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Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

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bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:31 pm

Neckbeard wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:07 pm
Getting the vaccine helps cut out the middleman of getting sick for X period of time and increases the likelihood of never getting it!
That sounds great on paper. Except the daily case rate, even before Omicron, has been marginally higher post-vaccine than pre-vaccine, on average. That, and upwards of 70-80 percent of the population has now had Covid. At the end of the day, the vaccine did literally nothing to decrease your odds of eventually getting Covid. One thing it may have done was extend the period of time enough for some people to get the less deadly Omicron variant who may have otherwise gotten Delta, but that aside, most people will end up having gotten Covid at least once. At that point, as I noted in my last post, a more important question becomes re-infection rates among the vaccinated vs unvaccinated.



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Honeyman
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Honeyman » Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:34 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:14 am
Honeyman wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:59 am
If you get the vaccine, you have a better chance of living. This is a FACT and really the most important one to most rational human beings.
Sorted by daily death rate per-capita, there's no correlation whatsoever between a state's vaccination rate and its daily death rate.

25 deadliest states - 12 states have a vaccination rate over 64%
25 least deadly states - 13 states have a vaccination rate over 64%
But that's not what I said.

What is the percentage of vaccinated people dead vs. unvaccinated?


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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by craig11152 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:42 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:31 pm

That, and upwards of 70-80 percent of the population has now had Covid. .
I realize there are unknown numbers of cases never diagnosed. But worldwide only 6.5% of the population has had confirmed cases. In the US its a little over 24%. Same in Sweden, 24.2% . Germany about 29%

For a guy who try's to make a case with numbers how do you come up with 70-80%?


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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by craig11152 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:15 pm

As a sidebar I got my second booster (4th shot overall) at 11 am today.
I guess that means I'll have Covid by Monday since not only does the vaccine NOT work but it actually causes Covid.
:rollin


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Honeyman
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Honeyman » Sat Apr 23, 2022 5:02 pm

craig11152 wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:15 pm
As a sidebar I got my second booster (4th shot overall) at 11 am today.
I guess that means I'll have Covid by Monday since not only does the vaccine NOT work but it actually causes Covid.
:rollin
Which did you get, Craig? I'm contemplating #4, but have heard if you have had all of one type (Pfizer for me), it might be wise to get the other (Moderna in my case).


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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by craig11152 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:16 pm

I stuck with Pfizer since my local pharmacy only had Pfizer and I didn't realize I could swap till after the fact.


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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Matt » Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:41 pm

Any thought to the fact that people that are smart enough to get vaccinated are more likely to get tested even when asymptomatic?


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:18 pm

craig11152 wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:42 pm
For a guy who try's to make a case with numbers how do you come up with 70-80%?
https://covidestim.org/

That was a link posted by FakeAndyStuart some time back. Click on the PERCENT EVER INFECTED link on that page and you'll get a state-by-state breakdown.

They quit updating their models in December of 2021. And at that time, they estimated that roughly 60-65% of the US population had gotten Covid. And that was pre-Omicron. If anything, my 70-80% number might be on the low side considering that confirmed Omicron cases numbers in the millions per day during its peak.



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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:22 pm

Matt wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:41 pm
Any thought to the fact that people that are smart enough to get vaccinated are more likely to get tested even when asymptomatic?
Is that a fact though? You're not the first person to suggest this in here - in fact it has been used several times to challenge my assertions. But here's the thing. If that was in fact true, then how do you explain the opposite correlation that existed last summer? ie, the highest case rates being the lowest vaccinated areas?



bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:27 pm

craig11152 wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:15 pm
I guess that means I'll have Covid by Monday since not only does the vaccine NOT work but it actually causes Covid.
:rollin
You laugh, but you have provided no explanation for why we have a statistically strong correlation with an R-value of 0.8 between vaccination rates and case rates. Specifically, why are the highest vaccinated states (47 out of 50 fitting the trend) seeing the highest case rates and the least vaccinated seeing the lowest?

So far I've seen 2 explanations. Neckbeard argued that it was because of population density. Matt argued it was because unvaccinated people are supposedly less likely to get tested. But both of these explanations fail to explain last summer's data. It isn't just that there's a strong correlation right now. It is that there was a moderate correlation in the opposite direction last summer. And the movement from that moderate correlation in one direction to a strong one in the other has been a quite linear movement through time (ie, if I were to graph out the R-value over the past 9 months, its movement would follow a fairly straight line).



bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:42 pm

Honeyman wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:34 pm
But that's not what I said.

