with a "keep the kids safe in school" approach (doesn't have to be any sort of gun control, just some sort of keeping schools from becoming shooting galleries). That and blaming it on the Biden people could be an advantage R. Or even an advantage on a local level for a moderate D.

4. The Trans Athlete issue is interesting.
Myself, I think the majority feel it's unfair for a woman that used to be a man to compete. They're beating ALL the ladies. By a considerable margin. Twice as large, built like Arnold, and saying there's no advantage? Yeah. okay.

Along the same line, I think most people can't understand why, no matter what you identify as, if ya gotta dick you use the men's room, and if you not, you use the ladies room. K.I.S.S.

The reason that this is an issue is because it is being made an issue. The Ohio Legislature passed a bill to allow inspection of an athlete's genitals... because of one person. One athlete, in the entire state. Maybe you don't care if some ref sticks his hands into your son or daughter's pants, but I think others do. Not sure how it leans.

Moving on...

My early predictions:
Senate 51 R to 49 D
House 228 R to 207 D

Seems a fair analysis, by relying on a typical mid term turnout. I think turnout will be much larger specifically because of the abortion issue.

Ok, one more

Traditionally, the party that holds the presidency has horrible mid term results. Considering the economy and gas prices, I expect the same. The Republicans will rule the House.

Nothing is traditional about elections today...

Will be fun to watch.

[Honeyman]

Setting aside the 2/3 or so of voters who will vote either R or D no matter what, My ranking for issues that will affect how the other 1/3 of voters vote:

1 - Gas prices
2 - Food prices/shortages
3 - Abortion
4 - Government's handling of Covid

As to gun violence, I don't think recent incident will change how most people already felt about gun control one way or the other. Translation: These shootings won't have much of an impact on how people vote

As to January 6 - outside of the Trump haters (nearly all of whom fall within that 2/3 I mentioned above), this will have nearly no impact whatsoever.

As to the transgender athlete issue - I don't think this is much of a needle mover. Most people who care about this are also in that 2/3, and quite frankly, I suspect that of the 1/3 middle-of-the-roaders, the majority of those don't want to see transgender athletes competing in women's sports. So to the extent that this issue moves the needle even a tiny bit, I think it is in favor of Republicans.

My early predictions:
Senate 51 R to 49 D
House 228 R to 207 D

How do you got PA figured? I think OZ is a train wreck and Fetterman is gonna turn that state.

[bmw]

You want my call already on PA? That one is tough to figure out as neither candidate is your typical politician.

Pat Toomey won by a slightly larger margin in 2016 than did Trump in that state, and while Biden won PA in 2020 by 1.2 percentage points, I can't imagine Biden is nearly that popular there now. Despite Oz's shortcomings, I'm giving him the nod. While Fetterman seems to be more moderate than most Democrats on energy policy, he also is pretty far left on the socialism vs. capitalism spectrum, and in an election that will be a referendum on the economy, given how close to equally split PA is politically, I think that any (R) would win this race, including Oz.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I do believe that Dr. Oz will beat Fetterman as Oz is much more appealing to Dems like myself. Fetterman also has health issues. I believe that Herschel Walker will defeat Warnock flipping that seat red.

The recent polls locally in Michigan find that Whitmer has a 50% approval rating as opposed to mid 30s for Biden. This is a much better showing than I thought. That said, I still want to vote in the GOP primary for the moderates.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

So, there are no moderates running for governor. Sad. https://youtu.be/x9_26MbmG5Y

[paul8539]

I am going to go slightly farther than BMW:
Senate: 53R, 45D, 2'I'
House: 232 R, 210 D, 3 'I'.

[audiophile]

Dumb DA out:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/san-f ... ar-AAYcR2P

[TC Talks]

Most people just want government to function. Some of the conservative ideologues want to tear government down, and sleep with underage women while taking away their rights.

I believe any politician working to actually improve the quality of life for all Americans is at risk for removal.

“This is about competence,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, who served in local government in Los Angeles for nearly four decades and is now the director of the Los Angeles Initiative at the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California, Los Angeles.

“People want solutions,” he said. “They don’t give a damn about left or right. It’s the common-sense problem-solving they seem to be missing. Government is supposed to take care of the basics, and the public believes the government hasn’t been doing that.”

[km1125]

That DA in SF that was trying to "improve the quality of life" just got BOOTED. Apparently there ARE some folks in SF with some common sense!!

[Ben Zonia]

Midterm elections are the ONLY MIDTERMS politicians EVER studied for. Many were abysmal students, and with family legacy admissions for second and third generations, others taking standardized tests for them, bribing admissions officials, and who knows what else. Many probably rival Hunter Biden's and Kennedy family escapades, we just didn't know it, as it was covered up even way back. You talk about real "privilege", and you're talking about politicians. It's all Psychological projection on their part.