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Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

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bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:23 am

...and the least vaccinated states have the least. The average full vaccination rate in the 9 states with 4 or fewer cases per 100k population is at 54%. The average in the 8 states with 25 or more cases? 76%. Alaska is the only anomaly.

2 Wyoming 51
2 Mississippi 52
3 South Dakota 61
3 Missouri 56
3 Aarkansas 54
4 Alabama 51
4 Louisiana 53
4 Idaho 54
4 South Carolina 57

25 New Jersey 75
25 Connecticut 79
25 Colorado 70
29 Massachusetts 79
30 Alaska 62
32 Rhode Island 82
33 New York 77
44 Vermont 81

And looking at all 50 states? Of the 25 states with the least Covid, only ONE of those states has a vaccination rate ABOVE 64% (New Mexico). Of the 25 states with the most Covid, only TWO states have a vaccination rate BELOW 64% (Kentucky and Michigan).

That means there's an inverse correlation between case rate and vaccination rate currently in 47 of 50 states. And on a graph (which I won't post), the inverse relationship is actually logarithmic.



Deleted User 9015

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Deleted User 9015 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:33 am

More shocking descriptive statistics from bmw! I never would have guessed that states with populations spread apart would have the lowest frequency of infection, but here we are.



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:51 am

I guess you haven't followed the data at all over the past year. Last summer, the data was exactly the opposite - the lowest case rates were in the northeast while the highest were in the southeast and upper midwest. Since then, with each passing month, the trend gradually approached no correlation and then inverse correlation, and now inverse logarithmic correlation.

EDIT - and...found it. Here is the data from Late July 2021:

Least Covid states per-capita:
1 - Vermont
2 - Massachusetts
3 - Maine
4 - Connecticut
5 - Rhode Island
6 - Maryland
7 - Washington
8 - New Jersey
9 - New Hampshire
10 - New York

Most Covid States:
50 - Alabama
49 - Mississippi
48 - Arkansas
47 - Idaho
46 - Louisiana
45 - Wyoming
44 - Georgia
43 - Tennessee
42 - West Virginia
41 - Oklahoma
40 - Missouri

My theory at the time was that the vaccine was working. Keep in mind that this data immediately followed the quick uptake of the first vaccines. Here is the graph. STRONG correlation between vaccination rate and case rate - specifically, that the vaccination appeared to be working:

Image

But as time has gone on, that graph has reversed itself and then some. Care to explain why?
Last edited by bmw on Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Honeyman
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Honeyman » Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:59 am

If you get the vaccine, you have a better chance of living. This is a FACT and really the most important one to most rational human beings.


The censorship king from out of state.

Deleted User 9015

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Deleted User 9015 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:13 am

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:51 am
STRONG correlation between vaccination rate and case rate
What's the r?



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:14 am

Honeyman wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:59 am
If you get the vaccine, you have a better chance of living. This is a FACT and really the most important one to most rational human beings.
Sorted by daily death rate per-capita, there's no correlation whatsoever between a state's vaccination rate and its daily death rate.

25 deadliest states - 12 states have a vaccination rate over 64%
25 least deadly states - 13 states have a vaccination rate over 64%



Deleted User 9015

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Deleted User 9015 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:19 am

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:14 am
Honeyman wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:59 am
If you get the vaccine, you have a better chance of living. This is a FACT and really the most important one to most rational human beings.
Sorted by daily death rate per-capita, there's no correlation whatsoever between a state's vaccination rate and its daily death rate.

25 deadliest states - 12 states have a vaccination rate over 64%
25 least deadly states - 13 states have a vaccination rate over 64%
You keep saying correlation, I don't think you know what that means. What is the strength of the correlation?



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:25 am

Neckbeard wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:13 am
bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:51 am
STRONG correlation between vaccination rate and case rate
What's the r?
Fair enough. Not strong. Correct word is "moderate."

The exact value is -0.58 for that graph I posted.

You want the value for the current set of data? I can guarantee you it is a positive number and almost certainly above 0.7 which would make it strong. I can check.



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:39 am

R-value for today's data? Correlation between vaccination rate and daily case rate:

0.80

Anything above 0.70 is considered "strong." Here we have 0.8

So in the course of 9 months, we have transitioned from a negative R-value of -0.57 to a positive R-value of 0.80, or a moderate correlation in one direction to a strong one in the other. Anybody here care to theorize why? Because that 0.80 looks pretty strong to me.



Deleted User 9015

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Deleted User 9015 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:41 am

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:25 am
Neckbeard wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:13 am
bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:51 am
STRONG correlation between vaccination rate and case rate
What's the r?
Fair enough. Not strong. Correct word is "moderate."

The exact value is -0.58 for that graph I posted.

