A look at Omicron spread vs vaccination rates in the 20 most populous cities

[bmw]

As a preliminary matter, I went into this having no idea what I would find. I know that most of the early spread of Omicron is happening in the most populated cities. So I thought I would dive into the data.

Here's what I did. I took the 20 most populated cities in the country (or rather, the counties containing those cities) and looked at both daily Covid rates (over the past 14 days) and full vaccination rates. What I was curious about was whether there was any correlation between the rapid spread of Omicron and vaccination rates. Here are my findings:

Vaccination rates ranged from a low of 52% in the county containing Indianapolis to a high of 81% in the county containing San Jose. Daily case rates (per 100k of population) ranged from a low of 23 in the county containing Fort Worth to a high of 293 in Washington DC.

The correlation graph goes from a low of 24 cases at the lowest vaccinated part of the graph to a high of 70 cases at the highest vaccinated part. Translation: Covid is spreading 2.9x faster in the highest vaccinated regions than in the lowest. This fairly closely mirrors the national average of 3.5x faster when sorting by state.

Perhaps most fascinating is that each and every one of the 6 LEAST vaccinated areas (counties containing Indianapolis, Phoenix, Fort Worth, Dallas, San Diego, and Jacksonville) had daily case rates below the median of 78. Only 1 of the 10 least vaccinated areas (Columbus) had a daily case rate over 100 while half (5 out of 10) of the most vaccinated areas (Philly, DC, Chicago, Denver, and New York City) had rates over 100.

I'll post the raw data and some graphs later, and if I have extra time, I may expand this list out to the top 30 or 40 most populated cities, but bottom line appears to be that Omicron is literally spreading 3x faster in the highest vaccinated big cities than it is in the lowest vaccinated big cities.

EDIT - Here is the raw data thus far. I'll post more when I have more time later.

[craig11152]

As a sidebar the CDC just downgraded their numbers on Omicron significantly.

In any case you seem to "almost" want to suggest that vaccinations cause COVID.
I'm no longer going to gather data to refute your cherry picked misinterpreted "facts".
I'm beginning to wonder if you are mentally unstable.

[km1125]

I don't think it's as much "vaccinations cause COVID", but somewhat I think that vaccinated folks think they are largely immune to catching COVID and therefore don't take near the precautions they should. To be fair though, that's the message they were sold all through the first half of the year...that getting vaccinations would "end this".

As I said even last year, even a modicum of precautions would be a h u g e change in how this thing propagates. We vacillated between horrendous lockdowns and when the lockdowns were removed and folks got vaccinated, they think there is no virus that can be caught anymore.

[TC Talks]

As a sidebar the CDC just downgraded their numbers on Omicron significantly.

In any case you seem to "almost" want to suggest that vaccinations cause COVID.
I'm no longer going to gather data to refute your cherry picked misinterpreted "facts".
I'm beginning to wonder if you are mentally unstable.

I hope it doesn't make you uncomfortable that you've joined my position on Mr. BMW.

To be fair though, that's the message they were sold all through the first half of the year...that getting vaccinations would "end this".

Vaccines have proven that you stay safer (lowers your risk of death or significant health ramifications). Even if Omicron can break through two doses, the hospitalizations are not equal to Delta. That's why you hear the word safe associated with the vaccine not "end".

[Robert Faygo]

So tiresome. Yes, there are clearly more people that are vaccinated that are unknowingly spreading omicron. And the ones that are suffering from it the most are the unvaccinated. Trying to blame shift this crisis is not a good look as with each passing data point you look more and more stubborn and unwilling to accept facts. The vaccines are doing their job at protecting those that choose to be protected.

Meanwhile, let's keep killing people, wearing out our health care system, and spending billions
https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/bri ... f-dollars/

A dive into who is dying and getting hospitalized with breakthroughs.

Overall, we find that age is highly correlated with breakthrough hospitalizations. The majority of COVID-19 breakthrough hospitalizations were of elderly people (ages 65+), whereas the majority of people not fully vaccinated and hospitalized with COVID-19 were non-elderly adults (ages 18-64). In addition, a greater share of people hospitalized with a breakthrough COVID-19 infection had a comorbidity than people hospitalized with COVID-19 who were not fully vaccinated.

We also find that breakthrough COVID-19 hospitalizations included fewer COVID-related respiratory complications or treatments, suggesting fully vaccinated patients hospitalized with breakthrough COVID-19 may have been more likely to be hospitalized for unrelated reasons. If this is the case, it would mean that the gap in risk of COVID-19 hospitalization between vaccinated and unvaccinated people is even greater than previously known.

https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/bri ... nfections/

Here's a guy on the front line in NYC, who is admittedly biased. And much more experienced than any Buzzboard keyboard warrior
https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronav ... d/3468742/

Maybe it's time to set aside the clear confirmation bias that you have bmw and take some time to disprove your theories instead of what ever this is that you're doing now.

