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This is a perfect time to revisit the 2015 chicken virus study

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bmw
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This is a perfect time to revisit the 2015 chicken virus study

Post by bmw » Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:46 am

I am becoming increasingly frustrated with people in here suggesting that my concerns about the Covid vaccine are not only unfounded, but are utter garbage and voodoo based on fake science and statistical manipulation. So, in light of the latest variant to suddenly show up, it is time to re-visit a study done back in 2015 (one I"ve referenced in here before), before Covid was here, and before this stuff became so heavily politicized. Even PBS covered this story. Here are some excerpts from the PBS article:
The deadliest strains of viruses often take care of themselves — they flare up and then die out. This is because they are so good at destroying cells and causing illness that they ultimately kill their host before they have time to spread.

But a chicken virus that represents one of the deadliest germs in history breaks from this conventional wisdom, thanks to an inadvertent effect from a vaccine. Chickens vaccinated against Marek’s disease rarely get sick. But the vaccine does not prevent them from spreading Marek’s to unvaccinated birds...

The reason this is a problem for Marek’s disease is because the vaccine is “leaky.” A leaky vaccine is one that keeps a microbe from doing serious harm to its host, but doesn’t stop the disease from replicating and spreading to another individual. On the other hand, a “perfect” vaccine is one that sets up lifelong immunity that never wanes and blocks both infection and transmission...
Sound familiar? The only difference is that the chicken virus has a much higher mortality rate in unvaccinated chickens than does Covid in unvaccinated people, but nevertheless, the vaccine is keeping people alive that would otherwise die (or at least get sick enough to self-quarantine as opposed to going out into public, vaccinated, feeling invincible, and with little or minor symptoms).

Moving on...
“Previously, a hot strain was so nasty, it wiped itself out. Now, you keep its host alive with a vaccine, then it can transmit and spread in the world,” Read said. “So it’s got an evolutionary future, which it didn’t have before.”

But does this evolutionary future breed more dangerous viruses? This study argues yes...
I won't get into the specifics of the experiments - you can read about them in the PBS article if you like or in the full text of the study, but the findings?
One way to look at that experiment is that shows vaccinating birds kills unvaccinated birds. The vaccination of one group of birds leads to the transmission of a virus so hot that it kills the other birds
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tt ... -dangerous

From the study itself:
Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/a ... io.1002198

And something I didn't even know:
Like Marek’s vaccines, vaccines for avian influenza are leaky. For this reason, they’re banned from agricultural use in the U.S. and Europe
Hear that? Leaky vaccines for avian flu are BANNED in Europe and the US. I never once heard this concern raised when the Covid vaccines were being developed.

The authors do go on to hypothesize how imperfect vaccines affect humans:
To test the imperfect vaccine hypothesis in humans, you would need monitor the vaccine response for either a large or isolated population for a long time. Doing this would allow a researcher to gauge how the vaccine interacts with the virus and if that relationship is evolving. Does the vaccine merely reduce symptoms, or does it also keep patients from getting infected and transmitting the virus?
Well, we have nearly a year's worth of data, and I think we already know the answers to some of those questions. It does NOT keep patients from getting infected or transmitting the virus. Also may explain why the Delta wave has been lingering for longer than the past waves before we had vaccines. This is playing out before our very eyes. People need to start recognizing that. Now to be fair, the authors do not necessarily suggest that leaky vaccines are bad. As they note, "even if this evolution happens, you don’t want to be an unvaccinated chicken." But they stress that we do "need to consider the evolutionary consequences...[of] leaky transmission."



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Re: This is a perfect time to revisit the 2015 chicken virus study

Post by Rate This » Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:16 am

bmw wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:46 am
I am becoming increasingly frustrated with people in here suggesting that my concerns about the Covid vaccine are not only unfounded, but are utter garbage and voodoo based on fake science and statistical manipulation. So, in light of the latest variant to suddenly show up, it is time to re-visit a study done back in 2015 (one I"ve referenced in here before), before Covid was here, and before this stuff became so heavily politicized. Even PBS covered this story. Here are some excerpts from the PBS article:
The deadliest strains of viruses often take care of themselves — they flare up and then die out. This is because they are so good at destroying cells and causing illness that they ultimately kill their host before they have time to spread.