What is the percentage of vaccinated people dead vs. unvaccinated?
It is very difficult to find straight data on this. According to the NYT, it is about a 10:1 ratio, but that is when adjusted for age. Considering that the elderly are vaccinated at much higher percentages and moreover that the vaccine is much more likely to reduce the deaths per 100k among the elderly than among the young (by virtue of the simple fact that people over age 50 as a group are 30x more likely to die from a Covid infection than are people under 50), I suspect that this is a significantly skewed number. I'm sure the vaccine probably does provide significant benefit to that 20-30 percent of the population; I've never disputed this. But when you broaden this out to the entire population, that ratio seems to shrink significantly, as is evidenced by the state-by-state group data.



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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Ben Zonia » Mon Apr 25, 2022 1:53 pm

People who have been vaccinated may also be more reckless in exposing themselves at close contact spreader events, thinking they can't get it, like kids were when it first started in 2020, believing they were immune to serious consequences.


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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:14 pm

May I ask, what is your goal in these posts? To discredit vaccinations? To discredit the CDC?

It seems that the research I have seen shows that vaccinations prevent serious disease. I also have a multitude of anecdotal stories from people I know who tested positive and had symptoms from a mild cold to a semi serious flu. All of them, and I can actually say ALL OF THEM, survived without needing any medical treatment. I don't know anyone who caught this disease without a vaccine and lived.

So, please be specific. What's your point?



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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:43 pm

FakeAndyStuart wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:14 pm
May I ask, what is your goal in these posts? To discredit vaccinations? To discredit the CDC?
My goal is to get people to actually look at the data and not just eat up what you're being fed by the government and by the media. My conclusion after looking at the data and looking at the strong correlation is that vaccinated people are spreading Covid more than unvaccinated people are. And by a fairly large margin. Now the data doesn't answer the WHY part, and we can speculate all we want. I've had the suspicions that Ben Zonia has put forth above for some time now, but again, the data doesn't prove or disprove that particular theory. I also suspect that a big part here is that the efficacy created by natural immunity lasts far longer than does that of vaccinated immunity. The big question moving forward will be whether vaccinated people who get Covid end up with the same degree of natural immunity that unvaccinated people do.

Do you reach a different conclusions after looking at the data? In the world of statistics, an r-value of 0.8 is quite strong.
FakeAndyStuart wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:14 pm
It seems that the research I have seen shows that vaccinations prevent serious disease. I also have a multitude of anecdotal stories from people I know who tested positive and had symptoms from a mild cold to a semi serious flu. All of them, and I can actually say ALL OF THEM, survived without needing any medical treatment. I don't know anyone who caught this disease without a vaccine and lived.
I have plenty of anecdotal stories as well, but you and I both know those are nearly useless when trying to apply those to large data sets. In my case, I have 11 immediate and intermediate family members who got Covid. All were unvaccinated, all 11 lived, and 1 required hospitalization. 1 of those 11 family members works in a lare office environment where nearly everybody else is vaccinated, and she says they're all sick, all the time (and she herself hasn't been sick once since she had Covid back in November). One of them is on like her 6th cold in the past 5 months. She says even a few of them working there are starting to get suspicious if their vaccine has anything to do with why they're now sick all the time. I don't know what to think of that situation myself.



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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Matt » Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:56 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:22 pm
Matt wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:41 pm
Any thought to the fact that people that are smart enough to get vaccinated are more likely to get tested even when asymptomatic?
Is that a fact though? You're not the first person to suggest this in here - in fact it has been used several times to challenge my assertions. But here's the thing. If that was in fact true, then how do you explain the opposite correlation that existed last summer? ie, the highest case rates being the lowest vaccinated areas?
Highly vaccinated areas aren't completely vaccinated. The data remains the same that vaccinated people are less likely to get sick and significantly less likely to get severely ill or die. I get that you have this strong desire to be right, but you're not. I'm not sure that anyone can claim they were right in regards to covid. We need to move past covid and make sure that people have the tools without treating other people like shit.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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