Each time you post you prove just one thing - you're so desperate to prove yourself right that you are now at the point of ignoring an avalanche of data solely because it doesn't fit your narrative.

[Honeyman]

If seeing your own mother in an intensive care ward doesn't change your views on the vaccine, I imagine nothing will.

[audiophile]

I think BMW's point is that natural immunity is far superior, because vaccines create leaky Indvidual's.

Go read his post here on Merek's disease.

[craig11152]

I think BMW's point is that natural immunity is far superior.....

Except I have not seen any science to suggest that.
I have seen science that says it appears a combination of 3 shots and a case of covid provide a super immunity.

[bmw]

I think BMW's point is that natural immunity is far superior, because vaccines create leaky Indvidual's.

Go read his post here on Merek's disease.

-DING-DING-DING-....We have a winner!

I don't know why my posting of data elicits such negative responses and personal attacks from people in here. The data is what it is, and I'm tired of being accused of cherry-picking or being insensitive to my own personal situation (as I noted early, one thing I will NOT do is start ignoring the data). I've looked at all 50 states. I've separately looked at the top 20 populated cities. It isn't like I'm leaving states or cities out. And the data isn't even close. Literally 300% difference, both when looking at states or at highly populated cities.

Except I have not seen any science to suggest that.
I have seen science that says it appears a combination of 3 shots and a case of covid provide a super immunity.

And you don't have the intellectual curiosity to ask yourself the question why this science is in direct conflict with the raw case rates vs vaccine ratios within various populations? Your suggestion that I'm "mentally unstable" is beyond uncalled for. I'm unstable because I question why the data is what it is?

Side-note not aimed at anybody in-particular: I do find it fascinating that people are finally starting to realize that vaccinated people are giving the disease to unvaccinated people but don't feel the least bit guilty about that (the same people who have done nothing but shame the unvaccinated for spreading the virus).

[bmw]

BOTTOM LINE is that it is a FACT that Covid is currently spreading faster in populations with higher vaccination rates than it is in lower vaccination rates, on the whole. This is true in 70% of the top 20 biggest cities (14 out of 20) and I just checked the state data I had from yesterday and it is true in a nearly identical 68% of the states as a whole (34/50).

Maybe it is time some others in here set their own confirmation bias aside and ask yourself WHY Covid is spreading at such lower rates in the lowest vaccinated populations. Literally 300-350% higher spread rate in areas with double the percentage of unvaccinated people.

It isn't like these are statistically insignificant numbers. SOMETHING is going on to cause them. And seemingly nobody has the intellectual curiosity to ask themselves why.

[Bryce]

Same reason we don't hear anything further about the black guy that ran his SUV into a bunch of white people at a Christmas parade.

Doesn't fit their narrative.

[Robert Faygo]

WHY Covid is spreading at such lower rates in the lowest vaccinated populations. Literally 300-350% higher spread rate in areas with double the percentage of unvaccinated people.

It isn't like these are statistically insignificant numbers. SOMETHING is going on to cause them. And seemingly nobody has the intellectual curiosity to ask themselves why.

I suspect the answer is not complicated - vaccinated individuals are MORE concerned about spreading the virus than the unvaccinated and are getting tested at a much higher frequency and rate. This is especially true in large cities where testing availability is much more readily available to those that also have had (and still have) better access to vaccines.

Your data does not account for "discouraged" unvaccinated that don't see the need for getting tested - and couldn't test even if they wanted to. Especially with omicron.

Your data is flawed because it doesn't account for so many variables such as these. I'm not a public health statistician -- and clearly neither are you. You cutsie spreadsheets are just that ... cute. They have no basis in reality.

[TC Talks]

Here's the data that matters, digest this and realize how many people have died in the past 2 months foolishly would be alive today have they gotten the vaccination. Two of the 52 people who have died in Grand Traverse County in the last 60 days were vaccinated. I knew three of them.

Deaths attributed to COVID-19 in northern Michigan since the start of the pandemic increased by 251 since Dec. 1, from 1,247 to 1,498 — a 20 percent jump.

Grand Traverse County had 125 deaths in 2021 — 31 in November and 21 deaths in December during the recent surge.

[Honeyman]

.

[km1125]

Same reason we don't hear anything further about the black guy that ran his SUV into a bunch of white people at a Christmas parade.

Doesn't fit their narrative.

Just an interesting observation when you compare that SUV ramming into the parade in Wisconsin and the car ramming into the protesters in Charlottesville back in 2017. One person dead and eight injured in Charlottesville, but SIX dead and SIXTY TWO injured in Wisconsin. Charlottesville was in the papers and nightly news for WEEKS (probably stretching into months) but Wisconsin we barely heard about after the Thanksgiving break. Within 24 hours of the Charlottesville event, even the FEDs were looking into charges and eventually levied 30 of them. Within 24 hours of Wisconsin, they dismissed any form of terrorism or racially-induced motives.