But a chicken virus that represents one of the deadliest germs in history breaks from this conventional wisdom, thanks to an inadvertent effect from a vaccine. Chickens vaccinated against Marek’s disease rarely get sick. But the vaccine does not prevent them from spreading Marek’s to unvaccinated birds...

The reason this is a problem for Marek’s disease is because the vaccine is “leaky.” A leaky vaccine is one that keeps a microbe from doing serious harm to its host, but doesn’t stop the disease from replicating and spreading to another individual. On the other hand, a “perfect” vaccine is one that sets up lifelong immunity that never wanes and blocks both infection and transmission...
Sound familiar? The only difference is that the chicken virus has a much higher mortality rate in unvaccinated chickens than does Covid in unvaccinated people, but nevertheless, the vaccine is keeping people alive that would otherwise die (or at least get sick enough to self-quarantine as opposed to going out into public, vaccinated, feeling invincible, and with little or minor symptoms).

Moving on...
“Previously, a hot strain was so nasty, it wiped itself out. Now, you keep its host alive with a vaccine, then it can transmit and spread in the world,” Read said. “So it’s got an evolutionary future, which it didn’t have before.”

But does this evolutionary future breed more dangerous viruses? This study argues yes...
I won't get into the specifics of the experiments - you can read about them in the PBS article if you like or in the full text of the study, but the findings?
One way to look at that experiment is that shows vaccinating birds kills unvaccinated birds. The vaccination of one group of birds leads to the transmission of a virus so hot that it kills the other birds
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tt ... -dangerous

From the study itself:
Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/a ... io.1002198

And something I didn't even know:
Like Marek’s vaccines, vaccines for avian influenza are leaky. For this reason, they’re banned from agricultural use in the U.S. and Europe
Hear that? Leaky vaccines for avian flu are BANNED in Europe and the US. I never once heard this concern raised when the Covid vaccines were being developed.

The authors do go on to hypothesize how imperfect vaccines affect humans:
To test the imperfect vaccine hypothesis in humans, you would need monitor the vaccine response for either a large or isolated population for a long time. Doing this would allow a researcher to gauge how the vaccine interacts with the virus and if that relationship is evolving. Does the vaccine merely reduce symptoms, or does it also keep patients from getting infected and transmitting the virus?
Well, we have nearly a year's worth of data, and I think we already know the answers to some of those questions. It does NOT keep patients from getting infected or transmitting the virus. Also may explain why the Delta wave has been lingering for longer than the past waves before we had vaccines. This is playing out before our very eyes. People need to start recognizing that. Now to be fair, the authors do not necessarily suggest that leaky vaccines are bad. As they note, "even if this evolution happens, you don’t want to be an unvaccinated chicken." But they stress that we do "need to consider the evolutionary consequences...[of] leaky transmission."
I suspect if nothing else at least the vaccines are doing *something* which is a better outcome than if we didn’t have them and had gone on as usual. We’d have more dead and the medical system would have been fully overloaded.

You’re on a rather quixotic crusade that even the windmills are tired of.



bmw
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Re: This is a perfect time to revisit the 2015 chicken virus study

Post by bmw » Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:25 am

That's not really a fair statement towards me. The pro-vaccine, pro-lockdown crowd has been on far more of a "crusade" than I have been, including both people in positions of power who can do something about it, as well as in the general public who have no power but do speak on it. Just take a quick browse over the past year at the threads in this forum. The vast majority of Covid-related threads are people on a crusade to get everyone vaccinated. Countless threads dedicated to people who didn't get vaccinated then died from Covid.