You want the value for the current set of data? I can guarantee you it is a positive number and almost certainly above 0.7 which would make it strong. I can check.
If you have the data, how about looking at time as a predictor of infection rate, and moderating it by vaccine availability in one model and vaccination rate in another :D

I've never looked at that, I would love to know the results of that.



Deleted User 9015

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Deleted User 9015 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:43 am

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:39 am
R-value for today's data? Correlation between vaccination rate and daily case rate:

0.80

Anything above 0.70 is considered "strong." Here we have 0.8

So in the course of 9 months, we have transitioned from a negative R-value of -0.57 to a positive R-value of 0.80, or a moderate correlation in one direction to a strong one in the other. Anybody here care to theorize why? Because that 0.80 looks pretty strong to me.
Well, I am no epididiamatromotist, but it would appear to me that would be because people aren't boosting and the efficacy of vaccines becomes weaker over time.



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:47 am

Neckbeard wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:43 am
bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:39 am
R-value for today's data? Correlation between vaccination rate and daily case rate:

0.80

Anything above 0.70 is considered "strong." Here we have 0.8

So in the course of 9 months, we have transitioned from a negative R-value of -0.57 to a positive R-value of 0.80, or a moderate correlation in one direction to a strong one in the other. Anybody here care to theorize why? Because that 0.80 looks pretty strong to me.
Well, I am no epididiamatromotist, but it would appear to me that would be because people aren't boosting and the efficacy of vaccines becomes weaker over time.
That only explains the higher case rates in the higher vaccinated regions. How do you explain the lower case rates in the lower vaccinated regions? Last year's data directly refutes your population density theory.

I think the answer here is quite simple. Natural immunity. The places that had the highest infection rates last year now have the lowest infection rates this year. Natural immunity efficacy lasts much longer than does that of vaccinated immunity.



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:57 am

Neckbeard wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:41 am
If you have the data, how about looking at time as a predictor of infection rate, and moderating it by vaccine availability in one model and vaccination rate in another :D

I've never looked at that, I would love to know the results of that.
I'm not sure I understand what you're asking for here. I don't have enough data points (I have maybe 5 or 6 snapshots in time over the past 9 months) to try to use time as a predictor.

What I WOULD be curious to see myself, and I can't find this data anywhere - is a comparison of re-infection rates among various groups and sub-groups of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated people. Specifically, I want to know if a vaccinated person is more likely than an unvaccinated person to get Covid twice or more. Because if they are, then that starts to eat away at Honeyman's and others' point that being vaccinated makes you less likely to die. That may be true PER INFECTION, but if you're getting sick multiple times, your odds of dying goes up.



Deleted User 9015

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Deleted User 9015 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:01 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:57 am
Neckbeard wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:41 am
If you have the data, how about looking at time as a predictor of infection rate, and moderating it by vaccine availability in one model and vaccination rate in another :D

I've never looked at that, I would love to know the results of that.
I'm not sure I understand what you're asking for here. I don't have enough data points (I have maybe 5 or 6 snapshots in time over the past 9 months) to try to use time as a predictor.
Apply a categorical moderator to data from say March 2020 to the present for vaccine availability where time predicts infection rate. Then use vaccination rate as a continuous variable to moderate the relationship between time and infection rate.



Deleted User 9015

Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Deleted User 9015 » Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:07 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:47 am
Neckbeard wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:43 am
bmw wrote:
Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:39 am
R-value for today's data? Correlation between vaccination rate and daily case rate:

0.80

Anything above 0.70 is considered "strong." Here we have 0.8

So in the course of 9 months, we have transitioned from a negative R-value of -0.57 to a positive R-value of 0.80, or a moderate correlation in one direction to a strong one in the other. Anybody here care to theorize why? Because that 0.80 looks pretty strong to me.
Well, I am no epididiamatromotist, but it would appear to me that would be because people aren't boosting and the efficacy of vaccines becomes weaker over time.
That only explains the higher case rates in the higher vaccinated regions. How do you explain the lower case rates in the lower vaccinated regions? Last year's data directly refutes your population density theory.

I think the answer here is quite simple. Natural immunity. The places that had the highest infection rates last year now have the lowest infection rates this year. Natural immunity efficacy lasts much longer than does that of vaccinated immunity.
I don't think anyone says that getting a disease will subsequently lead to immunity for X period of time, but the point of a vaccine is to not get the disease for X period of time. Getting the vaccine helps cut out the middleman of getting sick for X period of time and increases the likelihood of never gettingit! Like, if the vaccination didn't roll out to begin with, and we had people out and about the way they have been the past 9 months, hospitals would likely be jam-packed. I just do not get why this needs to be explained.



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