I'm not on a crusade. I'm just increasingly confident in my position and putting the data and the studies out there for anybody interested in at least considering a different viewpoint. To the extent it appears I'm on a "crusade" it is probably because I'm constantly put on defense with the never-ending line of ad-hominem attacks and otherwise baseless attacks on just about everything I post in here on this topic. I carefully source everything I post in here on this subject and still I get baselessly attacked.

As to your comment on vaccines specifically - we don't have an answer to that yet as the pandemic is nearly 2 years old and still raging. Only once all is said and done can we legitimately answer the question of whether the vaccines were a good idea or not. I'm all for vaccines THAT WORK. Quite frankly I'm a bit surprised that there isn't an increasing set of criticism from the left on Donald Trump and his Operation Warp Speed that led to these leaky vaccines. Perhaps if we weren't in such a rush we could have created something better.



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Re: This is a perfect time to revisit the 2015 chicken virus study

Post by audiophile » Sat Nov 27, 2021 2:36 pm

I'm well familiar with Marek's disease, and yes I blame the vaccine for making it worse.


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Re: This is a perfect time to revisit the 2015 chicken virus study

Post by Rate This » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:40 am

bmw wrote:
Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:25 am
That's not really a fair statement towards me. The pro-vaccine, pro-lockdown crowd has been on far more of a "crusade" than I have been, including both people in positions of power who can do something about it, as well as in the general public who have no power but do speak on it. Just take a quick browse over the past year at the threads in this forum. The vast majority of Covid-related threads are people on a crusade to get everyone vaccinated. Countless threads dedicated to people who didn't get vaccinated then died from Covid.

I'm not on a crusade. I'm just increasingly confident in my position and putting the data and the studies out there for anybody interested in at least considering a different viewpoint. To the extent it appears I'm on a "crusade" it is probably because I'm constantly put on defense with the never-ending line of ad-hominem attacks and otherwise baseless attacks on just about everything I post in here on this topic. I carefully source everything I post in here on this subject and still I get baselessly attacked.

As to your comment on vaccines specifically - we don't have an answer to that yet as the pandemic is nearly 2 years old and still raging. Only once all is said and done can we legitimately answer the question of whether the vaccines were a good idea or not. I'm all for vaccines THAT WORK. Quite frankly I'm a bit surprised that there isn't an increasing set of criticism from the left on Donald Trump and his Operation Warp Speed that led to these leaky vaccines. Perhaps if we weren't in such a rush we could have created something better.
I’m equally surprised that those on the right don’t want Trump vaccines… is this like Trump Steaks or something?



bmw
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Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: This is a perfect time to revisit the 2015 chicken virus study

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:51 am

Rate This wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:40 am
I’m equally surprised that those on the right don’t want Trump vaccines… is this like Trump Steaks or something?
Outside of nutjobs on the far right who were going to buy the most absurd conspiracy theories no matter what (that it inserts a microchip, that it makes you magnetic, etc), and outside of people who are vaccine hesitant for non-political reasons (ie, people who have a high risk for adverse reactions, young people who have very low risk even if they get sick, etc), what remains is people who are vaccine-hesitant for largely political reasons.

I think within that group, vaccine hesitancy started with the left. Some people like to point to statements made by the left while Trump was still President (eg, if Trump says to take the vaccine, I'm not going to take it), but I don't think that's what is driving hesitancy today. I think it came as a result of the crusade to get everyone vaccinated being driven largely by the same people who over-played their hand in 2020 by locking down so much of society for way longer than was necessary. It is about government control and stiff-arm tactics, and what you're seeing today is a lot of conservatives simply rejecting the push to get vaccinated as a protest against the power grab that started last year. Simply put, they don't trust people like Faucci.

And now with the emergence of the latest variant, I think you're going to start seeing more people move to where I've been for some time now - into the camp of simply looking at the data and concluding that the vaccines not only aren't doing diddly squat to slow the spread, but that they may actually be prolonging the pandemic.



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